On the informative value of the largest sample element of log-Gumbel distribution

Extremes of stream flow and precipitation are commonly modeled by heavytailed distributions. While scrutinizing annual flow maxima or the peaks over threshold, the largest sample elements are quite often suspected to be low quality data, outliers or values corresponding to much longer return periods than the observation period. Since the interest is primarily in the estimation of the right tail (in the case of floods or heavy rainfalls), sensitivity of upper quantiles to largest elements of a series constitutes a problem of special concern. This study investigated the sensitivity problem using the log-Gumbel distribution by generating samples of different sizes (n) and different values of the coefficient of variation by Monte Carlo experiments. Parameters of the log-Gumbel distribution were estimated by the probability weighted moments (PWMs) method, method of moments (MOMs) and maximum likelihood method (MLM), both for complete samples and the samples deprived of their largest elements. In the latter case, the distribution censored by the non-exceedance probability threshold, F _T , was considered. Using F _T instead of the censored threshold T creates possibility of controlling estimator property. The effect of the F _T value on the performance of the quantile estimates was then examined. It is shown that right censoring of data need not reduce an accuracy of large quantile estimates if the method of PWMs or MOMs is employed. Moreover allowing bias of estimates one can get the gain in variance and in mean square error of large quantiles even if ML method is used.     

A new magnetic index based on the external part of vertical geomagnetic variations

Variations of geomagnetic components X, Y, and Z recorded in 19 Intermagnet European observatories in 2004 were analysed. The original data from all observatories were preliminarily processed. In the first step, periods longer than three hours were filtered out. In the second step, variations of vertical geomagnetic component Z were separated into external and internal parts. We introduced a non-dimensional index η defined as the square root of a ratio of the energy of the external part of the vertical component to that of the horizontal components. Maps of the surface distribution of a new magnetic index η for the area of Europe at selected time periods were created, and their time changes are presented. The time changes of η for selected observatories are also shown. Moreover, we discuss a very interesting phenomenon we discovered, that has never been described in geophysical literature. Namely, in the recordings of all the observatories we noticed the presence of very regular variations, observed almost exclusively in the vertical component Z, which is quite unusual. These regular variations occur in the form of sinusoidal “wave packets”. The amplitudes of these variations do not depend on the geomagnetic latitude and appear in the records of all the observatories we analyzed. They occur in quiet days, which suggests that their source is in the ionosphere.     

Differential calibration of seismometers for measurement of rotation and strain

A method of correcting the seismometers’ responses discrepancy for differential measurements of strains and rotations in the seismic far field is proposed. The method concerns differential calibration of the whole seismometers’ array by electric current. A model of corrective filtering of the obtained differential signals in the Z domain is given. Two methods of the filter parameters’ estimation are introduced; they are based on the seismometers response to the calibration. A practical test of the methods — an analysis of a recorded seismic event — is added. Significant reduction of differences between simultaneous seismic recordings was obtained, which is interpreted as cleaning of differential signal from spurious elements.     

Influence of Mean Rooftop-Level Estimation Method on Sensible Heat Flux Retrieved from a Large-Aperture Scintillometer Over a City Centre

The sensible heat flux (H) is determined using large-aperture scintillometer (LAS) measurements over a city centre for eight different computation scenarios. The scenarios are based on different approaches of the mean rooftop-level \((z_{H})\) estimation for the LAS path. Here, \(z_{H}\) is determined separately for wind directions perpendicular (two zones) and parallel (one zone) to the optical beam to reflect the variation in topography and building height on both sides of the LAS path. Two methods of \(z_{H}\) estimation are analyzed: (1) average building profiles; (2) weighted-average building height within a 250 m radius from points located every 50 m along the optical beam, or the centre of a certain zone (in the case of a wind direction perpendicular to the path). The sensible heat flux is computed separately using the friction velocity determined with the eddy-covariance method and the iterative procedure. The sensitivity of the sensible heat flux and the extent of the scintillometer source area to different computation scenarios are analyzed. Differences reaching up to 7% between heat fluxes computed with different scenarios were found. The mean rooftop-level estimation method has a smaller influence on the sensible heat flux (?4 to 5%) than the area used for the \(z_{H}\) computation (?5 to 7%). For the source-area extent, the discrepancies between respective scenarios reached a similar magnitude. The results demonstrate the value of the approach in which \(z_{H}\) is estimated separately for wind directions parallel and perpendicular to the LAS optical beam.     

Do mowing regimes affect plant and soil biological activity in the mountain meadows of Southern Poland?

The soil biological activity of mountain meadows is a significant factor that determines the health and utility of these regions. The climax stage of this area is forest, but to maintain semi-natural grassland, which is characterised by high biodiversity,low-intensity land use(mowing or grazing) is necessarily required. To understand the effect of various mowing regimes on the soil biological activity and plants, the soil microbial activity(microbial biomass carbon, dehydrogenase activity and number of the cultivable fraction of soil microbial community),annelids community(density and species composition earthworms and enchytraeids) and plant species composition were investigated. The study area was located in the Pieniny National Park in the Carpathian Mountains, in a meadow belonging to the association Dactylis glomerata-Poa trivialis. The investigated variants were divided according to mowing regime:traditional scything – hand mowing(HM), mechanical mowing(MM), or the abandonment of mowing – nonmowing(NM). The microbial activities(expressed by,e.g. microbial biomass carbon and the number of phosphorus bacteria) were affected by the mowing regime. The density of earthworms was higher in the HM and MM than in the NM variants. The largest changes in plant species composition were caused by the abandonment of mowing(NM). The mean number of plant species was positively correlated with soil moisture, earthworm density, and microbial activity(expressed indirectly by dehydrogenases activity). The soil microbial community, such as vegetative bacteria forms and ammonifying bacteria,were positively associated with pH value, and the microbial and total organic carbon content. The results presented here indicate that there is no single form of optimal management for all living organisms.Decisions about mowing regimes, or abandonment of use, should be preceded by multi-aspect studies,including plants and soil biota.     

Measurement of aerosol optical thickness over the Atlantic Ocean and in West Antarctica, 2006–2007

In this paper, optical measurements of aerosol properties made during a ship cruise from Poland to Antarctic Station in September and October 2006, and during the cruise back to Gdynia in April and May 2007 are described. A large gradient of pollution between the clear South Atlantic and the dusty North Atlantic was observed. The maximum of aerosol optical thickness at a wavelength of 500 nm reached 0.4 at 20°N in September 2006 and 0.3 at 40°N in May 2007, respectively. Strong Saharan dust transport is suggested as an explanation for the small values of Ångström exponent observed (values of 0.2 and 0.4 on these respective dates). On the Southern Hemisphere the aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm ranged from 0.05 to 0.2. Significant increases of the aerosol optical thickness were associated with strong wind and sea salt production. Good agreement was found when the in situ measurements of aerosol optical thickness were compared to satellite retrievals and modelling results.     

Coupling between landslides and eroding stream channels reconstructed from spruce tree rings (examples from the Carpathians and Sudetes – Central Europe)

The analysis of the positive feedback between landslides and erosion requires determination of the precise temporal and spatial relations between events of colluvium delivery and fluvial erosion. In our study we use decennial datasets on the occurrence of landsliding and erosion achieved through dendrochronological methods. Four sites covering areas of landslide slopes and adjacent valley floors with stream channels were studied. Landsliding on slopes was dated from the tree‐ring eccentricity developed in stems tilted due to bedrock instability. Erosion in channels was dated using the wood anatomy of roots exposed by erosion of the soil cover. Analysis of the temporal relations between dated landsliding, erosion and precipitation record has revealed that two types of repeating sequences can be observed: (1) rainfall → landsliding → erosion; (2) rainfall → erosion → landsliding. These sequences are an indication of the occurrence of slope‐channel positive feedback in the sites studied. In the first type, landsliding triggered by rainfall delivers colluvia into the valley floor and causes its narrowing, which in turn causes increased erosion. In the second type erosion triggered by rainfall disturbs the slope equilibrium and causes landsliding. Landsliding and erosion, once triggered by precipitation, can occur alternately in years with average precipitation and reinforce one another. Bidirectional coupling between landsliding and channel erosion was shown notably through the effects of channel shifting and forced sinuosity and by increased erosion of the slopes opposite the active landslides. Observations also suggest that the repetition of sequences described over longer periods of time can lead to a general widening of the valley floor at the expense of slopes and to a gradual change of the valley cross‐profile from narrow, V‐shaped into a wide flat‐bottomed. Thus landsliding–erosion coupling/positive feedback was recognized as an important factor shaping hillslope–valley topography of the mid‐mountain areas studied. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.