Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

Three-parameter model of turbulence for the atmospheric boundary layer over an urbanized surface

A modified three-parameter model of turbulence for a thermally stratified atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is presented. The model is based on tensor-invariant parametrizations for the pressure-strain and pressure-temperature correlations that are more complete than the parametrizations used in the Mellor-Yamada model of level 3.0. The turbulent momentum and heat fluxes are calculated with explicit algebraic models obtained with the aid of symbol algebra from the transport equations for momentum and heat fluxes in the approximation of weakly equilibrium turbulence. The turbulent transport of heat and momentum fluxes is assumed to be negligibly small in this approximation. The three-parameter E ? ε ? 2> model of thermally stratified turbulence is employed to obtain closed-form algebraic expressions for the fluxes. A computational test of a 24-h ABL evolution is implemented for an idealized two-dimensional region. Comparison of the computed results with the available observational data and other numerical models shows that the proposed model is able to reproduce both the most important structural features of the turbulence in an urban canopy layer near the urbanized ABL surface and the effect of urban roughness on a global structure of the fields of wind and temperature over a city. The results of the computational test for the new model indicate that the motion of air in the urban canopy layer is strongly influenced by mechanical factors (buildings) and thermal stratification.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Electronic atlas of the Russian Arctic coastal zone

A set of digital maps including geology, Quaternary sediments, landscapes, engineering-geological, vegetation, geocryological and the series of regional sources have been selected to characterize the Russian Arctic coast. Based on this data, new maps of engineering geocryological zoning and zoning of the coast with respect to the intensity of exogenous geological processes and risk of technogenic impacts have been generated at the scales of 1:4,000,000–1:8,000,000. These maps are a tool to assess the impact of industry on the Arctic coast of the country.     

Target echo enhancement using a single-element time reversal mirror

Iterative Time Reversal (TR) procedures have been demonstrated to be successful in detecting scatterers even in a highly reverberant environment. The success of the method is attributable to a Time Reversal Mirror (TRM) consisting of an array of transceivers that allows one to reconstruct and reverse-propagate wavefronts of interest. This paper deals with the limiting case of a TRM reduced to a single transceiver, tested using a tank experiment with three scattering objects in free-field conditions. It is shown that it is possible to excite a resonance between the TR operator and the strongest mode of the target in the bandwidth of insonification. A simple free-field scattering model is used to study the mechanisms of convergence and to drive the physics-based analysis of data.     

Surface circulation of the Levantine Basin: Comparison of model results with observations

The eastern Mediterranean (Levantine Basin) hydrography and circulation are investigated by comparing the results of a high-resolution primitive equation model with observations. After a 10-year integration, the model is able to reproduce the major water masses and the circulation patterns of the eastern Mediterranean. Comparisons with the POEM hydrographical observations show good agreement. The vertical distribution of the water masses matches that of the observations quite well in terms of monthly mean. The model surface circulation is in agreement with circulation schemes derived from recent observations. Some well-known mesoscale features of the upper thermocline circulation are also realistically reproduced. In agreement with satellite observations, the model shows that high-energy mesoscale eddies dominate the upper thermocline circulation in the southern and the central parts of the Levantine Basin. Most of the Atlantic Water follows the north African coast and forms a strong coastal jet near the Libyan coast rather than forming the Mid-Mediterranean Jet described by several authors. The sub-basin circulation shows a strong seasonal signal. A strong and stable current flows along the isobaths in winter, becoming weaker and with more meanders in summer. The mesoscale eddies throughout the whole basin are more energetic in summer than in winter.     

Variation in microbial biomass and community structure in sediments of peter the great bay (sea of japan/east sea), as estimated from fatty acid biomarkers

Variation in the microbial biomass and community structure found in sediment of heavily polluted bays and the adjacent unpolluted areas were examined using phospholipid fatty acid analysis. Total microbial biomass and microbial community structure were responding to environmental determinants, sediment grain size, depth of sediment, and pollution due to petroleum hydrocarbons. The marker fatty acids of microeukaryotes and prokaryotes - aerobic, anaerobic, and sulfate-reducing bacteria -were detected in sediments of the areas studied. Analysis of the fatty acid profiles revealed wide variations in the community structure in sediments, depending on the extent of pollution, sediment depth, and sediment grain size. The abundance of specific bacterial fatty acids points to the dominance of prokaryotic organisms, whose composition differed among the stations. Fatty acid distributions in sediments suggest the high contribution of aerobic bacteria. Sediments of polluted sites were significantly enriched with anaerobic bacteria in comparison with clean areas. The contribution of this bacterial group increased with the depth of sediments. Anaerobic bacteria were predominantly present in muddy sediments, as evidenced from the fatty acid profiles. Relatively high concentrations of marker fatty acids of sulfate-reducing bacteria were associated with organic pollution in this site. Specific fatty acids of microeukaryotes were more abundant in surface sediments than in deeper sediment layers. Among the microeukaryotes, diatoms were an important component. Significant amounts of bacterial biomass, the predominance of bacterial biomarker fatty acids with abundance of anaerobic and sulfate-reducing bacteria are indicative of a prokaryotic consortium responsive to organic pollution.     

Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.