Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Autumn Drought Trend over China from 1961 to 2014

Understanding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought is of great significance to the prevention of its adverse effects. Two drought indices, stan...     

MODEL: a multicriteria ordinal evaluation tool for GIS

While the integration of geographical information systems (GIS) and multicriteria decision aiding (MCDA) has attracted increasing interest from researchers in recent years, due to the wide array of applications that can benefit from GIS as well as the different types of decision problems and various models that can be used through MCDA, plenty of opportunities of integrating GIS and MCDA remain. In this article, we present the result of such an opportunity in the form of a methodology and software that is currently used by the Naval Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service in France. Furthermore, this tool may be used in conjunction with other GIS–MCDA applications with a single decision maker, multiple decision makers or even where the decision has a hierarchical structure.     

Deposits related to degradation processes on Piton des Neiges Volcano (Reunion Island): overview and geological hazard

Piton des Neiges (PN) Volcano on Reunion Island offers a rare opportunity to study deposits related to degradation processes in a deeply eroded oceanic shield volcano. Both the inner parts and flanks reveal a large amount of resedimented volcaniclastic material, including extensive debris avalanche deposits. PN litho–structural units, first studied by Upton and Wadsworth [1965, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., A 271, pp. 105–130], are re-examined. This review highlights the importance of long volcanic repose periods and erosion processes during PN history. volcaniclastic deposits have been studied in the field in order to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of the three main types of PN degradation processes. The deposits of these processes have been classified into: (1) talus, (2) mudflow and debris flow, and (3) debris avalanche. Lithology, frequency and estimated volumes of each deposit type imply that the structural evolution of PN can be considered in terms of the competition between the volcanic productivity and the degradation and erosion processes. The occurrence of huge catastrophic avalanches produced by flank failure is convincingly linked to the basaltic activity of PN, which implies a very low risk at present. On the contrary, mudflows and debris flows pose an important risk due to the high population density focussed around the basin outlets. Moreover, if smaller debris avalanches can occur in the cirques of PN, another major risk must be evaluated.     

Evolution qualitative à long terme des rotifères du Lac Léman

Seventy-five species and lower taxonomic units of rotifers have been identified in Lake Geneva (= lac Léman); seven species and one form are new for the lake. When using indicators of trophic conditions, the qualitative composition of the biocenosis is still dominated by oligo-mesotrophic lake indicators, mixed with eutrophic and oligotrophic ones. However the rotifer biocenosis has not yet reached a steady state.

     

Following tracer through the unsaturated zone using a multiple interacting pathways model: Implications from laboratory experiments

Models must effectively represent velocities and celerities if they are to address the old water paradox. Celerity information is recorded indirectly in hydrograph observations, whereas velocity information is more difficult to measure and simulate effectively, requiring additional assumptions and parameters. Velocity information can be obtained from tracer experiments, but we often lack information on the influence of soil properties on tracer mobility. This study features a combined experimental and modelling approach geared towards the evaluation of different structures in the multiple interacting pathways (MIPs) model and validates the representation of velocities with laboratory tracer experiments using an undisturbed soil column. Results indicate that the soil microstructure was modified during the experiment. Soil water velocities were represented using MIPs, testing how the (a) shape of the velocity distribution, (b) transition probability matrices (TPMs), (c) presence of immobile storage, and (d) nonstationary field capacity influence the model's performance. In MIPs, the TPM controls exhanges of water between pathways. In our experiment, MIPs were able to provide a good representation of the pattern of outflow. The results show that the connectedness of the faster pathways is important for controlling the percolation of water and tracer through the soil. The best model performance was obtained with the inclusion of immobile storage, but simulations were poor under the assumption of stationary parameters. The entire experiment was adequately simulated once a time‐variable field capacity parameter was introduced, supporting the need for including the effects of soil microstructure changes observed during the experiment.     

Temperature dependence of the oxygen isotopic fractionation between diatom silica and water

We present a new paleotemperature scale, based on the oxygen isotopic ratio of the non-exchangeable fraction of the oxygen from diatom silica. The equation t = 17.2 − 2.4 (δ¹⁸O_silica − δ¹⁸O_water − 40) − 0.2 (δ¹⁸O_silica − δ¹⁸O_water − 40)² was derived using recent sediment samples from different oceanic areas, the temperature and isotopic composition of the local surface water. Comparison of our results with other relationships established for quartz-water or amorphous silica-water at higher temperature suggests no difference in isotopic fractionation between quartz-water and biogenic silica-water couples.     

Provenance record of late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene Andean Mountain building in the Amazonian retroarc foreland basin (Madre de Dios basin,Peru)

Biostratigraphic, sedimentological and provenance analyses suggest that a proto‐Andean Cordillera already existed in southern Peru by late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene times. A 270‐m‐thick stratigraphic section shows changes in depositional environments from shallow marine (early Maastrichtian) to non‐marine (late Maastrichtian) then back to estuarine (late Palaeocene) conditions. An erosional surface separates lower Maastrichtian from upper Maastrichtian deposits. Above this surface, the late Maastrichtian unit exhibits moderately developed palaeosols and syn‐sedimentary normal faults. The sedimentary evolution is accompanied by a decrease in sedimentation rate and by changes in provenance. Shallow marine lower Maastrichtian deposits have a cratonic provenance as shown by their low εNd(0) values (?15 to ?16) and the presence of Precambrian inherited zircon grains. The upper Maastrichtian deposits have a mixed Andean and cratonic origin with εNd(0) values of ~12.6 and yield the first Cretaceous and Permo‐Triassic zircon grains. Estuarine to shallow marine upper Palaeocene deposits have an Andean dominant source as attested by higher εNd(0) values (?6 to ?10) and by the presence of Palaeozoic and Late Cretaceous zircon grains. The changes in depositional environments and sedimentation rates, as well as the shift in detrital provenance, are consistent with a late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene period of Andean mountain building. In agreement with recently published studies, our data suggest that an Andean retroarc foreland basin was active by late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene times.     

Skill assessment of three earth system models with common marine biogeochemistry

We have assessed the ability of a common ocean biogeochemical model, PISCES, to match relevant modern data fields across a range of ocean circulation fields from three distinct Earth system models: IPSL-CM4-LOOP, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CNRM-CM5.1. The first of these Earth system models has contributed to the IPCC 4th assessment report, while the latter two are contributing to the ongoing IPCC 5th assessment report. These models differ with respect to their atmospheric component, ocean subgrid-scale physics and resolution. The simulated vertical distribution of biogeochemical tracers suffer from biases in ocean circulation and a poor representation of the sinking fluxes of matter. Nevertheless, differences between upper and deep ocean model skills significantly point to changes in the underlying model representations of ocean circulation. IPSL-CM5A-LR and CNRM-CM5.1 poorly represent deep-ocean circulation compared to IPSL-CM4-LOOP degrading the vertical distribution of biogeochemical tracers. However, their representations of surface wind, wind stress, mixed-layer depth and geostrophic circulations (e.g., Antarctic Circumpolar Current) have been improved compared to IPSL-CM4-LOOP. These improvements result in a better representation of large-scale structure of biogeochemical fields in the upper ocean. In particular, a deepening of 20–40 m of the summer mixed-layer depth allows to capture the 0–0.5 μgChl L^?1 concentrations class of surface chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean. Further improvements in the representation of the ocean mixed-layer and deep-ocean ventilation are needed for the next generations of models development to better simulate marine biogeochemistry. In order to better constrain ocean dynamics, we suggest that biogeochemical or passive tracer modules should be used routinely for both model development and model intercomparisons.     

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.