基于人工蜂群CA模型的南京市土地利用变化模拟与预测

以南京市为例,构建人工蜂群元胞自动机（CA_ABC）模型,对2000—2007年的土地利用变化进行模拟以实现CA_ABC模型的校正,并以2007—2015年的土地利用变化为案例,验证该模型的有效性。模拟结果总体精度（OA）2007年为87.79%,2015年为80.61%;模拟结果的品质因数（FOM）2007年为21.23%,2015年为19.25%。基于CA_ABC模型和马尔可夫链预测未来城市土地总量,对南京市2025和2035年的土地利用格局进行了预测,对城市扩张和生态用地被侵占现象进行分析。模型预测结果表明,未来20年的城市扩张主要以牺牲耕地和林地为代价,2025和2035年80%的城市扩张面积来源于对耕地面积的侵占,17%的城市面积扩张是由2015年的林地转换得到的。研究表明,准确模拟、预测未来城市格局及评估城市扩张能够对生态用地侵占,以及为决策者合理规划城市、推动城市可持续发展提供帮助。     

Flowing afterglow studies of temperature dependencies for electron dissociative recombination of HCNH, CH3CNH and CH3CH2CNH and their symmetrical proton-bound dimers

A study has been made using a variable temperature flowing afterglow Langmuir probe technique (VT-FALP) to determine the equilibrium temperature dependencies of the dissociative electron-ion recombination of the protonated cyanide ions (RCNH⁺, where R=H, CH₃ and C₂H₅) and their symmetrical proton-bound dimers (RCNH⁺NCR). The power law temperature dependencies of the recombination coefficients, α_e, over the temperature range 180 to 600 K for the protonated ions are α_e(T)(cm³ s⁻¹)=3.5±0.5×10⁻⁷ (300/T)^1.38 for HCNH⁺, α_e(T)=3.4±0.5×10⁻⁷ (300/T)^1.03 for CH₃CNH⁺, and α_e(T)=4.6±0.7×10⁻⁷ (300/T)^0.81 for CH₃CH₂CNH⁺. The equivalent values for the proton-bound dimers are α_e(T)(cm³ s⁻¹)=2.4±0.4×10⁻⁶(300/T)^0.5 for (HCN)₂H⁺ to α_e(T)=2.8±0.4×10⁻⁶(300/T)^0.5 for (CH₃CN)₂H⁺, and α_e(T)=2.3±0.3×10⁻⁶(300/T)^0.5 for (CH₃CH₂CN)₂H⁺. The relevance of these data to molecular synthesis in the interstellar medium and the Titan ionosphere are discussed.     

Strike-Slip Faults and Their Control on Differential Hydrocarbon Enrichment in Carbonate Karst Reservoirs: A Case Study of Yingshan Formation on Northern Slope of Tazhong Uplift,Tarim Basin

正Objective Oil and gas are abundant in the Ordovician Yingshan Formation carbonate karst reservoirs on the northern slope of Tazhong uplift in the Tarim Basin,and have extremely complicated oil-gas-water distribution,however.The     

Ionosphere Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes according to the Data of Ground Based Station of the Vertical Ionospheric Sounding Wakkanai

The paper analyzes the data of manual ionograms processing of hourly measurements of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2 ionospheric layer at the Wakkanai ionospheric vertical sounding station (Japan) in a geomagnetically quiet environment before a series of earthquakes with magnitude M > 6.0, for which the station entered the earthquake preparation zone, in order to detect possible Ionospheric Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes (IDPE), and to determine their quantitative characteristics. Detected IDPE, in the opinion of the authors, can be related to the processes of preparation of the corresponding earthquakes, i.e., to be Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes (IPE).     

The influence of subsurface moisture on rill system evolution

Rill development studies have focused almost exclusively on surface erosion processes and critical threshold hydraulic conditions. Characteristic rill features, such as arcuate headcuts and knickpoints, are morphologically similar to the ‘theatre-headed’ valleys which have been associated with ‘sapping’ processes at various scales. This paper reports on laboratory experiments designed to identify linkages between surface flow hydraulics, subsurface moisture conditions and rill development. Experiments were carried out in a 16·57 m² flume under simulated rainfall with soil samples up to 0·15 m depth in which moisture conditions were monitored by miniature time-domain reflectometer probes. Tests showed complex responses in which some rill incision reflected surface flow conditions, but major rill system development with markedly enhanced sediment yield was closely associated with high soil moisture contents. It was not possible to measure seepage forces directly, but calculation and observation indicate that these were less important than reduction in soil strength with saturation, which resulted in increased effective runoff erosivity. This caused concentrated undercutting along the water table at rill walls, while slightly stronger surface layers above the water table formed microscarps. These retreated along the water table into interrill surfaces, producing residual pediment transport slopes. The microscarps eventually disappeared when the water table reached the surface, eliminating differential soil strength. The experiments showed complex relationships between surface and subsurface erosional processes in evolving rill systems, strongly influenced by soil moisture dynamics. The very small topographic and hydraulic head amplitudes indicate that seepage forces and ‘sapping’ were minimal. The dominant effect of soil moisture was reduction of soil strength with saturation, and increased runoff entrainment. Experimental conditions were not unusual, either for agricultural fields or natural hillslopes, and the intricate interrelationship of surface and subsurface erosion processes observed is probably not uncommon. Attempts to link specific morphologic features at rill scale to dominance of surface or subsurface processes alone are therefore unlikely to be successful or reliable. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.     

美国亚利桑那州凤凰市地面沉降和地面裂缝的起源

1980年1月,凤凰市出现首例地裂缝.该区水位下降已超过90 m,测得沉降量是1.05 m,间接沉降证据为1.5 m,地下水位埋深达170多m,最大沉降速率为0.13 m/a.地下水位下降始于50年代中期,10年后,当地下水位下降30 m～45 m后,沉降开始发生,沉降漏斗每年扩大5 km2,先是向西,最近向北向东发展,沉降漏斗还将继续扩大,沉降量可能要超过3 m.重力勘探资料显示地裂缝与山前侵蚀平原区埋深45 m的隐伏山体有关,发生裂缝后测到的沉降形态与推测的地下基岩的轮廊相类似,这表明地裂缝与隐伏山体上端地面水平张力的最大值一致,发生裂缝时的年最大应变和累计张应变分别为0.01%和0.06%.这些数据说明了充填裂缝的未来反应以及在重力勘测基础上裂缝可能延伸的长度.该山前侵蚀平原可分为中度起伏的内侧浅部区(深度＜150 m)和NE向缓倾的外侧深部区(150 m～300 m),一条NW-SE向正断层将山前平原至河谷中心的厚层冲积物分开,地下基岩轮廓控制了地面沉降、水位下降和未来地裂缝的空间形态.地裂缝主要出现在下列3种地质环境中(1)埋藏的基岩山体;(2)沉降区的铰合线;(3)埋藏断裂陡崖.     

Assessment of hydrochemistry and groundwater quality in the coastal area of South Chennai,India

An attempt has been made to evaluate the water quality in the fast-growing coastal area of South Chennai. Groundwater samples were collected from selected locations and analyzed for major physico-chemical parameters. Experimental results show that the water has alkaline with pH varying from 7.2 to 8.2. Concentrations of Na and Cl were positively correlated with EC and elevated levels of these parameters near the coastal region, especially in the northern end of the study area, indicating the influence of seawater intrusion. Piper diagram identified Na–Cl as the dominant type of water in most of the samples. The presence of Ca–Cl facies in the groundwater suggests the possible ion exchange (Na with Ca) reaction in the aquifer. Molar ratios of Cl/HCO₃ and Mg/Ca showed a higher value (>1) in many samples, which confirmed the influence of seawater intrusion on water quality. The Water Quality Index (WQI) of the study area ranged between 8 and 116, the highest recorded being at Thiruvanmiyur and the lowest at Muttukkadu. However, total hardness values show that 64% of the samples were hard or very hard in nature. The results of SAR, Na%, and PI show that majority of the samples are suitable for irrigation purposes. A comparison of spatial distribution maps of water quality parameters with those of WQI shows that groundwater quality has highly deteriorated in the Thiruvanmiyur region, located on the northeast part of the study area. Good-quality water is found at the southeast part of the study area, namely, Muttukkadu. This study indicates that urbanization and seawater intrusion have heavily affected the groundwater quality of South Chennai coastal area.     

Isotope systematics of secondary minerals from the Prospect Intrusion,New South Wales

The differentiated Mesozoic alkali dolerite Prospect Intrusion contains a wide range of secondary minerals, including carbonates (primarily calcite), laumontite, prehnite and heulandite, whose stability relationships imply a formation temperature of <200°C. The δ¹⁸O data for carbonates define a higher temperature (160 – 195°C) suite, and a lower temperature (51 – 73°C) suite. The δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope systematics for these carbonates suggest derivation of the higher temperature group from magmatic fluids, whereas the other group had a major meteoric component that probably originated from porewater in the country rock. Source fluids for prehnite were meteoric rather than magmatic in origin based on their δD and δ¹⁸O ratios. Early in the intrusion's emplacement, CO₂-rich hydrothermal fluids formed a carbonate rind sealing the upper part of the hydrothermal system and produced the higher temperature carbonates (calcite) and laumontite. Later, cooler fluids with a meteoric component infiltrated vesicles and fractures, depositing the lower temperature carbonates (calcite, aragonite), heulandite and prehnite.