Earthquake early warning feasibility in the Campania region (southern Italy) and demonstration system for public school buildings

We present the results of a feasibility study of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) for the Campania region (southern Italy) using schools as specific targets. The study considered the seismogenic zones as sources of potential earthquakes for the area, the Italian accelerometric network as the recording network for seismic event occurrence, and the performances of the software platform PRESTo ^Plus for data analysis and processing. We analyze the distribution of lead-times for all possible threatening seismic sources for each municipality in the region under study by extracting the lead-time value corresponding to the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles of the distributions. We discuss the results for the 5th percentile in order to analyze the worst-case scenario: in the case of a single site, the lead-time is expected to be larger than this value in the 95 % of the cases. Since the population distribution in Campania is uneven and most of the people live nearby the coast, whilst the most destructive earthquakes occur along the Apennine chain, we can conclude that an efficient EEWS can allow most of the schools in the area to undertake some mitigating actions. The testing of the EEWS was carried out in the high school ITIS ‘E. Majorana’, located at Somma Vesuviana, about 80 km from the seismogenic Irpinia region. For this purpose, the Sentinel, an actuator made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino^®), was developed in close cooperation with students and teachers of the school to receive alert messages from the PRESTo ^Plus platform and warn the school users in case of a seismic event. The EEWS and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.     

Improving ShakeMap performance by integrating real with synthetic data: tests on the 2009 M w?=?6.3 L’Aquila earthquake (Italy)

The ShakeMap software automatically generates maps of the peak ground motion parameters (shakemaps) and of instrumental intensity soon after an earthquake. Recorded data are fundamental to obtaining accurate results. In case observations are not available, ShakeMap relies on ground motion predictive equations, but due to unmodelled site conditions or finite fault effects, large uncertainties may appear, mainly in the near-source area where damage is relevant. In this paper, we aim to account for source effects in ShakeMap by computing synthetics to be used for integrating observations and ground motion predictive equations when near-source data are not available. To be effective, the computation of synthetics, as well as of the finite fault, should be done in near real time. Therefore, we computed rapid synthetic seismograms, by a stochastic approach, including the main fault features that were obtained through inversion of regional and teleseismic data. The rapidity of calculation is linked to a number of assumptions, and simplifications that need testing before the procedure can run in automatic mode. To assess the performance of our procedure, we performed a retrospective validation analysis considered as case study of the M _w = 6.3 earthquake, which occurred in central Italy on April 6, 2009. In that case, the first shakemaps, generated a few minutes after the earthquake, suffered large uncertainties on ground motion estimates in an area closer to the epicenter due to the lack of near-field data. To verify our approach, we recomputed shakemaps for the L’Aquila earthquake, integrating data available soon after the earthquake at different elapse times with synthetics, and we compared our shaking map with the final shakemap, obtained when all the data were available. Our analysis evidences that (1) when near-source data are missing, the integration of real data with synthetics reduces discrepancies between computed and actual ground shaking maps, mainly in the near-field zone where the damage is relevant and (2) the approach that we adopted is promising in trying to reduce such discrepancies and could be easily implemented in ShakeMap, but some a priori calibration is necessary before running in an automatic mode.     

Wood storage in three mountain streams of the Southern Andes and its hydro‐morphological effects

This study analyses large wood (LW) storage and the associated effects on channel morphology and flow hydraulics in three third‐order mountain basins (drainage area 9–12 km²) covered in old‐growth Nothofagus forests, ranging from the temperate warm Chilean Andean Cordillera to the sub‐Antarctic Tierra del Fuego (Argentina). Amount, characteristics and dimensions of large wood (>10 cm diameter, >1 m long) were recorded, as well as their effects on stream morphology, hydraulics and sediment storage. Results show that major differences in LW abundance exist even between adjacent basins, as a result of different disturbance histories and basin dissection. Massive LW volumes (i.e. >1000 m³ ha^?1) can be reached in basins disturbed by fires followed by mass movements and debris flows. Potential energy dissipation resulting from wood dams is about a quarter of the total elevation drop in two streams, with a gross sediment volume stored behind wood dams of around 1000 m³ km^?1, which appears to be of the same order as the annual sediment yield. Finally, the presence of wood dams may increase flow resistance by up to one order of magnitude. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of HVSR technique by self-organizing map (SOM) analysis

Data interpretation is one of the most important and thorny tasks in geosciences. Difficulties occur especially in non-invasive geophysical techniques and/or when the data that have to be analyzed are multidimensional, non-linear and highly noisy. Another important task is to ensure an efficient automatic data analysis, in order to allow a data interpretation as independent as possible from any a priori knowledge. This paper describes the post-processing application of a kind of neural network (self-organizing map, SOM) to the identification of the fundamental HVSR frequency of a given site. SOM results can be represented as two-dimensional maps, with a non-parametric mapping that projects the high dimensional original dataset in a fashion that provides both an unsupervised clustering and a highly visual representation of the data relationships. This innovative application of the SOM algorithm is presented with a case study related to the characterization of a mineral deposit.     

Effect of streamflow stochasticity on bedform-driven hyporheic exchange

The interactions between the stream and the geomorphologic units that compose the stream channel result in an exchange of water, heat, and chemicals that is an important component of the flows of energy and nutrients in the river ecosystem. This exchange is characterized by complex spatial and temporal dynamics that depend on the characteristics of the stream flow and morphology. At present, many studies have addressed the development of spatial patterns of hyporheic exchange that are induced by many geomorphological factors at different scales. However, much less is known about the temporal evolution of the surface–subsurface exchange in response to the dynamics of the stream discharge. In order to investigate this problem, the present work analyzes the influence of streamflow variability on the hyporheic exchange induced by fluvial bedforms. A stochastic approach is employed to generate streamflow series whose statistical properties are representative of streams with different hydrological regimes. The resulting exchange fluxes and travel times are then computed, and the relationships between the streamflow regime and the dynamics of the exchange flux and travel times are investigated. The results show that the mean stream discharge can be used to estimate the average features of the temporal dynamics of hyporheic exchange. Moreover, exchange fluxes and residence times distributions exhibit significant fluctuations, which are tightly related to the coefficient of variation of the streamflow hydrograph.     

Metamorphic conditions and structural evolution of the Kesebir-Kardamos dome: Rhodope metamorphic complex (Greece-Bulgaria)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The synmetamorphic nappe system of the Rhodope Metamorphic Complex has been deformed into dome-and-basin structures attributed to syn- to post-convergent...     

The role of the lowermost boundary conditions in the hydrological response of shallow sloping covers

In many areas of the world, slopes covered by shallow unsaturated non-plastic soil layers experience rainfall-induced landslides causing heavy damage and casualties every year. Landslide occurrence depends on the amount of water infiltrated and stored. Among the contributing factors are the hydraulic conditions at the lowermost boundary, a feature that is often disregarded. The paper focuses on this topic, presenting the results of some laboratory and numerical experiments on ash-pumice interfaces. A strategy is then proposed for selecting the lowermost boundary condition, and some studies are carried out to compare the results obtained with the proposed solution and other more popular ones.     

The MED-SUV virtual research environment for enabling the GEO Geohazard supersites in Italy

This paper presents the Virtual Research Environment (VRE) enabling two European GEO Geohazard Supersites in Italy. According to GEO (Group on Earth Observation) vision, Geohazard Supersites provide access to spaceborne and in-situ geophysical data and models for selected sites prone to natural hazards –noticeably, earthquakes and volcano eruptions. The VRE was implemented in the framework of the Mediterranean Supersite Volcanoes (MED-SUV) project, funded by the European Commission. MED-SUV realized one of the European supersite demonstrators covering the two Permanent Supersites selected in Italy: Mt. Etna and Campi Flegrei/Vesuvius. The MED-SUV VRE provides advanced services for heterogeneous data and information management and sharing. MED-SUV started identifying the main supersite requirements including: the interoperability with existing data/information supply systems, the support of policy-based access control, the access to processing capabilities provided by external platforms, the management resources for publishing and sharing new products, the integration with significant global systems such as GEOSS and EPOS. MED-SUV adopted a System of Systems (SoS) approach to address interoperability with the identified heterogeneous systems supplying data and information. The SoS approach is based on a brokering architecture, where a specialized component (i.e the MED-SUV Broker: MSB) connects the existing and next-coming data sources leaving them autonomous. MSB carries out all the necessary mediation and harmonization tasks exposing standard interfaces enabling the interconnection with external systems like GEOSS and EPOS. In addition, MSB is accessible via a JavaScript library implementing Web APIs to facilitate the development of Web and mobile applications.