Zinc-rich and copper-bearing amphiboles from sulfide-free ore occurrences of the Pelagonian Massif,Republic of North Macedonia

Mineralogy and Petrology - This paper describes specific features of isomorphism of unusual amphiboles containing up to 23 wt% ZnO and up to 1.3 wt% CuO from sulfide-free...     

Deglaciation history at the Alpine-Mediterranean transition (Argentera-Mercantour,SW Alps) from 10Be dating of moraines and glacially polished bedrock

Estimating the extent and age of the last glacial maxima as well as the chronology of glacial recessions in various environmental contexts is key to source-to-sink studies and paleoclimate reconstructions. The Argentera-Mercantour massif is located at the transition between the Alps and the Mediterranean Sea, therefore, its deglaciation chronology can be compared to the sediment budget of the Var River basin. Based on 13 new cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) datings performed on moraines and polished crystalline bedrocks and 22 reassessed ¹⁰Be CRE ages from similar altitude nearby steep basement surfaces, and from a lake sediment core, we can constrain the deglaciation chronology of the Argentera-Mercantour massif. These data allow for the first time to fully reconstruct the deglaciation history at the scale of the entire massif in agreement with a major glacier recession at c. 15 ka, at the onset of Bølling transition between the Oldest and Older Dryas. Main deglaciation of the upper slopes [2700–2800 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at 20.8–18.6 ka, followed by the main deglaciation of the lower slopes (2300 m a.s.l.) at 15.3–14.2 ka. Finally, the flat polished surfaces above 2600 m a.s.l. and the zones confined within narrow lateral valleys were likely affected by progressive ice melting of remaining debris covered glaciers and moraine erosion following the Younger Dryas re-advance stage between 12 and 8–9 ka. At lower elevations, the Vens Lake located at 2300 m a.s.l., allows evidence of the onset of lake sedimentation at c. 14 ka and a transition towards a vegetated environment that mainly occurred before 8 ka. Moraine final stabilization at 5 ka might reflect denudation acceleration during the Holocene humid phase. This contribution reveals a glacier–climate relationship more sensitive to warming phases in the southern Alps highlighted by a major decrease of glaciers after c. 15 ka. This major deglaciation is correlated with a 2.5-fold decrease of sediment discharge of rivers into the Mediterranean Sea. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The shape of the seismic response interaction diagram: The effect of combination rules in response spectrum analysis

This paper deals with the construction of seismic response interaction diagrams that show the correlation of multiple responses and are important to determine the critical combination of modal responses. Many design problems, such as column design under combined axial force and bending moments, fall into this category. We address general modal and multicomponent combination rules and study their effect on the shape of the response interaction diagrams, thus extending previous work done for quadratic combination rules. Special attention is given to multilinear combination rules which lead to polyhedral shapes. Having developed efficient methods to deal with polyhedral shapes, we explore the idea of adopting a multilinear modal combination rule to compose with a multicomponent percentage rule.     

Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.     

Optimum size and density of surface grid arrays for retrieving accurate shear-tensile fracturing of microearthquakes

Surface arrays became an important tool for monitoring the induced seismicity in hydraulic fracturing experiments and for assessing the impact of fluid injection on the fracturing process of microearthquakes. The layout of sensors plays a key role in this task because it controls the accuracy of event locations and retrieved seismic moment tensors. We simulate various configurations of grid sensor arrays characterized by a different number of sensors, array span, sensor spacing, depth of sources and various shear/tensile source mechanisms of events. The moment tensor inversion is carried out using synthetically calculated P-wave amplitudes with added random noise. A bias in the solutions is evaluated by errors in the double-couple percentage of inverted moment tensors because the double-couple errors inform us about the sensitivity of the network to detect the shear/tensile fracturing mode of induced microearthquakes. The results show that the accuracy of the double-couple percentage is mostly controlled by the offset-to-depth ratio R defined as the ratio of half of the network size to the event depth. The optimum value of R is in the range of 0.75–1.5 irrespective of the type of the focal mechanism. If 121 (11 × 11) sensors are distributed in a regular grid and recorded data are characterized by a 10% random noise, the double-couple error is less than 6%. This error increases, if R is not optimum or if the number of sensors is reduced. However, even sparse arrays with 49 (7 × 7) or 16 (4 × 4) sensors can yield a reasonable accuracy, provided the surface grid arrays are designed to have an optimum size.     

Numerical homogenization-based seismic assessment of an English-bond masonry prototype: Structural level application

A multiscale strategy is evaluated at a structural level for the analysis of unreinforced masonry structures. The mechanical characterization of the masonry is deduced from homogenization-based micro-scale finite element (FE) models. The derived data are here employed at a structural level via a discrete FE model. The discrete FE model is composed of quadrilateral rigid plates interconnected through vertical and horizontal interfaces. On the interfaces, between adjoining discrete elements, a model that accounts for the in- and out-of-plane behavior of masonry, with damage and plasticity, is adopted. Such interfaces represent the material pre- and post-peak regimes, its orthotropy, and, depending on the micro-model assumed, account by three-dimensional shear effects that are especially important for multi-leaf walls and complex regular textures. The discrete model has been implemented in an advanced structural analysis software where powerful built-in features as the arc-length method, line-search algorithm, and implicit or explicit solver schemes are available. The multi-scale model is applied for the dynamic study of a small English-bond masonry house prototype subjected to a series of consecutive earthquake records. Detailed comparisons between the experimental and numerical data are presented, including the results obtained through a continuous total strain rotating crack model. Quasi-static and dynamic analyses are conducted. Results demonstrate that when enough experimental information is available on the masonry components under tension, shear, and compression regimes, the approach predicts well the seismic structural response in terms of time-history displacements, seismic capacity, and damage patterns. The required computational cost (CPU time) is very attractive.     

Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps)

In the Mont Blanc massif (European Western Alps), rockfalls are one of the main natural hazards for alpinists and infrastructure. Rockfall activity after the Little Ice Age is well documented. An increase in frequency during the last three decades is related to permafrost degradation caused by rising air temperatures. In order to understand whether climate exerts a long-term control on rockfall occurrence, a selection of paleo-rockfall scars was dated in the Glacier du Géant basin [>3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall occurrence was compared to different climatic and glacial proxies. This study presents 55 new samples (including replicates) and 25 previously-published ages from nine sampling sites. In total, 62 dated rockfall events display ages ranging from 0.03 ± 0.02 ka to 88.40 ± 7.60 ka. Holocene ages and their uncertainties were used to perform a Kernel density function into a continuous dataset displaying rockfall probability per 100 years. Results highlight four Holocene periods of enhanced rockfall occurrence: (i) c. 7–5.7 ka, related to the Holocene Warm Periods; (ii) c. 4.5–4 ka, related to the Sub-boreal Warm Period; (iii) c. 2.3–1.6 ka, related to the Roman Warm Period; and (iv) c. 0.9–0.3 ka, related to the Medieval Warm Period and beginning of the Little Ice Age. Laser and photogrammetric three-dimensional (3D) models of the rock walls were produced to reconstruct the detached volumes from the best-preserved rockfall scars (≤0.91 ± 0.12 ka). A structural study was carried out at the scale of the Glacier du Géant basin using aerial photographs, and at the scale of four selected rock walls using the 3D models. Two main vertical and one horizontal fracture sets were identified. They correspond respectively to alpine shear zones and veins opened-up during long-term exhumation of the Mont Blanc massif. Our study confirms that climate primarily controls rockfall occurrence, and that structural settings, coincident at both the massif and the rock wall scales, control the rock-wall shapes as well as the geometry and volume of the rockfall events. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.     

Modeling multiple wave systems in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Ocean Dynamics - While moderate wind and wave conditions prevail in the eastern equatorial Pacific, modeling waves in this area remains challenging due to the presence of multiple wave systems...     

Estimating Runoff Using Hydro-Geodetic Approaches

Given the continuous decline in global runoff data availability over the past decades, alternative approaches for runoff determination are gaining importance. When aiming for global scale runoff at a sufficient temporal resolution and with homogeneous accuracy, the choice to use spaceborne sensors is only a logical step. In this respect, we take water storage changes from Gravity Recovery And Climate Explorer (grace) results and water level measurements from satellite altimetry, and present a comprehensive assessment of five different approaches for river runoff estimation: hydrological balance equation, hydro-meteorological balance equation, satellite altimetry with quantile function-based stage–discharge relationships, a rudimentary instantaneous runoff–precipitation relationship, and a runoff–storage relationship that takes time lag into account. As a common property, these approaches do not rely on hydrological modeling; they are either purely data driven or make additional use of atmospheric reanalyses. Further, these methods, except runoff–precipitation ratio, use geodetic observables as one of their inputs and, therefore, they are termed hydro-geodetic approaches. The runoff prediction skill of these approaches is validated against in situ runoff and compared to hydrological model predictions. Our results show that catchment-specific methods (altimetry and runoff–storage relationship) clearly outperform the global methods (hydrological and hydro-meteorological approaches) in the six study regions we considered. The global methods have the potential to provide runoff over all landmasses, which implies gauged and ungauged basins alike, but are still limited due to inconsistencies in the global hydrological and hydro-meteorological datasets that they use.