The radiative influence of aerosol effects on liquid-phase cumulus and stratiform clouds based on sensitivity studies with two climate models

Aerosol effects on warm (liquid-phase) cumulus cloud systems may have a strong radiative influence via suppression of precipitation in convective systems. A consequence of this suppression of precipitation is increased liquid water available for large-scale stratiform clouds, through detrainment, that in turn affect their precipitation efficiency. The nature of this influence on radiation, however, is dependent on both the treatment of convective condensate and the aerosol distribution. Here, we examine these issues with two climate models—CSIRO and GISS, which treat detrained condensate differently. Aerosol–cloud interactions in warm stratiform and cumulus clouds (via cloud droplet formation and autoconversion) are treated similarly in both models. The influence of aerosol–cumulus cloud interactions on precipitation and radiation are examined via simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol emissions. Sensitivity tests are also conducted to examine changes to climate due to changes in cumulus cloud droplet number (N _c); the main connection between aerosols and cumulus cloud microphysics. Results indicate that the CSIRO GCM is quite sensitive to changes in aerosol concentrations such that an increase in aerosols increases N _c, cloud cover, total liquid water path (LWP) and reduces total precipitation and net cloud radiative forcings. On the other hand, the radiative fluxes in the GISS GCM appear to have minimal changes despite an increase in aerosols and N _c. These differences between the two models—reduced total LWP in the GISS GCM for increased aerosols, opposite to that seen in CSIRO—appear to be more sensitive to the detrainment of convective condensate, rather than to changes in N _c. If aerosols suppress convective precipitation as noted in some observationally based studies (but not currently treated in most climate models), the consequence of this change in LWP suggests that: (1) the aerosol indirect effect (calculated as changes to net cloud radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols) may be higher than previously calculated or (2) lower than previously calculated. Observational constrains on these results are difficult to obtain and hence, until realistic cumulus-scale updrafts are implemented in models, the logic of detraining non-precipitating condensate at appropriate levels based on updrafts and its effects on radiation, will remain an uncertainty.     

Petrogenesis of picrite and associated basalts from the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Basalts dredged from the south wall of a fracture zone transecting the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (SMAR) at 54° S are unusual in that they include a suite of highly olivine phyric basalts, sampled along with more normal sparsely plagioclase phyric basalts, and a highly plagioclase phyric basalt. Four basalt types (olivine phyric, sparsely plagioclase phyric, evolved sparsely plagioclase phyric and highly plagioclase phyric) are readily distinguished on the basis of petrography, mineralogy and bulk composition. They range from primitive to evolved, with the olivine phyric basalts having elevated MgO (up to 15.5%) and the plagioclase phyric basalt having elevated Al₂O₃ (19.3%) and CaO (13.1%) contents. Compositional variations are extremely consistant, with the olivine phyric basalts and the sparsely plagioclase phyric basalts defining coherent linear trends. On the basis of the ratios and covariation of the incompatible trace elements Zr, Nb, Y and Ba, distinct parental magmas for each basalt type are required. An investigation of Fe-Mg and Mg-Ni distribution coefficients between olivine and magma indicates that olivines from the olivine phyric basalts are on average too forsteritic and too Ni poor to have crystallized in a magma corresponding to the host bulk rock composition. This implies that these basalts are enriched in xenocrystic olivine. Olivines from the other basalt types are mostly of equilibrium composition, although there are some exceptions. Petrogenetic models for the formation of the different basalt types are quantitatively evaluated in terms of fractional crystallization/crystal accumulation processes. These indicate that (1) the olivine phyric basalts are the products of olivine and minor Cr-spinel accumulation and do not represent analogues of primary magma, or a liquid fractionation trend; (2) that the sparsely plagioclase phyric basalts were formed by polybaric fractional crystallization of olivine, plagioclase and clinopyroxene; and (3) that the evolved sparsely plagioclase phyric basalts are not readily related to one another. The single highly plagioclase phyric basalt is unrelated to the other basalt types and is cumulus enriched in plagioclase.The different basalt types are unrelated to one another and document the presence of at least four distinct magma types erupted in close proximity at this ridge/transform intersection on the southern end of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.     

The relationship between solar activity and coronal hole evolution

We examine the relationship between coronal hole evolution and solar active regions during the Skylab period. We find a tendency for holes to grow or remain stable when the activity nearby, seen as calcium plages and bright regions in X-rays, is predominantly large, long-lived regions. This is consistent with results of previous studies, using somewhat different methods. We also find that there is a significantly higher number of small, short-lived active regions, as indicated by X-ray bright points, in the vicinity of decaying holes than there is near other holes. We interpret this to mean that holes disappear at least in part because they become filled with many small scale, magnetically closed, X-ray emitting features. This interpretation, together with the previously reported observation that the number of X-ray bright points was much larger near solar minimum than it was during the Skylab period, provides a possible explanation for the disappearance of the large, near-equatorial coronal holes at the time of solar minimum.     

Rapid changes in the fine structure of a coronal ‘bright point’ and a small coronal ‘active region’

A coronal bright point is resolved into a pattern of emission which, at any given time, consists of 2 or 3 miniature loops (each 2500 km in diameter and 12 000 km long). During the half-day lifetime of the bright point individual loops evolved on a time scale 6 min. A small ctive region seemed to evolve in this way, but the occasional blurring together of several loops made it difficult to follow individual changes.     

Solar Scintillometry: Calibration of Signals and its Use for Seeing Measurements

Since 1993 it is known that there is a good correlation between the scintillation in the solar irradiance and solar image quality (Seykora, 1993). This effect is now being used in a number of experiments to evaluate solar image quality and to measure site seeing. In this paper we explore further the calibration of this scintillation (_I) in terms of the Fried parameter (_r0) taking into account variations in the refractive index structure constant C _N ² with height (h), zenith distance () dependence and the effects of wind velocities. A variant in the scintillometer setup is proposed which decreases sharply the dependance on C _N ² , , and the wind velocities. It uses an array of scintillometers. The same array can be used to measure theC _N ² profile with height. Some preliminary results of the calibration of current NSO site survey measurements are presented.     

Salinity‐induced increase of the hydraulic conductivity in the hyporheic zone of coastal wetlands

In coastal zones globally, salinization is rapidly taking place due to the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, altered hydrology, and climate change. Although increased salinity levels are known to have a great impact on both biogeochemical and hydrological processes in aquatic sediments, only few studies have included both types of processes and their potential interactions. In the present paper, we used a controlled 3‐year experimental mesocosm approach to test salinity induced interactions and discuss mechanisms explaining the observed hydrological changes. Surface water salinity was experimentally increased from 14 to 140 mmol Cl per L (0.9 and 9 PSU) by adding sea salt which increased pore water salinity but also increased sulfate reduction rates, leading to higher sulfide, and lower methane concentrations. By analyzing slug test data with different slug test analysis methods, we were able to show that hydraulic conductivity of the hyporheic zone increased 2.8 times by salinization. Based on our hydrological and biogeochemical measurements, we conclude that the combination of pore dilation and decreased methane production rates were major controls on the observed increase in hydraulic conductivity. The slug test analysis method comparison allowed to conclude that the adjusted Bouwer and Rice method results in the most reliable estimate of the hydraulic conductivity for hyporheic zones. Our work shows that both physical and biogeochemical processes are vital to explain and predict hydrological changes related to the salinization of hyporheic zones in coastal wetlands and provides a robust methodological approach for doing so.     

Using and Improving Neural Network Models for Ground Settlement Prediction

Earth-fill structures such as embankments, which are constructed for the preservation of land and infrastructure, show significant amount of settlement during and after construction in lowland areas with soft grounds. Settlements are often still predicted with large uncertainty and frequently observational methods are applied using settlement monitoring results in the early stage after construction to predict the long term settlement. Most of these methods require a significant amount of measurements to enable accurate predictions. In this paper, an artificial neural network model for settlement prediction is evaluated and improved using measurement records from a test embankment in The Netherlands. Based on a learning pattern that focuses on convergence of the settlement rate, the basic model predicted settlements which were in good agreement with the measurements, when the amount of measured data used as teach data for the model exceeded a degree of consolidation of 69 %. For lower amounts of teach data the accuracy of settlement prediction was limited. To improve the accuracy of settlement prediction, it is proposed to add short-term predicted values that satisfy predefined statistical criteria of low coefficient of variance or low standard deviation to the teach data, after which the model is allowed to relearn and repredict the settlement. This procedure is repeated until all predicted values satisfy the criterion. Using the improved network model resulted in significantly better predictions. Predicted settlements were in good agreement with the measurements, even when only the measurements up to a consolidation stage of 35 % were used as initial teach data.