First study of fault trench stratigraphy at Mt. Etna volcano, Southern Italy: understanding Holocene surface faulting along the Moscarello fault

Paleoseismology, the study of past earthquakes based on their geological record in the stratigraphy and landscape, is a successful newly developing field of research. The application of fault trench studies in volcanic environments is one of the youngest branches of paleoseismology. In this paper, we present the results of the first exploratory trenches excavated at Mt. Etna in Sicily, the largest European volcano. Modern surface faulting at Etna is a very well known feature, which poses significant hazard to the local community, both in terms of ground displacement of essential lifelines and ground shacking from frequent damaging earthquakes. However, while the geomorphology and the seismicity of the active fault in the Etna region consistently show very high rates of tectonic activity, the Holocene cumulative throw and slip-rates, along with the nature (coseismic vs. creeping fault slip), dimension and timing of the displacement events, are still poorly constrained. For this purpose, we selected as a sample area the Moscarello fault, one of the most outstanding segment of the Timpe system of active normal faults in the volcano’s lower eastern flank. Displaced landforms and volcanic units at the Fondo Macchia basin, in the central sector of this fault, indicate some hundreds of meters of vertical offset in the last ca. 80 kyr, with a long-term slip-rate substantially higher than 1.5–2.0 mm/yr. According to the historical sources and instrumental observations, the Moscarello fault ruptured four times in the last 150 years during shallow (H < 5 km) and moderate magnitude (M < 4.8) earthquakes. These events were associated with severe damage in a narrow epicentral area (macroseismic intensities up to the IX–X grade of the MSK scale) and extensive surface faulting (end-to-end rupture length up to 6 km, vertical offsets up to 90 cm). This clearly indicates very high modern rates of deformation along this fault. We conducted trench investigations at the Fondo Macchia site, in a point where eyewitnesses observed ca. 20 cm of coseismic vertical displacement after the April 21, 1971, M_s=3.7, earthquake. The excavated sections provided direct stratigraphic evidence for a vertical slip-rate of 1.4–2.7 mm/yr in the last ca. 6 kyr. This should be regarded as a minimum slip-rate for the central section of the fault. We explored a single scarp at a single site, while we know from recent historical observations that several parallel scarps may rupture coseismically at Fondo Macchia. Thus, the relevant deformation rate documented for the modern period might be likely extended back in the past to a time-span of some thousands of years at least. As expected, for such a volcanic environment, the activity rates of the Moscarello fault are also significantly higher than for the Apennines normal faults, typically showing slip-rates lower than 1 mm/yr. The agriculturally reworked trench hangingwall stratigraphy did not allow to recognize individual displacement events. Nevertheless, the sedimentary structures observed in the trench footwall strongly suggest that, as for the last 150–200 years of detailed historical record, fault behavior at Fondo Macchia is governed by coseismic surface displacement rather than fault creep. This research confirms that paleoseismology techniques can be effectively applied also in active volcanic environments, typically characterized by rheology and, consequently, seismicity and fault dynamics very different from those of other tectonic environments in which paleoseismology has been firstly developed and is today extensively applied.     

Predictive Power Evaluation of a Physically Based Model for Shallow Landslides in the Area of Oltrepò Pavese,Northern Italy

The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km² wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F _S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena.     

CrystalMom: a new model for the evolution of crystal size distributions in magmas with the quadrature-based method of moments

Nucleation and growth of crystals, and the resulting crystal size distribution, play a fundamental role in controlling the physical properties of magmas and consequently the dynamics of the eruptions. In the past decades, laboratory experiments demonstrated that size and shape of crystals strongly control the physical properties of magma and lava. Additionally, natural and experimental samples are usually characterized in terms of their crystal size distribution to link it with physical processes that are not directly observable, such as cooling or decompression mechanisms. In this paper, we present CrystalMoM, a new predictive model, based on the quadrature-based method of moments, developed for studying the kinetic of crystallization in volcanic systems. The quadrature-based method of moments, well established in the field of chemical engineering, represents a mesoscale modelling approach that rigorously simulates the space–time evolution of a distribution of particles, by considering its moments. The method is applied here, for the first time, for studying the equilibrium/disequilibrium crystallization in magma, modelling the temporal evolution of the moments of a crystal size distribution. The model, verified against numerical and experimental data, represents a valuable tool to infer the cooling and decompression rates from the crystal size distribution observed in natural samples.     

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.     

An improved processing sequence for uncorrelated Chirp sonar data

Chirp sonar systems can be used to obtain high resolution seismic reflection images of the sub-seafloor during marine surveys. The exact knowledge of the Chirp signature allows the use of deterministic algorithms to process the data, similarly to that applied to Vibroseis data on land. Here, it is described an innovative processing sequence to be applied to uncorrelated Chirp data, which can improve vertical and lateral resolution compared to conventional methods. It includes application of a Wiener filter to transform a frequency-modulated sweep into a minimum-phase pulse sequence. In this way, the data become causal and can undergo predictive deconvolution to reduce ringing and enhance vertical resolution. Afterwards, FX-deconvolution and Stolt migration can be applied to obtain an improved imaging of the subsurface. The result of this procedure is a seismic reflection image with higher resolution than traditional ones, which are normally represented using the envelope function of the signal. This technique can be particularly useful for engineering-geotechnical surveys and archaeological investigations that require a fine detail imaging of the uppermost meters of the sub-seafloor.