Getting Canadians prepared for natural disasters: a multi-method analysis of risk perception,behaviors, and the social environment

As part of our broader research agenda on the psychology of risk communication and of risk management, we use a socio-ecological approach, inspired by Bronfenbrenner (Am Psychol 32:513–531, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066x.32.7.513), to better understand how Canadians perceive and prepare for risks originating from natural disasters. In this article, we present three empirical mixed-method studies as layers of analysis—a national survey, a social-spatial multi-level analysis, and a series of qualitative interviews—to bring a better understanding of how to engage Canadians in disaster preparedness and risk management. From our data, we examined how individuals perceived and understood natural disaster risks in Canada and how these fit in their social and life contexts. Given the increasingly diverse Canadian population, we used a cultural lens to contrast immigrants to Canadian-born individuals. After introducing the conceptual background and presenting our empirical studies, we conclude with a discussion on the implications for risk communication and management for natural disasters. Our findings suggest that Canadians could benefit from culturally targeted disaster risk reduction strategies that engage individuals–communities–government at all levels and are more attuned to the realities and specificities of life stressors.

     

The Effect of Bottle Fill Rate and Pour Technique on the Recovery of Volatile Organics

This field study was conducted to examine whether the method or the flow rate (fill rate) used to fill a sample vial affects recovery of volatile organics (VOCs). To our knowledge, there have not been any systematic studies that have examined this issue. For this field study, three fill rates (50 mL/min, 250 mL/min, and ~1 L/min) and three filling methods (top‐pour, side‐pour, and bottom‐fill) were used to fill sample vials. We found that the bottom‐fill method, with the tubing submerged in the sample as it fills, yielded the greatest recovery (i.e., highest concentrations) of VOCs. Little improvement was observed by pouring down the side of a vial vs. simply pouring straight down from the top. We also found that filling the vials at the fastest fill rate (~1 L/min) yielded higher recovery than the slowest fill rate (50 mL/min) using all three filling methods. These results are counter to prevailing guidance and conventional wisdom that slower filling is preferable to faster filling and that pouring down the side of a sample vial is the best practice for VOC sampling. However, because we were unable to randomize the order the samples were collected with respect to fill rate, we recommend a follow‐on study be conducted that will allow us to confirm our findings and better determine which fill rates minimize losses of VOCs     

Reconnaissance report and preliminary ground motion simulation of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The M _w = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, caused destruction over a wide area. The earthquake cost more than 69,000 lives and the damage is reported to have left more than 5 million people homeless. It is estimated that 5.36 million buildings were destroyed and 21 million buildings were damaged in Sichuan and the nearby provinces. Economic losses due to the event are estimated to be 124 billion USD. From a field reconnaissance trip conducted in October 2008, it is evident that the combination of several factors, including mountainous landscape, strong ground shaking, extensive landslides and rock-falls, has exacerbated the human and economic consequences of this earthquake. Extensive damage occurred over a wide area due to the shear size of the earthquake rupture combined with poor quality building construction. In order to investigate the ground shaking during the earthquake, we have conducted a strong ground motion simulation study, applying a hybrid broadband frequency technique. The preliminary results show large spatial variation in the ground shaking, with the strongest ground motions along the fault plane. The simulation results have been calibrated against the recorded ground motion from several near-field stations in the area, and acceleration values of the order of 1 g are obtained, similar to what was recorded during the event. Comparison with the damage distribution observed in the field confirms that the effect of fault rupture complexity on the resulting ground motion distribution also controls to a large extent the damage distribution. The applied simulation technique provides a promising platform for predictive studies.     

EUREC<Superscript>4</Superscript>A: A Field Campaign to Elucidate the Couplings Between Clouds,Convection and Circulation

Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of trade-cumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of trade-cumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air–sea interactions and convective organization.     

Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002–2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the “real” sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.     

The role of innovation in advancing understanding of hydrological processes

Innovation and understanding hydrological processes are intimately linked. Existing research has demonstrated the role of technological, societal, and political drivers in shaping and delivering new understandings in hydrological processes. In this paper we pose three research questions to explore how innovation can further our understanding of hydrological processes, if working towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) provides a helpful focus, and whether specific mechanisms can be used to facilitate innovation and research into hydrological processes. First, we examine key aspects of innovation and explore innovation in the context of water security. We then present a series of innovation projects to determine their effectiveness in delivering innovation in managing hydrological processes, but also their contribution to scientific understanding. Our research suggests that product and process innovation were more closely related to increasing scientific understanding of hydrological processes than other forms of innovation. The NE Water Hub demonstrated that the design of the innovation ecosystem was crucial to its success and provides a model to integrate innovation and research more widely to further scientific understanding and deliver behaviour change to address the SDGs.     

Cosmic microwave background constraints on the epoch of reionization

We use a compilation of cosmic microwave anisotropy data to constrain the epoch of reionization in the Universe, as a function of cosmological parameters. We consider spatially flat cosmologies, varying the matter density Ω₀ (the flatness being restored by a cosmological constant), the Hubble parameter h and the spectral index n of the primordial power spectrum. Our results are quoted both in terms of the maximum permitted optical depth to the last-scattering surface, and in terms of the highest allowed reionization redshift assuming instantaneous reionization. For critical-density models, significantly tilted power spectra are excluded as they cannot fit the current data for any amount of reionization, and even scale-invariant models must have an optical depth to last scattering of below 0.3. For the currently favoured low-density model with Ω₀=0.3 and a cosmological constant, the earliest reionization permitted to occur is at around redshift 35, which roughly coincides with the highest estimate in the literature. We provide general fitting functions for the maximum permitted optical depth, as a function of cosmological parameters. We do not consider the inclusion of tensor perturbations, but if present they would strengthen the upper limits that we quote.     

Dark energy constraints on masses and sizes of large scale cosmic structures

The requirement that their gravitational binding self-energy density must at least equal the background repulsive dark energy density for large scale cosmic structures implies a mass-radius relation of \({M} / {R^{2}} \approx 1~\mbox{g}/{\mbox{cm}^{2}}\), as pointed out earlier. This relation seems to hold true for primeval galaxies as well as those at present epoch. This could set constraints on the nature and evolution of dark energy. Besides, we also set constraints on the size of galaxy clusters and superclusters due to the repulsive cosmological dark energy. This could indicate as to why large scale cosmic structures much larger than ～200 Mpc are not seen.