Projections of Future Trends in Biogeochemical Conditions in the Northwest Atlantic Using CMIP5 Earth System Models

We use the results from eight of the Earth System Models (ESMs) made available for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze the projected changes in biogeochemical conditions over the next 50 years in the northwest Atlantic. We looked at the projected changes using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario in the 100–400?m depth range over a large region and at more specific locations to assess the relevance of using these outputs to force a regional climate downscaling model of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The projected trends for dissolved oxygen (decrease), pH (decrease), and nitrate (variable although negative in general) represent a continuation of the recently observed trends in the area. For primary production, no firm conclusions can be drawn because of large differences in the trends from one model to another. The consistency of the trends near the regional model lateral boundaries leads us to conclude that the ESM trends can be used to set up future boundary conditions to evaluate regional impacts of climate change although the uncertainty of the results for the Scotian Shelf will be greater than for the Gulf of St. Lawrence.     

How precise are U-series coral ages?

U-series dating of fossil reef corals is a well established and widely applied technique in paleoclimate research. Many fossil corals, however, show evidence for post-depositional diagenetic alteration, and it is generally accepted that the accuracy of U-series coral ages is more limited due to coral diagenesis than analytical precision. In recent years, three models have been published that try to correct the effects of diagenesis and allow the calculation of model ages [Thompson W. G., Spiegelmann M. W., Goldstein S. L., and Speed R. C. (2003) An open-system model for U-series age determinations of fossil corals. Earth and Planetary Science Letters210, 365-381; Villemant B., and Feuillet N. (2003) Dating open systems by the ²³⁸U-²³⁴U-²³⁰Th method: application to Quaternary reef terraces. Earth and Planetary Science Letters210, 105-118; Scholz D., Mangini A., and Felis T. (2004) U-series dating of diagenetically altered fossil reef corals. Earth and Planetary Science Letters218, 163-178].Here, we assess the age variability of both conventional ²³⁰Th/U-dating and the three models by application to different sub-samples of individual coral specimens. The age variability, estimated as the 2σ-standard deviation on the individual ages, is compared with the errors quoted by the different methods. Our results show that the errors of conventional ²³⁰Th/U-dating as well as those of the method of Thompson et al. (2003) do not account for the true age variability. The age variability of both methods is in the range of the errors given by the models of Villemant and Feuillet (2003) and Scholz et al. (2004).Furthermore, we show that the widely used reliability criteria are not sufficient to identify all diagenetically altered corals. In contrast, analysis of different sub-samples of one coral specimen allows (i) to estimate the real age variability, (ii) to test if the assumptions of the models are fulfilled, and (iii) to investigate the diagenetic processes in more detail. Thus, this method should generally be applied to obtain more reliable U-series coral ages and errors.     

The ostracode record from Harris Lake, southwestern Saskatchewan: 9200 years of local environmental change

Holocene paleoenvironments of Harris Lake, southwestern Saskatchewan, are reconstructed from the ostracode stratigraphy of a 10.4 m sediment core. Twenty three taxa, representing nine genera, were identified and counted from 113 samples. At each depth, a theoretical faunal assemblage was derived from the raw counts. The mean and variance of chemical, climatic and physical variables were inferred from modern analogues of the fossil assemblages, using existing autecological data from 6720 sites, mostly in western Canada. These data suggest four paleoenvironments: an early-Holocene (9240–6400 years BP) variable climate supporting aspen parkland vegetation; the warm dry hypsithermal (6400–4500 years BP); a short transitional period of ameliorating climate and expanding subboreal forest (4500–3600 years BP); and the present environment since 3600 years BP. A change in regional climate with the draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz (ca. 8500 years BP) and landsliding in the watershed (ca. 4000 years BP) caused relatively rapid environmental change. The ostracode record generally corroborates the interpretations of other proxy data previously published for Harris Lake. Most of the discrepancy involves the timing and severity of maximum Holocene warmth and aridity. Peak aridity interpreted from the pollen data is earlier than in the other proxy records. Both the diatoms and ostracodes indicate highest paleosalinity between ca. 6500 and 5000 years BP, but maximum salinity in the diatom record occurs between ca. 6000–5700 years BP, whereas the ostracode-inferred salinity is relatively low at this time and peaks later at ca. 5000 years. Neither of these reconstructions suggests the short episodes of hypersalinity interpreted from the mineralogy.     

Marine,seabed, and land seismic equipment for broadband acquisition: a review

The broadband capabilities of marine, seabed, and land seismic equipment are reviewed with respect to both the source and the receiver sides. In marine acquisition, the main issue at both ends of the spectrum relates to ghosts occurring at the sea surface. Broadband deghosting requires towing at variable depth to introduce notch diversity or using new equipment like multi‐component and/or low‐noise streamers. As a result, a doubling of the bandwidth from about three to six octaves (2.5–200 Hz) has been achieved. Such improvement is not yet observed for seabed surveys in spite of deghosting being a standard process on the receiver side. One issue may be related to the coupling of the particle motion sensor, particularly at high frequencies. For land acquisition, progress came from the vibrators. New shakers and control electronics using broadband sweeps made it possible to add two more octaves to the low‐frequency signal (from 8 to 2 Hz). Whereas conventional 10 Hz geophones are still able to record such low frequencies, 5 Hz high gain geophones or digital accelerometers enhance them to keep the signal above the noise floor. On the high end of the bandwidth, progress is not limited by equipment specifications. Here, the issue is related to a low signal‐to‐noise ratio due to the strong absorption that occurs during signal propagation. To succeed in enlarging the bandwidth, these improved equipment and sweeps must be complemented by a denser spatial sampling of the wavefield by point–source and point–receiver acquisition.     

Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas,Morocco)

This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km²) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch     

Three-dimensional inversion of airborne data with applications for detecting elongated subvertical bodies overlapped by an inhomogeneous conductive layer with topography

We propose the approach to 3D inversion of airborne electromagnetic data, which is intended for discovering subvertical bodies overlapped by essentially inhomogeneous conductive layers. The approach is based on the geometric inversion in which a geoelectrical medium is parameterized with the use of block structures. During the inversion, the coordinates of the borders between the blocks and the rows of the blocks as well as resistivities inside them are determined. In order to solve the forward problem of the airborne electromagnetic survey, we use the non-conforming optimized mesh with the hexahedral cells, which enables us to reduce the number of degrees of freedom and smoothly approximate the curved borders of a geological medium. For a more reliable discovery of subvertical objects, we propose to carry out 3D inversions at several rotations of block structures relative to the flight lines. The workability of this approach is demonstrated using the data which are synthesized for complex geoelectrical models with topography, inhomogeneous overlapping layers and target subvertical bodies oriented differently relative to the flight lines. The results of this investigation show that, in some way or other, the elongated subvertical object is discovered and its orientation (the direction of its long side) is defined at different rotations of block structures used in 3D inversions. However, the most accurate recovery of the subvertical object length is achieved when the direction of its long side almost coincides with the direction of one of the block structures axes. Thus, the block structures rotations allow not only more reliably discovering a target object in complex geoelectrical conditions, but also more exactly defining its orientation and length.     

Contrasted turbulence intensities in the Indonesian Throughflow: a challenge for parameterizing energy dissipation rate

Microstructure measurements were performed along two sections through the Halmahera Sea and the Ombai Strait and at a station in the deep Banda Sea. Contrasting dissipation rates (??) and vertical eddy diffusivities (K _z ) were obtained with depth-averaged ranges of \(\sim [9 \times 10^{-10}-10^{-5}]\) W kg^??1 and of \(\sim [1 \times 10^{-5}-2 \times 10^{-3}]\) m² s^??1, respectively. Similarly, turbulence intensity, \(I={\epsilon }/(\nu N^{2})\) with ν the kinematic viscosity and N the buoyancy frequency, was found to vary seven orders of magnitude with values up to \(10^{7}\). These large ranges of variations were correlated with the internal tide energy level, which highlights the contrast between regions close and far from internal tide generations. Finescale parameterizations of ?? induced by the breaking of weakly nonlinear internal waves were only relevant in regions located far from any generation area (“far field”), at the deep Banda Sea station. Closer to generation areas, at the “intermediate field” station of the Halmahera Sea, a modified formulation of MacKinnon and Gregg (2005) was validated for moderately turbulent regimes with 100 < I < 1000. Near generation areas marked by strong turbulent regimes such as “near field” stations within strait and passages, ?? is most adequately inferred from horizontal velocities provided that part of the inertial subrange is resolved, according to Kolmogorov scaling.     

Quantitative integration of 3D and 4D seismic impedance into reservoir simulation model updating in the Norne Field

The ultimate goal of reservoir simulation in reservoir surveillance technology is to estimate long-term production forecasting and to plan development and management of petroleum fields. However, maintaining reliable reservoir models which honour available static and dynamic data, involve inherent risks due to the uncertainties in space and time of the distribution of hydrocarbons inside reservoirs. Recent applications have shown that these uncertainties can be reduced by quantitative integration of seismic data into the reservoir modelling workflows to identify which areas and reservoir attributes of the model should be updated. This work aims using seismic data to reduce ambiguity in calibrating reservoir flow simulation model with an uncertain petro-elastic model, proposing a circular workflow of inverted seismic impedance (3D and 4D) and engineering studies, with emphasis on the interface between static and dynamic models. The main contribution is to develop an updating procedure for adjusting reservoir simulation response before using it in the production forecasting and enhance the interpretive capability of reservoir properties. Accordingly, the workflow evaluates consistency of reservoir simulation model and inverted seismic impedance, assisted by production history data, to close the loop between reservoir engineering and seismic domains. The methodology is evaluated in a complex, faulted, sandstone reservoir, the Norne benchmark field, where a significant reservoir behaviour understanding (about the static and dynamic reservoir properties) is obtained towards the quantitative integration of seismic impedance data. This leads to diagnosis of the reservoir flow simulation reliability and generation of an updated simulation model consistent with observed seismic and well production history data, as well as a calibrated petro-elastic model. Furthermore, as Norne Field is a benchmark case, this study can be considered to enrich the discussions over deterministic or probabilistic history matching studies.     

Does the Phaeocystis bloom affect the diel migration of the suprabenthos community?

The suprabenthos comprises all bottom-dependent animals, mainly crustaceans (including decapods and peracarids), which perform--with varying amplitude, intensity and regularity--seasonal or daily vertical migrations above the sea floor. The presence of organisms in the Benthic Boundary Layer is determined by two general factors: (1) organism behaviour, which depends on the light penetration in the water column and (2) boundary-layer hydrodynamics. In the coastal zone of the eastern English Channel, during the spring Phaeocystis bloom, the presence of gelatinous colonies modifies the penetration of light in the water column, which may seriously affect the abundance and/or the behaviour of the suprabenthos community. To clarify this point, 19 suprabenthic hauls were taken with a modified Macer-GIROQ sledge both during the day and during the night, from March to June 2002 (i.e., before, during and after the bloom). Two sites, located in the coastal and offshore areas of the Ophelia medium sand macrobenthic community were investigated. The bloom had no effect on species richness and abundance in either site. However, the diel migrations of some dominant species--such as the cumaceans Pseudocuma longicornis and Pseudocuma similis, the mysid Gastrosaccus spinifer and the amphipod Stenothoe marina--were modified. During the bloom, diurnal and nocturnal suprabenthic abundances were similar, and in the absence of bloom, species remained benthic during the day. The permanent presence of suprabenthic species in the Benthic Boundary Layer could have a consequence on their predation by fish (mainly juveniles which preferentially consume small crustaceans in their diet), unless fish behaviour and predation efficiency--especially for visual predators--are also disturbed by changes in light intensity.     

New Tabu Algorithm for Positioning Mining Drillholes with Blocks Uncertainty

This paper proposes a new approach to the mining exploration drillholes positioning problem (DPP) that incorporates both geostatistical and optimization techniques. A metaheuristic was developed to solve the DPP taking into account an uncertainty index that quantifies the reliability of the current interpretation of the mineral deposit. The uncertainty index was calculated from multiple deposit realizations obtained by truncated Gaussian simulations conditional to the available drillholes samplings. A linear programming model was defined to select the subset of future drillholes that maximizes coverage of the uncertainty. A Tabu Search algorithm was developed to solve large instances of this set partitioning problem. The proposed Tabu Search algorithm is shown to provide good quality solutions approaching 95% of the optimal solution in a reasonable computing time, allowing close to optimal coverage of uncertainty for a fixed investment in drilling.