Review of Lagrangian stochastic models for trajectories in the turbulent atmosphere

We review the theoretical basis for, and the advantages of, random flight models for the trajectories of tracer particles in turbulence. We then survey their application to calculate dispersion in the principal types of atmospheric turbulence (stratified, vertically-inhomogeneous, Gaussian or non-Gaussian turbulence in the surface layer and above), and show that they are especially suitable for some problems (e.g., quantifying ground emissions).     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Mineral magnetic signatures in a long core from Lake Qarun, Middle Egypt

The analysis and interpretation of changes in mineral magnetic signatures from a long (ca. 8.2 m) sedimentary sequence recovered from Lake Qarun, Middle Egypt in 2003 spanning a timescale of approximately the last 2,000 years is reported. A suite of mass specific susceptibility and magnetic remanence measurements were made at irregular intervals downcore on 39 samples. These samples were selected on the basis of trends and abrupt changes in whole-core magnetic susceptibility measured using a Bartington^® MS2E sensor and were analysed for low and high temperature loss on ignition and their particle size distribution. Trends in all mineral magnetic concentration parameters are remarkably similar and were initially used to divide the core into three magnetically distinct zones. The upper and lower sections of the core (0–119 cm and 445–822 cm depth) are characterised by low values for all magnetic concentration parameters. Between 153 and 380 cm depth, concentration parameters are considerably higher, although somewhat variable. The S ratio and percentage loss of remanence after 24 h (IRM_loss) follow a different trend and are inversely related to each other. A low S ratio (<0.7) is associated with a loss of remanence of >4%. On the basis of these parameters, the core can be divided into four zones, and differences in magnetic mineralogy between these four zones were confirmed by measurement of IRM acquisition curves. The major difference between concentration parameters and ratios or percentage loss of IRM lies in the identification of an additional zone below 619 cm depth where the S ratio is high and IRM_loss is low. There is little evidence to suggest that the magnetic signatures are controlled by particle size or by trends in organic matter and/or carbonate content. The signatures appear to be predominantly detrital and show little evidence of post-depositional alteration through dissolution or authigenic addition of bacterial magnetite or greigite. Analysis of Saharan dust deposition rates in Northern Egypt suggests that atmospheric fallout is likely to make only a very minor contribution (<1%) to sedimentation rates in Lake Qarun. The downcore trends therefore appear to reflect major changes in fluvial sediment sources over the ca. 2,000 year time period spanned by this ～8 m core. Preliminary mineral magnetic characterisations of potential local sources suggest that these cannot account for the range of signatures recorded in the Qarun sediments and it is hypothesised that these sediments are derived from Nile river floods.     

Seasonal and inter-annual relationships between vegetation and climate in central New Mexico, USA

Linear correlations between seasonal and inter-annual measures of meteorological variables and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are calculated at six nearby yet distinct vegetation communities in semi-arid New Mexico, USA Monsoon season (June–September) precipitation shows considerable positive correlation with NDVI values from the contemporaneous summer, following spring, and following summer. Non-monsoon precipitation (October–May), temperature, and wind display both positive and negative correlations with NDVI values. These meteorological variables influence NDVI variability at different seasons and time lags. Thus vegetation responds to short-term climate variability in complex ways and serves as a source of memory for the climate system.     

Rotation Of Trajectories In Lagrangian Stochastic Models Of Turbulent Dispersion

We present a new measure for the rotation of Lagrangian trajectories in turbulence that simplifies and generalises that suggested by Wilson and Flesch ( Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 84, 411–426). The new measure is the cross product of the velocity and acceleration and is directly related to the area, rather than the angle, swept out by the velocity vector. It makes it possible to derive a simple but exact kinematic expression for the mean rotation of the velocity vector and to partition this expression into terms that are closed in terms of Eulerian velocity moments up to second order and unclosed terms. The unclosed terms arise from the interaction of the fluctuating part of the velocity and the rate of change of the fluctuating velocity.We examine the mean rotation of a class of Lagrangian stochastic models that are quadratic in velocity for Gaussian inhomogeneous turbulence. For some of these models, including that of Thomson ( J. Fluid Mech. 180, 113–153), the unclosed part of the mean rotation vanishes identically, while for other models it is non-zero. Thus the mean rotation criterion clearly separates the class of models into two sets, but still does not provide a criterion for choosing a single model.We also show that models for which = 0 are independent of whether the model is derived on the assumption that total Lagrangian velocity is Markovian or whether the fluctuating part is Markovian.     

Scales of perception: public awareness of regional and neighborhood climates

Understanding public perceptions of climate is critical for developing an effective strategy to mitigate the effects of human activity on the natural environment and reduce human vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. While recent climate assessments document change among various physical systems (e.g., increased temperature, sea level rise, shrinking glaciers), environmental perceptions are relatively under-researched despite the fact that there is growing skepticism and disconnect between climate science and public opinion. This study utilizes a socio-ecological research framework to investigate how public perceptions compared with environmental conditions in one urban center. Specifically, air temperature during an extreme heat event was examined as one characteristic of environmental conditions by relating simulations from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model with self-reported perceptions of regional and neighborhood temperatures from a social survey of Phoenix, AZ (USA) metropolitan area residents. Results indicate that: 1) human exposure to high temperatures varies substantially throughout metropolitan Phoenix; 2) public perceptions of temperature are more strongly correlated with proximate environmental conditions than with distal conditions; and 3) perceptions of temperature are related to social characteristics and situational variables. The social constructionist paradigm explains public perceptions at the regional scale, while experience governs attitude formation at the neighborhood scale.     

Land-surface segmentation as a method to create strata for spatial sampling and its potential for digital soil mapping

Sampling efforts are constrained by limited availability of resources. Therefore, methods to reduce the number of samples, while still achieving reasonable accuracy are needed. Land-surface segmentation (LSS) has proven a powerful technique to partition digital elevation models (DEMs) and their derivatives into relatively homogeneous areas, which can be further employed as support in soil sampling. Though topography is one of the main soil forming factors, a robust assessment of the potential of this technique to digital soil mapping (DSM) is still missing. In this study, we aimed at evaluating the potential of LSS in stratifying a landscape into relatively homogeneous areas, which can be used as strata for guiding the selection of sampling points in DSM. The experiments were carried out in two study areas where soil samples were available. Land-surface derivatives were derived from DEMs and segmented with a tool based on the multiresolution segmentation algorithm, into objects considered as homogeneous soil-landscape divisions. Thus, one sample was randomly selected within each segment from the existing sample data, based on which predictions of soil classes/sub-orders and properties, i.e. soil texture and A-horizon thickness, were made. Results were compared with predictions based on simple random sampling (SRS) and conditioned Latin hypercube (cLHS). The segmentation-based sampling (SBS) scheme performed better than SRS and cLHS schemes in predicting the A-horizon thickness, soil texture fractions and soil classes, showing a high potential of LSS in stratifying a landscape for the purposes of DSM. The novelty of this study is in the way strata are constructed, rather than in the sampling design itself. Further research is needed to demonstrate the value of a SBS design for practical use. The analyses presented here further highlight the importance of considering locally adaptive techniques in optimization of sampling schemes and predictions of soil properties.     

基于综合指标法的中国生态系统服务保护有效性评价研究

将生态系统服务保护纳入到传统的以保护区为基础的自然保护之中是生态保护研究的新领域。利用综合指标方法,分析了中国从2000-2010年的4种生态系统服务时空变化特征;并对中国的七大生态保护和恢复区域的服务空间保护成效进行评价,提出了国家尺度上的生态系统服务保护优先性分级。主要结论为：① 中国的生态系统服务自西北向东南逐渐增加,显著增加区主要分布在黄土高原地区,显著减少区主要分布在东北及华北地区。黄土高原的生态系统服务提高主要是农田向草地和林地、草地向林地的转换引的;华北地区的降低主要是耕地的减少以及人工用地的增加引起的;东北地区是由于林地向耕地草地、耕地向湿地与人工用地的转换引起的。② 七大生态保护和恢复区的生态系统服务均为增加趋势而且显著增加面积大于减少面积;显著增加面积最大的为三北防护林工程区、最小的为重点生态功能区;显著减少最大为重要生态功能区、最小的为三北防护林工程区。而且,对服务的保护成效在重要生态功能区最高,其次为天然林保护工程区,其余区域均小于全国平均水平。③ 提出的生态系统服务保护优先性等级中,极高级别占到了国土面积的26.18%,保护的生态系统服务量占到全国总量的64.19%,保护成效为全国平均水平的2.47倍。