一个有大地形影响的初始方程数值予报模式

大地形对大尺度大气运动的动力和热力作用早已为人们所注意。尤其是青藏高原,国内外气象工作者对它的研究工作越来越多。至于对大地形附近的局地天气系统的模拟和予报,则更有必要考虑地形的作用。 目前,国内外大多数模式在解决地形问题时,都采用了σ座标系,因为这样一来,地形面就成为一个座标面,计算很方便。但是,根据一般坐标变换的原理,气压梯度力项变成两大项的余差,在差分计算时,尤其在地形的陡坡附近会出现很大的误差。因此,不得不     

玉林夏季高温天气气候特征与环流形势分析

利用近50年（1961～2010年）广西玉林站的气温、风、相对湿度、日照等地面观测资料及历史天气图、NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,统计分析了玉林夏季高温天气的气候特征并探讨出现高温天气的大气环流形势。结果表明：（1）玉林高温天气主要出现在6-9月,3d以上的持续高温主要出现在7～8月,且高温日数的年际差异很大。玉林高温...     

Fe3+纳米胶体颗粒的光吸收边蓝移与溶液中Al/Fe比的关系

合成了n（Al）／n（Fe）和碱化度不同的45个聚合氯化铝铁（PAFC）样品,进行了光谱分析,结果显示光吸收边蓝移或红移以及Fe（Ⅲ）羟基氧化物和Al-Fe共聚体纳米胶体颗粒大小分布与溶液的Al／Fe比和碱化度（B=[OH]／[Al＋Fe]）密切相关。电镜观察和电子衍射分析表明：Al（Ⅲ）的加入使Fe（Ⅲ）羟基氧化物和Al-Fe共聚体纳米胶体颗粒变小、有序度降低是造成PAFE光吸收边蓝移和保持胶体颗粒在亚稳定状态下存在的重要原因。当n（Al）／n（Fe）〉8：2后,PAFC溶液中Fe（Ⅲ）羟基氧化物和Al-Fe共聚体胶体主要以〈10m的纳米颗粒形态存在,对应的光谱能级提高到26000cm^-1以上,且各种曰值下Fe^3＋的光谱能级趋于一致。这表明,在大量Al（Ⅲ）存在条件下,PAFE中Fe3^＋的所处的化学环境相似。点能谱分析显示,n（Al）／n（Fe）=4：6的样品中颗粒物的化学计量比最接近AlOOH,FeOOH,溶液的稳定性最差。     

MODIS遥感监测滇池蓝藻水华分布

以中分辨率的MODIS数据作为遥感影像源,运用蓝藻水华在蓝波段、红波段和近红外波段的光谱特征,使用假彩色合成法（RGB：6-2-1）和归一化植被指数法对滇池的蓝藻水华进行遥感监测。通过星地同步试验,证明了该两种方法的正确性。其中假彩色合成法通过色彩差异表现蓝藻水华,具有视觉效果较好的优点,归一化植被指数法则以数值大小的方式区别水华浓度,该方法建立反演模型后可用于定量研究。     

北京地区城市热岛强度长期变化特征及气候学影响机制

选择北京地区为研究区,基于1967~2016年城市站（北京站）和城郊农村站（密云站）的长期气象观测数据,研究平均气温、最高气温、最低气温对应的城市热岛强度长期变化特征及其气候学影响机制。研究发现,过去50 a平均气温和最低气温对应的城市热岛强度显著增加,增温率分别为0.29℃/10a和0.45℃/10a,而最高气温对应的城市热岛强度则没有明显变化趋势;统计分析显示过去50 a北京地区相对湿度、风速和日照时数显著降低以及气温显著上升有利于城市热岛的形成,强化城市热岛强度;未来全球变暖和快速城市化背景下北京地区城市热岛效应将进一步加剧,形成更频繁和持续时间更长的夏季城市高温热浪,严重危及城市居民生产生活和生命健康。     

厦门浔江湾小型底栖生物数量分布及生态意义

本文首次报道 1 998年 5月厦门浔江湾水域 5个测站小型底栖生物调查的初步结果。小型底栖动物的平均密度为 5 9.6 5个 /cm2 ,自由生活的海洋线虫是优势类群 ,占总密度的 89.2 8% ;其次 ,底栖桡足类占 2 .76 % ;其它类群所占比例较少。小型底栖生物的丰度分布为湾口区底 ,湾中部高。文中分析了小型底栖生物具有高类群优势度和低类群多样性特征 ,以及线虫与桡足类的丰度比率与环境的关系 ,提出浔江湾水域环境状况应引起重视。     

中纬度夏季一次深厚对流过程的数值模拟研究:高空热力层结和风切变影响

针对一次发生在中纬度夏季的深厚对流过程进行的数值模拟研究的结果,引入一个较详细描述深厚对流状态下云微物理过程的参数化方案,对一个有限差分三维非静力弹性大气数值模式进行了改进.数值模拟得到了与天气雷达观测一致的结果.结果还显示,对于这次穿透高度超过了对流层顶的深厚对流过程,与高空斜压扰动有关的上对流层弱稳定热力层结对系统的维持起到了重要的作用.另外,还发现强烈的对流发展到对流层顶的高度时,受上曳体的驱动,在对流层顶附近的稳定层结中产生浮力性的扰动;它们与风切变相结合,进而对系统的水平移动产生控制作用.     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

Production and Certification of Synthetic Selenium Isotopic Reference Materials

Due to intensive research into selenium isotopes in recent years, the increasing requirement for reliable and comparable measurement results has created a strong demand for selenium isotopic certified reference materials (iCRM) that were previously not available. To address this, eleven selenium iCRMs were developed, including ten synthetic iCRMs (GBW 04447–GBW 04456) and one natural iCRM (GBW 04457). The synthetic iCRMs were prepared with ⁷⁶Se, ⁷⁸Se, ⁸⁰Se and ⁸²Se solutions and a natural selenium solution; the natural iCRM was prepared with highly pure selenium material. The property values of isotope ratios in these iCRMs were certified by calibrated mass spectrometry with a collision cell multi‐collector ICP‐MS. The mass discrimination effect of the instrument was corrected with corresponding ⁷⁸Se/⁷⁶Se isotope mixtures and ⁸²Se/⁷⁶Se isotope mixtures, which were gravimetrically prepared with purified, isotopically enriched selenium materials. Homogeneity and stability tests were performed, and no significant influences were found. The uncertainty of the property values of the iCRMs was evaluated according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) of ISO/BIPM and ISO Guide 35. The δ^82/76Se value of GBW 04457 relative to NIST SRM 3149 was also calculated. These iCRMs are intended for use in calibration of instruments and evaluation of methods for the determination of selenium isotope ratios.