Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.     

Elemental (C,N, H and P) and stable isotope (δ<Superscript>15</Superscript>N and δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) signatures in sediments from Zeekoevlei,South Africa: a record of human intervention in the lake

We used elemental carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and hydrogen ratios (C/N, N/P and H/C) with total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP) as well as stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) to investigate the source and depositional conditions of organic matter in sediments from Zeekoevlei, the largest freshwater lake in South Africa. Typical C/N (10–12), H/C ratios (≥1.7) and δ¹³C_organic values (−22 to −19‰) together with the increase in TOC concentration indicate elevated primary productivity in lower middle (18–22 cm) and top (0–8 cm) sections of the sediment cores. Seepage of nutrients from a nearby waste water treatment plant, rapid urbanization and heavily fertilized farming in the catchments are responsible for the increased productivity. Consistent with this, measured δ¹⁵N_organic values (∼11‰) indicate increased raw sewage input towards the top-section of the core. Although cyanobacterial blooms are evident from the low δ¹⁵N values (∼3‰) in mid-section of the core, they did not outnumber the phytoplankton population. Low N/P ratio (∼0) and high TP (100–2,200 mg l⁻¹) support cyanobacterial growth under N limited condition, and insignificant input of macrophytes towards the organic matter pool. Dredging in 1983, caused sub-aerial exposure of the suspended and surface sediments, and affected organic matter preservation in the upper mid-section (12–14 cm) of the core.     

A sedimentary record of the rise and fall of the metal industry in Bergslagen,south central Sweden

Detailed stratigraphic analyses of sediments deposited in Lake Botjärnen, a small boreal forest lake in the shield terrain of central Sweden, clearly reflect progressively increasing human impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems following settlement and establishment of an iron industry in the 17th century. Rising frequencies of pollen and spores from light-demanding plants provide evidence of extensive forest clearance for charcoal and timber production, which peaked in the early 20th century. An associated increase in catchment erosion is reflected by changing carbon and nitrogen elemental content and carbon–isotope composition of sediment organic matter and by increased magnetic susceptibility of the sediments. Records of air-borne pollutants (lead, zinc and sulphur) can be correlated to the development of local and regional mining and metal industry as inferred from historical accounts. Rapid recession of the iron industry led to re-forestation and recovery of the aquatic nutrient status to pre-industrial conditions over the past 100 years. The chronology of the sediment succession, which is based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radionuclide data in combination with radiocarbon dating, is confirmed by historical lead pollution trends established for the region.     

Does a one point sample adequately characterize the lake environment for paleoenvironmental calibration studies?

A major goal of paleolimnological studies is the quantification of past environmental conditions. This is accomplished by computing transfer functions relating organism assemblages to environmental factors. The environmental data are typically comprised of a point sample of water chemistry and other environmental parameters that are collected at the same time as a surface sediment sample. We explore whether the year of sampling of the environmental variables affects the parameterization of organism-environment relations, in particular chironomids, ostracodes and diatoms. Canonical correspondence analyses revealed that the year of sampling is of secondary importance when relating the organism assemblages to environmental variables, but only with the major explanatory variables. A chironomid-inferred bottom water temperature partial least squares transfer function revealed similar performance statistics between the years. Taxon optima and tolerances were computed for both years using weighted averaging, and the results are comparable. A paired t-test computed on the proxy-inferred bottom water temperature values indicated that the results between the 2 years are not statistically different. The results of this study provide guarded optimism that the methodology of estimating transfer functions as currently applied is not entirely determined by the particular year when the data were collected, although more case studies are needed.     

Progress in isotope paleohydrology using lake sediment cellulose

Recent advances in sample preparation techniques and mass spectrometry have fostered more routine oxygen isotope analysis of aquatic cellulose in lake sediment cores, a proxy for lake water oxygen isotope history. These methodological developments have significantly increased the feasibility of incorporating this approach into high-resolution, multi-site, and multi-proxy studies, which are frequently necessary to answer complex hydrological, hydroecological and hydroclimatic questions requiring a paleoenvironmental perspective. Direct translation of lake sediment aquatic cellulose oxygen isotope composition into lake water oxygen isotope composition offers appreciable opportunity for quantitative paleohydrological reconstructions, as evidenced by studies conducted over the past 15 years that span Holocene and pre-historical timescales.     

Evaluation of ostracod-based palaeoenvironmental reconstruction with instrumental data from the arid Faiyum Depression,Egypt

The utility of ostracod-based palaeoenvironmental reconstruction was evaluated using instrumental data for Lake Qarun, Egypt. The euryhaline ostracod Cyprideis torosa was the only species found in the lake’s recent sediment record. This species is known to tolerate salinity levels and water solute compositions that may prevent colonisation by other species. Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of ostracod carbonate from lake sediments covary with changes in instrumental values for lake level and salinity for the period 1890–1974. δ¹³C-values correlate negatively with lake water salinity (r ² = 0.87) and δ¹⁸O-values correlate negatively with measured lake level changes (r ² = 0.41). Other ostracod proxy data provide qualitative information on lake level trends. Fossil assemblage data (juvenile/adult and valve/carapace ratios and valve preservation) provide information on wave energy. Ecophenotypic variation of C. torosa valves provided some useful palaeolimnological information. Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios in ostracods were not found to reflect water composition, due to the uncoupling of these ratios with salinity in Lake Qarun. Overall, our results highlight the need to calibrate ostracod proxy data in modern systems prior to their use for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.     

Paleolimnological assessment of human impacts on an urban South African lake

North End Lake is a polluted and eutrophic freshwater system located in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Since the lake is expected to be used for recreational/tourist purposes by 2010, a rehabilitation program will have to be designed. For this reason, we retrieved a sediment core from the central region of the lake to decipher the effect of historical human impacts on the water body. Pre-disturbance paleolimnological inferences indicate that the lake was likely mesotrophic. After ∼1831, when sheep farming activities were undertaken in the catchment, increases in trophic state and changes in sediment composition were observed. After ∼1937, increases in trace metal levels, organic matter, spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP) and changes in sediment composition were recorded. The system became eutrophic as indicated by the dominance of the diatom Actinocyclus normanii, a cosmopolitan species often observed in systems where water quality has been dramatically degraded. The conditions worsened after 1986 because of the construction of a storm-water retention system, which intentionally channeled storm-water runoff into the lake. Because of this, extremely high values of fecal coliforms (i.e. 2 × 10⁶ every 100 ml) have been measured in the water column. The paleolimnological information identified the sharp increase in organic content in the uppermost section of the core, and this could be correlated to the operation of the storm-water retention system. Therefore, as an immediate management measure, we suggest that the storm-water retention system should either no longer be utilized, or the storm-water runoff should be treated before disposal into the lake. In addition, an effective sewage system has to be constructed.     

Glaciolacustrine varved sediment as an alpine hydroclimatic proxy

The physical significance of a negative correlation between a varve record from Mud Lake, British Columbia, and temperature is discussed in the context of a process-network. The process-network is defined as the system of temporally and spatially connected processes involved in the transfer of a signal from climate to varved glaciolacustrine sediment. The six systems defining the network include climate, glacier, fluvial, geomorphic, terrestrial biologic and lacustrine systems to which each process belongs. A literature review outlines significant variation in the strength and character of correlations between components of the process-network and highlights that more comprehensive interpretations of varves as a hydroclimatic proxy require an improved understanding of the process-network. Documenting each process in the network is integral to informing a more complete model of this system, identifying processes that constitute signal transfer and assessing hydroclimatic proxies based on linear correlation. Such documentation is of growing importance as varved lacustrine sediments are increasingly used as a hydroclimatic proxy. The complex nature of the process-network requires greater emphasis on interdisciplinary cooperation and alternative methods to the linear statistical model.     

关于"冰臼"问题与韩同林先生商榷

跨世纪的"冰臼"与"壶穴"之争,尘埃未定,缘于尚无定论."发现冰臼"却常见于报道.本文根据国内研究冰川的成果就韩同林先生<发现冰臼>书中"冰臼"的定义、表现、成因、分布、"冰臼"遗迹的保存机理、"冰说"理论以及模拟"冰臼"的实验设计的合理性等问题提出质疑.从而阐明了:天坑、天井、冰洞、冰湖不是"冰臼";闽、粤无"冰臼";"冰说"理论不成立的观点.