Automating conceptual models to easily assess trap integrity and oil preservation risks associated with fault reactivation

Extensive Neogene fault reactivation and leakage in the Timor Sea, Australian North-West Shelf, has long been identified as the likely cause for traps in the region being dry or underfilled, despite widespread evidence for hydrocarbon charge and larger palaeo-hydrocarbon columns than those preserved today. A structural model has been previously proposed (Gartrell et al., 2005) to explain the distribution of palaeo- and live hydrocarbon columns. This basic geometrical model is used to define the volume of closure that is protected from fault reactivation, thereby providing the potential for preserving hydrocarbons. Although the model is retrospectively successful in identifying which traps contain hydrocarbons, application to other areas is subjective. To assess the application of the Gartrell et al. (2005) concept a computational model has been generated and applied to a regional 3250 km² seismic interpretation, allowing sensitivity testing of the critical input parameters.The automation has allowed us to demonstrate that the model successfully identifies dry traps and derives reasonable approximations of hydrocarbon-water contacts in commercial accumulations. Therefore, the basic geometrical model is deemed valid to apply to other hydrocarbon provinces, both frontier and mature, that are adversely impacted by fault reactivation after hydrocarbon charge.     

Late slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Inception: New constraints from sedimentary (231Pa/230Th)

Our study gives new constraints on the response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) export to various forcings during the Last Glacial Inception. The decay corrected excess sedimentary (²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th) activity ratio (hereafter referred to as (Pa/Th)) has been measured over that period in two deep cores from the Western (SU90-11, 44°04′N, 40°01′W, 3645 m) and Eastern (MD01-2446, 39°03′N, 12°37′W, 3547 m) basins of the North Atlantic. Both records display significant changes despite the relatively short half-life of ²³¹Pa (～ 32 kyr) compared to the period we investigate. The (Pa/Th) variability does not correlate to changes in local opal flux normalized to ²³⁰Th. Moreover, the (Pa/Th) profiles display a high degree of coherency with indirect proxies of AMOC activity such as the benthic foraminifera δ¹³C and the mid-latitude summer Sea Surface Temperature in nearby reference cores. These additional pieces of evidence support our interpretation of the (Pa/Th) as reflecting AMOC export. The (Pa/Th) repeatedly underwent rapid changes during the Last Glacial Inception associated with the extension of ice rafted detritus in the North Atlantic, highlighting the control of ice-sheet dynamics through freshwater forcing on AMOC export. AMOC export remains large during periods of ice-sheet growth and its decreases lag the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation forcing. AMOC modulation appears driven by ice-sheet dynamics, itself driven by the seasonal insolation gradient between low and high Northern Hemisphere latitudes and the associated intensity of the meridional oceanic and atmospheric circulation.     

Monitoring forest areas from continental to territorial levels using a sample of medium spatial resolution satellite imagery

A global systematic sampling scheme has been developed by the UN FAO and the EC TREES project to estimate rates of deforestation at global or continental levels at intervals of 5 to 10 years. This global scheme can be intensified to produce results at the national level. In this paper, using surrogate observations, we compare the deforestation estimates derived from these two levels of sampling intensities (one, the global, for the Brazilian Amazon the other, national, for French Guiana) to estimates derived from the official inventories. We also report the precisions that are achieved due to sampling errors and, in the case of French Guiana, compare such precision with the official inventory precision.We extract nine sample data sets from the official wall-to-wall deforestation map derived from satellite interpretations produced for the Brazilian Amazon for the year 2002 to 2003. This global sampling scheme estimate gives 2.81 million ha of deforestation (mean from nine simulated replicates) with a standard error of 0.10 million ha. This compares with the full population estimate from the wall-to-wall interpretations of 2.73 million ha deforested, which is within one standard error of our sampling test estimate. The relative difference between the mean estimate from sampling approach and the full population estimate is 3.1%, and the standard error represents 4.0% of the full population estimate.This global sampling is then intensified to a territorial level with a case study over French Guiana to estimate deforestation between the years 1990 and 2006. For the historical reference period, 1990, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data were used. A coverage of SPOT-HRV imagery at 20 m × 20 m resolution acquired at the Cayenne receiving station in French Guiana was used for year 2006.Our estimates from the intensified global sampling scheme over French Guiana are compared with those produced by the national authority to report on deforestation rates under the Kyoto protocol rules for its overseas department. The latter estimates come from a sample of nearly 17,000 plots analyzed from same spatial imagery acquired between year 1990 and year 2006. This sampling scheme is derived from the traditional forest inventory methods carried out by IFN (Inventaire Forestier National). Our intensified global sampling scheme leads to an estimate of 96,650 ha deforested between 1990 and 2006, which is within the 95% confidence interval of the IFN sampling scheme, which gives an estimate of 91,722 ha, representing a relative difference from the IFN of 5.4%.These results demonstrate that the intensification of the global sampling scheme can provide forest area change estimates close to those achieved by official forest inventories (<6%), with precisions of between 4% and 7%, although we only estimate errors from sampling, not from the use of surrogate data.Such methods could be used by developing countries to demonstrate that they are fulfilling requirements for reducing emissions from deforestation in the framework of an REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) mechanism under discussion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Monitoring systems at national levels in tropical countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems.     

Unraveling the roles of asymmetric uplift,normal faulting and groundwater flow to drainage rearrangement in an emerging karstic landscape

Landscape adjustment to tectonic, lithologic and climatic forcing leads to drainage reorganization and migration of divides. The respective contribution of these forcings, especially on carbonate landscapes is not well defined. Here, we have addressed this issue by combining field observations, satellite image interpretation and digital elevation model (DEM) quantitative analysis to assess drainage response to spatially heterogeneous rainfall, asymmetric uplift, and normal faulting on an emerging carbonated platform (Sumba Island, Indonesia). We map geomorphic markers of fluvial dynamics and drainage rearrangement and compute a χ parameter that incorporates the contributions of unevenly distributed precipitation and asymmetric uplift to estimate erosional disequilibrium across drainage divides. We find that asymmetric emergence of Sumba Island created an initial parallel drainage, asymmetric across a divide that propagates landwards. Soon after establishing itself on the emerging slopes this drainage was disturbed by normal faulting, which has become the main force driving drainage rearrangement. Vertical offsets across normal fault scarps first triggered aggradation within valleys over the hanging walls, and then disconnected upstream reaches from downstream reaches, leading to the formation of wind gaps atop the fault scarps and upstream perched sedimentary basins. The defeat of rivers by growing fault scarps was catalysed by the possibility for surface water to be rerouted near the fault scarps into underground water networks inside the underlying carbonates. At the end of the process, the opposite drainage across the main water divide captured the struggling drainage. Capture mechanisms include initial groundwater capture of the perched alluvial aquifers, followed by ground sapping at the head of the opposite drainage and surface stream diversion by avulsion. Finally, normal faulting is the main driving force of drainage rearrangement allowing avulsion and karstic rerouting whereas asymmetric uplift and climate forcings have shown a low efficiency. The role of karstification is more ambiguous, catalysing or inhibiting drainage rearrangement. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A statistical�Cdynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part II: methodology, validation and application to high-resolution ocean models

A novel statistical?Cdynamical scheme has been developed to reconstruct the sea surface atmospheric variables necessary to force an ocean model. Multiple linear regressions are first built over a so-called learning period and over the entire Atlantic basin from the observed relationship between the surface wind conditions, or predictands, and the anomalous large scale atmospheric circulations, or predictors. The latter are estimated in the extratropics by 500?hPa geopotential height weather regimes and in the tropics by low-level wind classes. The transfer function further combined to an analog step is then used to reconstruct all the surface variables fields over 1958?C2002. We show that the proposed hybrid scheme is very skillful in reproducing the mean state, the seasonal cycle and the temporal evolution of all the surface ocean variables at interannual timescale. Deficiencies are found in the level of variance especially in the tropics. It is underestimated for 2-m temperature and humidity as well as for surface radiative fluxes in the interannual frequency band while it is slightly overestimated at higher frequency. Decomposition in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) shows that the spatial and temporal coherence of the forcing fields is however very well captured by the reconstruction method. For dynamical downscaling purposes, reconstructed fields are then interpolated and used to carry out a high-resolution oceanic simulation using the NATL4 (1/4°) model integrated over 1979?C2001. This simulation is compared to a reference experiment where the original observed forcing fields are prescribed instead. Mean states between the two experiments are virtually undistinguishable both in terms of surface fluxes and ocean dynamics estimated by the barotropic and the meridional overturning streamfunctions. The 3-dimensional variance of the simulated ocean is well preserved at interannual timescale both for temperature and salinity except in the tropics where it is underestimated. The main modes of interannual variability assessed through EOF are correctly reproduced for sea surface temperature, barotropic streamfunction and mixed layer depth both in terms of spatial structure and temporal evolution. Collectively, our results provide evidence that the statistical?Cdynamical scheme presented in this two-part study is an efficient and promising tool to infer oceanic changes (in particular those related to the wind-driven circulation) due to modifications in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. As a prerequisite, we have here validated the method for present-day climate; we encourage its use for climate change studies with some adaptations though.     

Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during1961–2005, the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP(CMIP5), are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CMIP6-MME) can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum ...     

Following tracer through the unsaturated zone using a multiple interacting pathways model: Implications from laboratory experiments

Models must effectively represent velocities and celerities if they are to address the old water paradox. Celerity information is recorded indirectly in hydrograph observations, whereas velocity information is more difficult to measure and simulate effectively, requiring additional assumptions and parameters. Velocity information can be obtained from tracer experiments, but we often lack information on the influence of soil properties on tracer mobility. This study features a combined experimental and modelling approach geared towards the evaluation of different structures in the multiple interacting pathways (MIPs) model and validates the representation of velocities with laboratory tracer experiments using an undisturbed soil column. Results indicate that the soil microstructure was modified during the experiment. Soil water velocities were represented using MIPs, testing how the (a) shape of the velocity distribution, (b) transition probability matrices (TPMs), (c) presence of immobile storage, and (d) nonstationary field capacity influence the model's performance. In MIPs, the TPM controls exhanges of water between pathways. In our experiment, MIPs were able to provide a good representation of the pattern of outflow. The results show that the connectedness of the faster pathways is important for controlling the percolation of water and tracer through the soil. The best model performance was obtained with the inclusion of immobile storage, but simulations were poor under the assumption of stationary parameters. The entire experiment was adequately simulated once a time‐variable field capacity parameter was introduced, supporting the need for including the effects of soil microstructure changes observed during the experiment.     

Comparing Beerkan infiltration tests with rainfall simulation experiments for hydraulic characterization of a sandy‐loam soil

Saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, K _s , data collected by ponding infiltrometer methods and usual experimental procedures could be unusable for interpreting field hydrological processes and particularly rainfall infiltration. The K _s values determined by an infiltrometer experiment carried out by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface could however be more appropriate to explain surface runoff generation phenomena during intense rainfall events. In this study, a link between rainfall simulation and ponding infiltrometer experiments was established for a sandy‐loam soil. The height of water pouring for the infiltrometer run was chosen, establishing a similarity between the gravitational potential energy of the applied water, E _p , and the rainfall kinetic energy, E _k . To test the soundness of this procedure, the soil was sampled with the Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters procedure of soil hydraulic characterization and two heights of water pouring (0.03 m, i.e., usual procedure, and 0.34 m, yielding E _p  = E _k ). Then, a comparison between experimental steady‐state infiltration rates, i _sR , measured with rainfall simulation experiments determining runoff production and K _s values for the two water pouring heights was carried out in order to discriminate between theoretically possible (i _sR  ≥ K _s ) and impossible (i _sR  < K _s ) situations. Physically possible K _s values were only obtained by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface, because i _sR was equal to 20.0 mm h^?1 and K _s values were 146.2–163.9 and 15.2–18.7 mm h^?1 for a height of water pouring of 0.03 and 0.34 m, respectively. This result suggested the consistency between Beerkan runs with a high height of water pouring and rainfall simulator experiments. Soil compaction and mechanical aggregate breakdown were the most plausible physical mechanisms determining reduction of K _s with height. This study demonstrated that the height from which water is poured onto the soil surface is a key parameter in infiltrometer experiments and can be adapted to mimic the effect of high intensity rain on soil hydraulic properties.