四川林农复合经营持续发展对策探讨

分析了四川林农复合经营的主要类型、效益与障碍，并探讨了其持续发展的原则、有利条件与对策．     

基于PS-DR-DP理论模型的区域资源环境承载力综合评价（英文）

The concepts of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity are important aspects of both academic inquiry and government policy. Although notable results have been achieved in terms of evaluating both these variables, most researchers have utilized a traditional analytical method that incorporates the "pressure-state-response" model. A new approach is proposed in this study for the comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity; applying a "pressure-support", "destructiveness-resilience", and "degradation-promotion"("PS-DR-DP") hexagon interaction theoretical model, we divided carrying capacity into these three pairs of interactive forces which correspond with resource supporting ability, environmental capacity, and risk-disaster resisting ability, respectively. Negative carrying capacity load in this context was defined to include pressure, destructiveness, and degradation, while support, resilience, and promotion comprised positive attributes. The status of regional carrying capacity was then determined via the ratio between positive and negative contribution values, expressed in terms of changes in both hexagonal shape and area that result from interactive forces. In order to test our "PS-DR-DP" theory-based model, we carried out a further empirical study on Beijing over the period between 2010 and 2015. Analytical results also revealed that the city is now close to attaining a perfect state for both resources and environmental carrying capacity; the latter state in Beijing increased from 1.0143 to 1.1411 between 2010 and 2015, an improved carrying capacity despite the fact that population increased by two million. The average contribution value also reached 0.7025 in 2015, indicating that the city approached an optimal loading threshold at this time but still had space for additional carrying capacity. The findings of our analysis provide theoretical support to enable the city of Beijing to control population levels below 23 million by 2020.     

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.     

内蒙武川后石花金矿床辉钼矿Re-Os同位素年龄及其地质意义

后石花金矿是华北克拉通北缘一小型石英脉型金矿床。对矿体5件辉钼矿样品的ReOs同位素分析,获得了介于280.3±3.8~283.0±3.9Ma,加权平均为282.0±1.8Ma(MSWD=0.28)的同位素模式年龄,以及一个相关性很好的等时线年龄281.9±1.8Ma(MSWD=0.57),表明矿床形成于早二叠世,推测是海西晚期古亚洲洋俯冲体制下陆缘弧背景中构造-热液成矿事件产物。综合区域资料认为,华北北缘中段在海西晚期曾发生过重要成矿作用,但多在后期被剥蚀破坏。华北北缘中段大陆弧范围内,叠加在前寒武纪结晶基底韧性剪切带之上的脆性断裂构造带,以及华北北缘早古生代增生带内部,是形成海西晚期金、钼矿床的有利部位。     

舟山港台风风暴潮的分析及预报

利用 1 956～ 2 0 0 0年舟山市定海验潮站潮位观测资料 ,对历年影响舟山的台风风暴潮灾进行了全面的统计分析。将台风按路径分型 ,分析了不同路径台风风暴潮的特点 ,并用基于PRESS准则的逐步回归方法 ,建立了不同路径风暴潮的预报模型。     

西北地区水资源环境与城市化系统耦合的时空分异——以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例

水资源是城市化与生态环境协调发展的重要限制因子,研究西北地区水资源环境与城市化系统耦合的时空分异规律,对于区域水资源、生态环境和社会经济系统可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。采用GRA方法,以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例,从时空角度定量揭示了甘肃段水资源环境与城市化系统耦合的时空分异规律,结果表明:(1)时间序列上整体呈波动下降趋势,表现为类似组合"S"型特征;空间上随人口城市化水平的提高,耦合度亦表现出与时间序列类似特征;时空耦合度相互印证,说明系统符合"各态遍历假说;"(2)不同阶段甘肃段各城市耦合度表现出较大差异,具有复杂的空间结构:以兰州市为中心向外耦合度"先升高后减小",表明水资源环境与城市化系统耦合度的高低不仅取决于城市自身发展等内部因素,而且与城市之间的区域差异、区域联系等外部因素有关。基于以上认知,在解决区域水资源环境与城市化关系问题时,除有效提高城市水资源环境适应及调控能力之外,还要协调好区域之间的关系,构建区域利益共同体以达到"双赢"的目的,这为落后地区解决发展中的资源环境问题提供了新的思路。     

三种非线性回归逐时气温预报比较订正

选取ECMWF和T639的2013年1月至2014年12月的数值预报场构造预报因子,基于神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数的非线性方法,预报地面逐时气温。试验结果显示,在单个方法预报误差较大时,3种方法的偏差订正集成方法更利于减小误差,通过偏差订正,3种非线性方法预报效果良好,平均绝对误差减小了0.5 ℃。在近1年独立样本的预报检验中,集成方法、神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.5 ℃、1.7 ℃、1．8 ℃和1．4 ℃,总体上构造函数预报更为准确。     

RC框架结构直接基于位移的抗震优化设计方法

探讨了静力弹塑性分析验证过程中遇到的几种情况及其产生原因,指出建筑结构设计方案在基于位移的抗震设计中的重要性。从框架结构的侧移模式出发,导出结构一定性能水平的目标顶点位移,建立结构目标顶点位移与等效位移的关系式,根据位移反应谱,由等效位移推出框架结构在各性能水平的目标周期。然后,由pushover曲线确定结构刚度退化机理,导出结构各性能水平相应的自振周期比例关系,根据结构各性能水平自振周期与目标周期的关系确定结构最优设计方案。通过例题加以验证,说明了此设计方法的可行性。     

中甸普朗还原性斑岩型铜矿床：矿物组合与流体组成约束

成矿流体高氧逸度是斑岩铜矿床模式的一个基本原则。虽然亚洲单个矿体储量最大的普朗铜矿床的成矿母岩——普朗复式岩体具氧化性岩浆特点,但其矿物组合及流体成分却与还原性斑岩型铜金矿床一致:矿石中以发育大量磁黄铁矿为特征,构成黄铜矿-磁黄铁矿-黄铁矿为主的矿物组合,不发育表征高氧逸度的原生磁铁矿和硫酸盐(硬石膏等)矿物;成矿流体中含较多CO₂、CO和CH₄等还原性组分,氧逸度低于铁橄榄石-磁铁矿-石英缓冲剂。成矿流体中还原性组分可能来源于普朗复式岩体周围的含碳质千枚岩或深部铁镁质岩浆。还原性流体中铜元素的溶解度比氧化性流体中的低,但金元素的溶解度不受氧化还原条件的影响;而CH₄可使SO₂还原形成S^2-,为辉钼矿的形成提供物质基础;可能是导致普朗铜矿床Cu品位偏低而伴生大量Au、Mo矿化的主要原因之一。普朗铜矿床还原性特征的厘定有益于深入研究其矿床成因、乃至区域斑岩型铜矿床成矿机制。