Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models

While seasonal time-varying models should generally be used to predict the daily concentration of ground-level ozone given its strong seasonal cycles, the sudden switching of models according to their designated period in an annual operational forecasting system may affect their performance, especially during the season’s transitional period in which the starting date and duration time can vary from year to year. This paper studies the effectiveness of an adaptive Bayesian Model Averaging scheme with the support of a transitional prediction model in solving the problem. The scheme continuously evaluates the probabilities of all the ozone prediction models (ozone season, nonozone season, and the transitional period) in a forecasting system, which are then used to provide a weighted average forecast. The scheme has been adopted in predicting the daily maximum of 8-h averaged ozone concentration in Macau for a period of 2 years (2008 and 2009), with results proved to be satisfactory.     

Short-term variability of multiple biomarker response in fish from estuaries: Influence of environmental dynamics

Short-term variability in biomarker responses and the effects of temperature and salinity variation were explored in three fish species (Dicentrarchus labrax, Solea senegalensis and Pomatoschistus microps) occurring in the Tejo estuary. Short-term variability in biomarkers was observed in all species although no pattern was discerned over time (days to weeks). Antioxidant enzymes activity (superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT)) showed low temporal variability, indicating some constancy or baseline level in antioxidant responses. Only CAT activity in S.?senegalensis was correlated with temperature, suggesting that exposure to contaminants triggered antioxidant acclimation. Higher short-term variability was observed in xenobiotic biotransformation enzymes activity (phase I ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) and phase II glutathione S-transferase (GST)). Yet a significant correlation between EROD and GST in D.?labrax and S.?senegalensis suggests a concomitant response to contaminants. Moreover the lack of correlation between xenobiotic biotransformation enzymes and abiotic variables on concordant time scales, suggest a high specificity of these biomarkers to chemical exposure, rather than high variability due to environmental dynamics.     

Resurfacing of Titan by ammonia-water cryomagma

The Cassini Titan Radar Mapper observed on Titan several large features interpreted as cryovolcanic during the October 26, 2004 pass at high northern latitudes [Lopes, R.M.C., and 43 colleagues, 2007. Icarus 186, 395-412]. To date, models of ammonia-water resurfacing have not been tied to specific events or evolutionary stages of Titan. We propose a model of cryovolcanism that involves cracking at the base of the ice shell and formation of ammonia-water pockets in the ice. As these ammonia-water pockets undergo partial freezing in the cold ice shell, the ammonia concentration in the pockets increases, decreasing the negative buoyancy of the ammonia-water mixture. If the ice shell is contaminated by silicates delivered in impacts, the liquid-solid density difference would be even less. While the liquid cannot easily become buoyant relative to the surrounding ice, these concentrated ammonia-water pockets are sufficiently close to the neutral buoyancy point that large-scale tectonic stress patterns (tides, non-synchronous rotation, satellite volume changes, solid state convection, or subsurface pressure gradients associated with topography) would enable the ammonia to erupt effusively onto the surface. Rather than suggesting steady-state volcanism over the history of the Solar System, we favor a scenario where the cryovolcanic features could have been associated with episodic (potentially late) geological activity.     

Implementation aspects of eigendecomposition‐based high‐resolution velocity spectra

In this paper, we discuss high‐resolution coherence functions for the estimation of the stacking parameters in seismic signal processing. We focus on the Multiple Signal Classification which uses the eigendecomposition of the seismic data to measure the coherence along stacking curves. This algorithm can outperform the traditional semblance in cases of close or interfering reflections, generating a sharper velocity spectrum. Our main contribution is to propose complexity‐reducing strategies for its implementation to make it a feasible alternative to semblance. First, we show how to compute the multiple signal classification spectrum based on the eigendecomposition of the temporal correlation matrix of the seismic data. This matrix has a lower order than the spatial correlation used by other methods, so computing its eigendecomposition is simpler. Then we show how to compute its coherence measure in terms of the signal subspace of seismic data. This further reduces the computational cost as we now have to compute fewer eigenvectors than those required by the noise subspace currently used in the literature. Furthermore, we show how these eigenvectors can be computed with the low‐complexity power method. As a result of these simplifications, we show that the complexity of computing the multiple signal classification velocity spectrum is only about three times greater than semblance. Also, we propose a new normalization function to deal with the high dynamic range of the velocity spectrum. Numerical examples with synthetic and real seismic data indicate that the proposed approach provides stacking parameters with better resolution than conventional semblance, at an affordable computational cost.     

Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae) invasion: a modeling exercise using a mechanistic model,CLIMEX

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study aimed to identify the global risk of invasion and establishment of Bedellia somnulentella, a pest of the sweet potato crop, for the present and...     

Forced imbibition into a limestone: measuring P‐wave velocity and water saturation dependence on injection rate

Quantitative interpretation of time‐lapse seismic data requires knowledge of the relationship between elastic wave velocities and fluid saturation. This relationship is not unique but depends on the spatial distribution of the fluid in the pore‐space of the rock. In turn, the fluid distribution depends on the injection rate. To study this dependency, forced imbibition experiments with variable injection rates have been performed on an air‐dry limestone sample. Water was injected into a cylindrical sample and was monitored by X‐Ray Computed Tomography and ultrasonic time‐of‐flight measurements across the sample. The measurements show that the P‐wave velocity decreases well before the saturation front approaches the ultrasonic raypath. This decrease is followed by an increase as the saturation front crosses the raypath. The observed patterns of the acoustic response and water saturation as functions of the injection rate are consistent with previous observations on sandstone. The results confirm that the injection rate has significant influence on fluid distribution and the corresponding acoustic response. The complexity of the acoustic response —‐ that is not monotonic with changes in saturation, and which at the same saturation varies between hydrostatic conditions and states of dynamic fluid flow – may have implications for the interpretation of time‐lapse seismic responses.     

Water retention characteristics of swelling clays in different compaction states

The soil–water retention (SWR) characteristics of the clays play an important role in controlling their engineering behaviour, particularly, in the unsaturated state. Although, researchers have attempted to understand the water retention characteristics of the clays in their reconstituted or remoulded state, such studies are rare for the clays in their intact state. In this context, it becomes important to understand the influence of initial state of compaction, which would create different pore and fabric structure (viz., microstructure), on the water retention characteristics of the clays. With this in view, SWR behaviour was experimentally determined for the swelling clays (dried from different compaction states, viz., intact, reconstituted and remoulded) by employing Dewpoint PotentiaMeter (WP4C®). The changes in the pore size distribution of the clays at different stages of drying cycle were also studied by employing the Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry. The study reveals that the SWR curves for the intact and reconstituted specimens of the clays converge beyond a certain stage of drying. Also, a critical analysis of changes in the pore structure of the swelling clay specimens, during drying, indicates that the progressively deforming pore structure plays an important role in controlling its water retention characteristics to a great extent.     

Variation in the mobilization of mercury into Black-winged Stilt Himantopus himantopus chicks in coastal saltpans,as revealed by stable isotopes

Causes of variation in mobilization of mercury into Black-winged Stilt Himantopus himantopus chicks were studied through analysis of stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen. Blood and breast feathers were collected from chicks in coastal saltpans during successive breeding seasons. Detritus samples and potential prey (macroinvertebrates) were also collected. Total mercury concentrations and stable isotope signatures were measured using atomic absorption spectroscopy and isotope ratio mass spectrometry respectively. Mercury levels in Chironomidae, Corixidae and Hydrophilidae correlated with mercury levels in chick feathers. Differences of δ¹⁵N signatures between macroinvertebrate groups indicated that they belong to different trophic levels. δ¹⁵N signatures of invertebrates correlated with mercury levels in invertebrates and chicks, but not with δ¹⁵N signatures in chicks. Between-group and between-site differences of δ¹⁵N signatures and mercury levels in invertebrates suggested that they contribute differently to mercury mobilization into chicks, and their relative contribution depends on prey availability in each site. Inter-site differences in the biomagnification factor reinforced that idea. δ¹³C signatures in invertebrates marked a larger range of carbon sources than just detritus. Variation of water inflow regime and prey availability may cause between-group and between-site differences of δ¹³C signatures in prey. Discrepancies between feather and blood for δ¹³C signatures in Praias-Sado and Vaia suggested that temporal variation of prey availability may be the main factor affecting mercury mobilization into chicks in both those cases, since their water inflow regimes are the same. The lowest levels of δ¹³C signatures in Vau suggested that water inflow regime may be the main factor in this case, since no discrepancy existed in δ¹³C signatures between blood and feather.     

Community structure and functional traits of mollusks associated with coastal reef macroalgae in Northeastern Brazil

This study investigated the community structure and functional traits of the mollusk fauna associated with macroalgae with different thallus morphologies in a reef environment in Northeastern Brazil. A total of 15 individuals of each species of macroalgae adhered to natural substrate and 15 individuals of Padina gymnospora detached from the substrate were collected. The structural complexity of algal habitats was measured and the associated malacofauna screened and identified. All three macroalgae differed significantly in the complexity of their habitat, with Sargassum polyceratium being the most complex. A total of 823 specimens of mollusks belonging to 22 species and 11 families were recorded, of which Columbellidae was the most represented with six species. The functional trait “size” revealed that micromollusks smaller than 10 millimeters were predominant in the community; however, individuals of larger sizes (up to 24.54 millimeters) belonging to young stages of other species were also present. Eight functional trophic groups were identified, of which “carnivorous” stood out with seven species. Six functional groups of microhabitats were identified, with intra‐specific variation in habitats, while habitat expansion was documented for species not yet recorded in association with macroalgae. The structure of the molluskan community differed among the three algae species with the greatest richness, abundance, and diversity of mollusks and functional traits occurring with S. polyceratium. Community structure differed between algae adhered to natural substrate and detached algae, with the latter having lower mollusk richness and diversity, but with greater abundance of some species that remained on algal fronds after release from the reef environment. This study reinforces the importance of algal habitat for marine invertebrate fauna, especially for micromollusks that spend their entire life cycle, or part of it, in association with macroalgae.