东北冷涡南落型强对流天气的潜势预报分析

通过2005-2008年4-6月Micaps资料,查找500 hPa东北有冷涡,500 hPa和700 hPa江苏境内为大片的西北气流,当天午后到夜里出现强对流天气的若干典型个例,借助Micaps系统通过对一些个例的物理量资料分析,得出它们共同的发生强对流天气的机理;同时还分析得出诊断该类对流天气的不太适合使用的物理量和较适合使用的物理量;并分析个例的大气探空层结曲线,得出它们的对流层结与其它类型的区别,并剖析它们的一日转变情况;同时用Q矢量锋生函数方法分析,发现低层强锋生区域与强对流天气区域有较好的对应关系,锋生函数正值中心区域常出现个别站龙卷或大范围冰雹.     

Modelling and mass balance assessments of nutrient retention in a seasonally-flowing estuary (Swan River Estuary,Western Australia)

An integrated mass balance and modelling approach for analysis of estuarine nutrient fluxes is demonstrated in the Swan River Estuary, a microtidal system with strong hydrological dependence on seasonal river inflows. Mass balance components included estimation of gauged and ungauged inputs to the estuary and losses to the ocean (outflow and tidal exchange). Modelling components included estimation of atmospheric (N fixation, denitrification) and sediment–water column nutrient exchanges. Gross and net denitrification derived using two independent methods were significantly correlated (r² = 0.49, p < 0.01) with net rates averaging 40% of gross. Annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from major tributaries were linearly correlated with annual freshwater discharge and were 3-fold higher in wet years than in dry years. Urban drains and groundwater contributed, on average, 26% of N inputs and 19% of P inputs, with higher relative contributions in years of low river discharge. Overall, ungauged inputs accounted for almost 35% of total nitrogen loads. For N, elevated loading in wet years was accompanied by large increases in outflow (7x) and tidal flushing (2x) losses and resulted in overall lower retention efficiency (31%) relative to dry years (70%). For P, tidal flushing losses were similar in wet and dry years, while outflow losses (4-fold higher) were comparable in magnitude to increases in loading. As a result, P retention within the estuary was not substantially affected by inter-annual variation in water and P loading (ca. 50% in all years). Sediment nutrient stores increased in most years (remineralisation efficiency ca. 50%), but sediment nutrient releases were significant and in some circumstances were a net source of nutrients to the water column.     

Otolith chemical signature and growth of Chaetodon speculum in coastal areas of New Caledonia

Coral reefs are one of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth. They are currently exposed to increasing levels of anthropogenic perturbations. Several recent reviews point to the lack of good indicators for these perturbations especially to monitor their effects on fish populations or fish assemblages. The SW lagoon of New Caledonia is an ideal location to test indicator species in this context as contrasting sites are present within a small geographical range. This study analysed fish from four sites, one with heavy industrial pollution, another dominated by domestic waste, a third with historic mining activities, and the fourth as a control. The butterfly fish, Chaetodon speculum, was chosen to determine C. speculum's potential as an indicator species due to its link to coral, its sedentary behaviour and its wide geographical distribution. The size distribution, growth rate, age distribution and whole otolith composition were analysed at each site. Age and mean growth rate were analysed from daily increments of the otoliths. The concentrations of eight elements (Li, Mg, Co, Ni, Cu, Rb, Sr, and Ba) were measured by ICP-MS in the otoliths of a subset of individuals. The sites under anthropogenic impact were distinct from the control site by fish size frequencies, age distributions, and the chemical content of their otoliths. The chemical elements Mg, Co, Ni, Cu, and Rb showed differences amongst sites. Fish belonging to the sites furthest from Nouméa could be discriminated in nearly 80% of samples or 60% of the cases when otolith weight or fish age respectively were taken into account. Ni concentrations of the otoliths were also higher in the bays where water concentrations of this element were known to be higher, but these differences were no longer significant once corrected for otolith weight. These results should be mitigated by the fact that: (1) despite significant differences between sites in age distribution and size frequencies there were no differences in growth rates or body condition; (2) differences in age or size were not correlated to perturbation levels; and (3) discrimination between sites based on chemical levels in the otoliths, even though significant, was not sufficient to identify the origin of the fish at a level useful for screening tests. The hypothesis that environmental differences between sites would be reflected in the otolith chemical composition is therefore not fully supported by our results.     

Changes in climatic characteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land in the 21st century: Assessments with the IAP RAS climate model

Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2–5 K (3–10 K) by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961–1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1–4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S _p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km², and then decreases to 11–12 million km² in 2036–2065 and 4–8 million km² in 2071–2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2 m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54–55 million km² to 38–42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45–49 million km² to 31–37 million km². For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s–2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present-day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES B1, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8–9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM.     

The AquaDEB project (phase I): Analysing the physiological flexibility of aquatic species and connecting physiological diversity to ecological and evolutionary processes by using Dynamic Energy Budgets

The European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011, http://www.ifremer.fr/aquadeb/) is joining skills and expertise of some French and Dutch research institutes and universities to analyse the physiological flexibility of aquatic organisms and to link it to ecological and evolutionary processes within a common theoretical framework for quantitative bioenergetics [Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic energy and mass budgets in biological systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge]. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB are i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability of natural or human origin, and ii) to evaluate the related consequences at different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). At mid-term life, the AquaDEB collaboration has already yielded interesting results by quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species (e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) with a single mathematical framework. It has also allowed to federate scientists with different backgrounds, e.g. mathematics, microbiology, ecology, chemistry, and working in different fields, e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, ecology, agronomy, ecotoxicology, climate change. For the two coming years, the focus of the AquaDEB collaboration will be in priority: (i) to compare energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and to identify the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; and to compare dynamic (DEB) versus static (SEB) energy models to study the physiological performance of aquatic species; (ii) to consider different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) to scale up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes.     

Tortonian-Pleistocenic oceanic features in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea: magnetic inverse model of the Selli-Vavilov region

We show the magnetic model of the Selli-Vavilov region. The Selli Line is known as the northwestern edge of the southern Tyrrhenian Basin. The tectonic evolution of the Tyrrhenian Basin is dominated by a Tortonian-Quaternary extension through the eastward movement of the Apennine subduction system. This migration has generated a diffuse stretching of the continental crust with the emplacement of new oceanic material. This latter occurred in several localized zones where the eastward retreating of the Ionian subduction system produced a strong depletion of the crust with formation of basins and correlated spreading. Nowadays the presence of oceanic crust is confirmed through direct drilling investigation but a complete mapping of the oceanic crustal distribution is still lacking. The Selli-Vavilov region shows a differentiated crustal setting where seamount structures, the oceanic basement portions and continental crust blocks are superimposed. To this aim, a 2D inversion of the magnetic data of this region was conducted to define buried structures. The magnetic susceptibility pattern was computed by solving the least squares problem of the misfit between the predicted and real data for separated wavebands. This method produced two 2D models of the high and low frequency fields of the Selli-Vavilov region. The two apparent susceptibility maps provide different information for distinct ranges of depth. The results of the inversions were also combined with seismic data of the Selli region highlighting the position of the highly magnetized buried bodies. The results confirm a role for the Selli Line as a deep crustal boundary dividing the Sardinian passive domain from the easternmost active region where different oceanic structures are located. The Selli Line has worked as a detachment fault system which has moved eastward. Finally, the Selli-Vavilov region may be interpreted as a tectonic result due to a passive asymmetrical rift occurred between the Tortonian and Pliocene.     

Mesozooplankton biomass and grazing responses to Cyclone Opal, a subtropical mesoscale eddy

As part of E-Flux III cruise studies in March 2005, plankton net collections were made to assess the effects of a cyclonic cold-core eddy (Cyclone Opal) on the biomass and grazing of mesozooplankton. Mesozooplankton biomass in the central region of Cyclone Opal, an area of uplifted nutricline and a subsurface diatom bloom, averaged 0.80±0.24 and 1.51±0.59 g DW m⁻², for day and night tows, respectively. These biomass estimates were about 80% higher than control (OUT) stations, with increases more or less proportionately distributed among size classes from 0.2 to >5 mm. Though elevated relative to surrounding waters south of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawai’i lee), total biomass and size distribution in Cyclone Opal were almost exactly the same as contemporary measurements made at Stn. ALOHA, 100 km north of the islands, by the HOT (Hawaii Ocean Time-series) Program. Mesozooplankton biomass and community composition at the OUT stations were also similar to ALOHA values from 1994 to 1996, preceding a recent decadal increase. These comparisons may therefore provide insight into production characteristics or biomass gradients associated with decadal changes at Stn. ALOHA. Gut fluorescence estimates were higher in Opal than in ambient waters, translating to grazing impacts of 0.11±0.02 d⁻¹ (IN) versus 0.03±0.01 d⁻¹ (OUT). Over the depth-integrated euphotic zone, mesozooplankton accounted for 30% of the combined grazing losses of phytoplankton to micro- and meso-herbivores in Opal, as compared to 13% at control stations. Estimates of active export flux by migrating zooplankton averaged 0.81 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ in Cyclone Opal and 0.37 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ at OUT stations, 53% and 24%, respectively, of the carbon export measured by passive sediment traps. Migrants also exported 0.18 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹ (117% of trap N flux) in Cyclone Opal compared to 0.08 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹ (51% of trap flux) at control stations. Overall, the food-web importance of mesozooplankton increased in Cyclone Opal both in absolute and relative terms. Diel migrants provided evidence for enhanced export flux in the eddy that was missed by sediment trap and ²³⁴Th techniques, and migrant-mediated flux was the major export term in the observed bloom-perturbation response and N mass balance of the eddy.     

Content of Organic Carbon,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus in Deep-Water Coralline Algae Biocenoses,South China Sea

Oceanology - The influence of habitat depth on the content of organic carbon (Corg), as well as organic and mineral forms of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), in the biocenosis of coralline algae at...