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91.
92.
In recent decades, the need of future climate information at local scales have pushed the climate modelling community to perform increasingly higher resolution simulations and to develop alternative approaches to obtain fine-scale climatic information. In this article, various nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations have been used to try to identify regions across North America where high-resolution downscaling generates fine-scale details in the climate projection derived using the “delta method”. Two necessary conditions were identified for an RCM to produce added value (AV) over lower resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the fine-scale component of the climate change (CC) signal. First, the RCM-derived CC signal must contain some non-negligible fine-scale information—independently of the RCM ability to produce AV in the present climate. Second, the uncertainty related with the estimation of this fine-scale information should be relatively small compared with the information itself in order to suggest that RCMs are able to simulate robust fine-scale features in the CC signal. Clearly, considering necessary (but not sufficient) conditions means that we are studying the “potential” of RCMs to add value instead of the AV, which preempts and avoids any discussion of the actual skill and hence the need for hindcast comparisons. The analysis concentrates on the CC signal obtained from the seasonal-averaged temperature and precipitation fields and shows that the fine-scale variability of the CC signal is generally small compared to its large-scale component, suggesting that little AV can be expected for the time-averaged fields. For the temperature variable, the largest potential for fine-scale added value appears in coastal regions mainly related with differential warming in land and oceanic surfaces. Fine-scale features can account for nearly 60 % of the total CC signal in some coastal regions although for most regions the fine scale contributions to the total CC signal are of around ~5 %. For the precipitation variable, fine scales contribute to a change of generally less than 15 % of the seasonal-averaged precipitation in present climate with a continental North American average of ~5 % in both summer and winter seasons. In the case of precipitation, uncertainty due to sampling issues may further dilute the information present in the downscaled fine scales. These results suggest that users of RCM simulations for climate change studies in a delta method framework have little high-resolution information to gain from RCMs at least if they limit themselves to the study of first-order statistical moments. Other possible benefits arising from the use of RCMs—such as in the large scale of the downscaled fields– were not explored in this research. 相似文献
93.
E. Mediavilla S. Arribas B. Garcia-Lorenzo C. Del Burgo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,248(1-2):151-157
We discuss the multi-Gaussian decomposition of the [O III] λλ 4959,5007 emission line profiles from 2-D spectroscopy. We found that a model based on five main gaseous components can reproduce the observed line profiles consistently. The morphology of the intensity maps of some of these gaseous subsystems seems bipolar. This is in better agreement with current ideas about the alignment of the ionization in AGNs than the relatively amorphous morphology seen in filter images. The centre of the inter-pole region is sited ~ 2″ NE of the optical nucleus, close to the origin of the strong outflow of ionized gas recently reported (Arribas et al. 1996). This suggests that the putative hidden nucleus of NGC 1068 could be sited near to this point. 相似文献
94.
The D'Alembert model for the spin/orbit problem in celestial mechanics is considered. Using a Hamiltonian formalism, it is shown that in a small neighborhood of a p:q spin/orbit resonance with (p,q) different from (1,1) and (2,1) the 'effective' D'Alembert Hamiltonian is a completely integrable system with phase space foliated by maximal invariant curves; instead, in a small neighborhood of a p:q spin/orbit resonance with (p,q) equal to (1,1) or (2,1) the 'effective' D'Alembert Hamiltonian has a phase portrait similar to that of the standard pendulum (elliptic and hyperbolic equilibria, separatrices, invariant curves of different homotopy). A fast averaging with respect to the 'mean anomaly' is also performed (by means of Nekhoroshev techniques) showing that, up to exponentially small terms, the resonant D'Alembert Hamiltonian is described by a two-degrees-of-freedom, properly degenerate Hamiltonian having the lowest order terms corresponding to the 'effective' Hamiltonian mentioned above. 相似文献
95.
Mason H. E. Young P. R. Pike C. D. Harrison R. A. Fludra A. Bromage B. J. I. Del Zanna G. 《Solar physics》1997,170(1):143-161
The Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) has as a scientific goal the determination of the physical parameters of the solar plasma using spectroscopic diagnostic techniques. Absolute intensities and intensity ratios of the EUV spectral emission lines can be used to obtain information on the electron density and temperature structure, element abundances, and dynamic nature of different features in the solar atmosphere. To ensure that these techniques are accurate it is necessary to interface solar analysis programs with the best available atomic data calculations. Progress is reported on this work in relation to CDS observations. 相似文献
96.
Valentina?MontaldoEmail author Ezio?Faccioli Gaetano?Zonno Aybige?Akinci Luca?Malagnini 《Journal of Seismology》2005,9(3):295-316
In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms
of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions)
was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as
well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure,
in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments
and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions
and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection
of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation
relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed
by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities. 相似文献
97.
The central part of the Apulia region, in southern Italy, has been generally considered practically free from significant level of seismicity, but historical documentation, geological indicators and recent instrumental observations suggest that the activity of local minor tectonic structures could have been masked (and partly also induced) by that of major seismogenic structures located in the neighbouring regions. A revision of the central Apulia seismicity characteristics was conducted considering its space and time distribution, energy release rate and focal mechanisms, in view of possible hazard implications. To better constrain the seismicity rates inferable from the set of available historical data, special attention was paid to the declustering of a catalogue of low energy events (magnitude < 3.5) instrumentally detected in about 20 years: a new declustering procedure, useful for cases like to the one at hand, was purposely devised taking into account the peculiarity of local seismicity characteristics and the limitations of the available database. The results obtained by combining instrumental and historical data show that this area is affected by a rather sporadic seismicity, likely associated to a general tensional regime and possibly stimulated by the interaction with Apenninic and northern Apulia seismogenic activity. Even though less energetic, the local seismicity contributes to increase the moderately damaging shaking probability due to the activity of seismic sources located in the near areas, so to justify the adoption of at least a minimum level of caution in relation to the local definition of seismic protection measures. 相似文献
98.
Antonio?VecchioEmail author Leonardo?Primavera Vincenzo?Carbone Luca?Sorriso-Valvo 《Solar physics》2005,229(2):359-372
We use the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to investigate the spatiotemporal features of the solar activity. Daily observation
in the period 1949–1996 of the green coronal emission line at 530.3 nm are used as indicators of the activity behavior. We
show that few POD modes suffice in describing both the space and time main periodicities. In particular, being affected by
a strongly energetic stochastic behavior, daily data are described by five POD modes, while two POD modes are enough to describe
the butterfly diagram in monthly averaged data. Apart from the basic period T0 = 11 years, using daily data we found evidences for intercycle temporal periodicities. 相似文献
99.
Statistics on the temporal variability of uv cloud features on Venus during 66 days of nominal mission imaging by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Cloud Photopolarimeter reveal at least five types of systematic variability on large scales: (1) a low-latitude global-scale wave of period 3.94 ± 0.1 days corresponding to longitudinal motion of the dark equatorial band and propagating westward relative to the mean flow; (2) a midlatitude wave of period 5.20 ± 0.2 days corresponding to wavenumber 1 oscillations of the latitude of the bright polar bands and propagating eastward relative to the mean flow; (3) ~2- to 3-week fluctuations in the slope of longitudinal cloud brightness power spectra at intermediate wavenumbers manifested by variations in the intensity of large bow-shaped features; (4) ~2-month variations in polar region brightness consistent with polar brightening episodes observed from Earth; and (5) a monotonic decrease in the disk-integrated brightness of Venus during the nominal mission which may be either a true time variation or a solar-locked longitudinal dependence of brightness. Small-scale features appear to correlate with large-scale albedo patterns. Specifically, cellular features exist primarily where large-scale dark material is present, while the orientation of streak features with respect to latitude circles oscillates with the same ~4-day period as the large-scale features at low latitudes. The wide range of time scales present in the data suggests the complexity of Venus stratospheric dynamics. Extended observations over many years may be becessary to define the general circulation. 相似文献
100.
旋转扰动流体中壁面湍流不稳定及其拟序结构研究Ⅱ:数值模式 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
对第一部分的实验结果进行了讨论,指出局地最大、最小涡度的存在与所谓的正压不稳定和大气中经常观测到的滚动涡有关。速度廓线中的拐点和涡度极大值点对应不稳定发展的位置。另外,为了改进湍流的模拟,根据“准正则”近似,发展了一个三阶闭合模式。这个模型已被证明可以描述与湍流过程有关的流体动力学变量的趋势。 相似文献