Enforced self‐organizing map neural networks for river flood forecasting

Self‐organizing maps (SOMs) have been successfully accepted widely in science and engineering problems; not only are their results unbiased, but they can also be visualized. In this study, we propose an enforced SOM (ESOM) coupled with a linear regression output layer for flood forecasting. The ESOM re‐executes a few extra training patterns, e.g. the peak flow, as recycling input data increases the mapping space of peak flow in the topological structure of SOM, and the weighted sum of the extended output layer of the network improves the accuracy of forecasting peak flow. We have investigated an ESOM neural network by using the flood data of the Da‐Chia River, Taiwan, and evaluated its performance based on the results obtained from a commonly used back‐propagation neural network. The results demonstrate that the ESOM neural network has great efficiency for clustering, especially for the peak flow, and super capability of modelling the flood forecast. The topology maps created from the ESOM are interesting and informative. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theory of solar radio pulsation

We show that the observed modulation of some coronal microwave, X-ray and Type III emission into pulses of 10 sec intervals is a consequence of the stimulation of electron cyclotron waves propagated in the whistler mode in dipole-like bipolar regions of dimension 0.2 R . Assuming that a power law spectrum of 10 keV electrons with a slope similar to solar flare protons can be trapped in a bipolar region, we show that whistlers can be generated by pitch angle instability. The resultant 10 sec bounce motion of whistler wave trains leads to enhanced, modulated emission in microwave and X-ray frequencies by pitch angle scattering of MeV electrons, and to modulated Type III emission by scattering with coherent plasma waves. A direct prediction of the theory is the existence of sympathetic pulsations at two sources a fraction of a solar radius apart. A second test of the theory is that modulated Type III emission should show strong polarization.This work was conducted under U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Organization (SAMSO) Contract No. F04701-69-C-0066.     

Basin-scale groundwater response to precipitation variation and anthropogenic pumping in Chih-Ben watershed, Taiwan

The sustainable use of groundwater has become increasingly challenging due to extreme hydrological events and anthropogenic activity. In this study, the basin-scale groundwater response to precipitation variation was analyzed using an integrated model that comprises lumped models for land and river recharges and a distributed model for groundwater. The integrated model was applied to the Chih-Ben watershed, Taiwan, using 20?years (1988?C2007) of data. The hydrological data were analyzed for trends using statistical tests. Based on decreasing trends in precipitation and groundwater levels and an increasing trend in stream flow, the oblique-cut method was applied to precipitation and excess infiltration to assess land and streambed recharge. Distributed numerical groundwater modeling was used to simulate the basin-scale groundwater responses to precipitation variation and anthropogenic pumping. The model was calibrated using stable-isotope and groundwater-level data. The safe yields were estimated for the Chih-Ben watershed for dry, wet, and normal precipitation scenarios. The safe yield of groundwater was shown to vary with precipitation, which does not guarantee the sustainable use of groundwater resources. Instead, water resources should be assessed at a basin scale, taking into account the whole ecosystem, rather than only considering water for human consumption in the alluvium.     

Thermodynamic approach to the equation of state of a magnetized Fermi gas

In this paper we have rederived the equations of state for a magnetized Fermi gas by generalizing the physical definition of the pressure. We have also given a simplified derivation of the energy eigenvalues of a free electron in a magnetic field, based on the use of simple harmonic oscillators. Physical interpretations of our results are presented. Possible astrophysical applications are also discussed.On leave of absence from Dept. of Physics, C.I.E.A., Ap. Post. 14740, Mexico 14, D.F., Mexico.     

A fast method of flood discharge estimation

Discharge, especially during flood periods, is among the most important information necessary for flood control, water resources planning and management. Owing to the high flood velocities, flood discharge usually cannot be measured efficiently by conventional methods, which explains why records of flood discharge are scarce or do not exist for the watersheds in Taiwan. A fast method of flood discharge estimation is presented. The greatest advantage of the proposed method is its application to estimate flood discharge that cannot be measured by conventional methods. It has as its basis the regularity of open‐channel flows, i.e. that nature maintains a constant ratio of mean to maximum velocities at a given channel section by adjusting the velocity distribution and the channel geometry. The maximum velocity at a given section can be determined easily over a single vertical profile, which tends to remain invariant with time and discharge, and can be converted to the mean velocity of the entire cross‐section by multying by the constant ratio. Therefore the mean velocity is a common multiple of maximum velocity and the mean/maximum velocity ratio. The channel cross‐sectional area can be determined from the gauge height, the water depth at the y‐axis or the product of the channel width multiplied by the water depth at the y‐axis. Then the most commonly used method, i.e. the velocity–area method, which determines discharge as the product of the cross‐sectional area multiplied by mean velocity, is applied to estimate the flood discharge. Only a few velocity measurements on the y‐axis are necessary to estimate flood discharge. Moreover the location of the y‐axis will not vary with time and water stage. Once the relationship of mean and maximum velocities is established, the flood estimation can be determined efficiently. This method avoids exposure to hazardous environments and sharply reduces the measurement time and cost. The method can be applied in both high and low flows in rivers. Available laboratory flume and stream‐flow data are used to illustrate accuracy and reliability, and results show that this method can quickly and accurately estimate flood discharges. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Refinement of thrust faulting models for the Central New Madrid seismic zone

We present the results of the joint relocation of events recorded during 1989–1992 by the PANDA network in the central New Madrid seismic zone. The near-surface material in the study area is a gently-dipping layer of poorly consolidated sediments with low P-wave velocity and high V_p/V_s (estimated values: 1.8 km s⁻¹ and 3). The sediments are underlain by high-velocity Paleozoic rocks. Under the network the difference in sediment thickness is only 0.6 km, but because of the low velocities the location of the events using layered models is affected by errors. Application of the joint hypocentral determination (JHD) technique to a subset of 580 events shows that the single-event locations may be in error by as much as 1 km in depth, depending on where the events are located. Analysis of synthetic data generated for a realistic 3-D velocity model supports the JHD results. The analysis of synthetic data also suggests that a V_p/V_s≤ 2.3 is more appropriate for the post-Paleozoic Mississippi embayment sediments. Based on the JHD locations we present a new interpretation of the seismicity, with two en-echelon SW-dipping thrust faults connected by a west-dipping thrust fault. These faults appear associated with the Reelfoot scarp and its northern extension, the Kentucky bend scarp.     

The liberalization of shipping in Taiwan

Maritime transport has become well developed in Taiwan, which is located in the western Pacific Rim. Following the model of traditional maritime nations, Taiwan's government enacted some shipping-friendly measures to help the industry in its early expansion stage. Nevertheless, government authorities have taken actions to liberalize the operations of the maritime-transport sector over the past 10 years. This paper focuses on how the liberalization measures were proposed and implemented including the process and reasons behind the formulation of governmental policies, the interaction between domestic shipping operators and the government. In addition, this paper presents a comprehensive review of the liberalization policy's impact on domestic maritime transport operators.     

An Experimental Study on Wave-Induced Dynandc Stresses in Seabed

A series of hydraulic model tests with horizontal movable seabed under regular wave actions have been carried out to investigate the dynamic interactions between water waves and seabed soil. Seabed dynamic stresses from experiments are, tound to differ from theoretical resuhs. The response of p0 in permeable seabed has a small decay and phase shift to the nonlinear wave actions, and the dynamic stresses, σs/p0, σh/p0 and u/p0, contain different phase shift characteristics. Such phenomena will strongly affect the dynamic stress path in seabed. If the phase shifts of σs. and σh are neglected, the stress path will become a straight line; otherwise, it will become an elliptical curve. In phase shift cases, the long axis of the p - q diagram will be shortened when the depth increases, and the short axis will become longer when the phase shift increases. For the p＇ - q＇ diagram, the larger the phase lag of u, the longer the short axis. Relative results offer useful information for the analysis of seabed stability.     

Application of polarization analysis in correcting the orientation error of a downhole seismometer

This paper shows that the polarization analysis of later arrivals could be used to estimate the orientation error and the tilt of the downhole accelerometers in the Dahan downhole strong-motion array. This four-level array is located to the north of Hualien city in eastern Taiwan. Polarization analysis of a windowed signal which includes significant phases (e.g. primary S wave) can give a stable major polarization axis. This axis can then be used as the reference direction for correcting the orientation error and the tilt of the downhole seismometers. If the surface instrument is chosen as the reference, the angle between the major polarization axes of the surface and any downhole recordings will be the orientation error needed to be corrected for the downhole accelerograph. This angle is a combination of the tilt and the orientation errors which correspond to the dip and strike of maximum polarization, respectively. At the Dahan downhole strong-motion array, the orientation errors of the seismometers at the depth of 50, 100 and 200 m were 1°, 90° and 84°. These orientation errors were consistent with the horizontal particle-motion analysis. The errors of horizontal plane (tilt) were almost zero. After correction, the coherency of the waveforms between the surface and the downhole recordings was significantly improved.     

Canyon topography effects on ground motion at Feitsui damsite

The free-field accelerograms along Feitsui Canyon are analyzed and modeled by a numerical scheme to study the effect of canyon topography. Since six strong-motion accelerometers (SC1–SC6) were deployed along the Feitsui Canyon in 1991; there are 14 earthquakes (4.9≤M_L≤6.6) recorded by these stations until June 1996, but only five triggered all six stations. The maximum PGA value is 68.6 cm s⁻² recorded at station SC1. According to the present data, the effect of the dam on the ground motions at canyon stations can be negligible. The amplitude of ground motion on the slopes of the canyon is bigger than that at its trough. The integral equation method is applied to a two dimensional model of Feitsui Canyon to study the effects of the canyon topography. We choose the ground motion of SC3 or SC4 station at the trough of the canyon as the input motion for the model, which is then used to predict the ground motion at the other five stations. Apart from the earthquake close to the damsite, the simple model can reproduce the observed accelerations at all frequencies below 4 Hz. Overall, the numerical method can well predict the ground motion along the canyon, although the high-frequency simulation is underestimated.