Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes.     

Clearance rates of ephyrae and small medusae of the common jellyfish Aurelia aurita offered different types of prey

Prey selection and knowledge of the amounts of water processed by the early stages of the common jellyfish Aurelia aurita may at certain times of the year be crucial for understanding the plankton dynamics in marine ecosystems with mass occurrences of this jellyfish. In the present study we used two different methods (“clearance method” and “ingestion-rate method”) to estimate the amount of water cleared per unit of time of different types and sizes of prey organisms offered to A. aurita ephyrae and small medusae. The mean clearance rates of medusae, estimated with Artemia sp. nauplii as prey by both methods, agreed well, namely 3.8 ± 1.4 l h^? 1 by the clearance method and 3.2 ± 1.1 l h^? 1 by the ingestion-rate method. Both methods showed that copepods (nauplii and adults) and mussel veligers are captured with considerably lower efficiency, 22 to 37% and 14 to 30%, respectively, than Artemia salina nauplii. By contrast, the water processing rates of ephyrae measured by the clearance method with A. salina nauplii as prey were 3 to 5 times lower than those measured by the ingestion-rate method. This indicates that the prerequisite of full mixing for using the clearance method may not have been fulfilled in the ephyrae experiments. The study demonstrates that the predation impact of the young stages of A. aurita is strongly dependent on its developmental stage (ephyra versus medusa), and the types and sizes of prey organisms. The estimated prey-digestion time of 1.3 h in a steady-state feeding experiment with constant prey concentration supports the reliability of the ingestion-rate method, which eliminates the negative “container effects” of the clearance method, and it seems to be useful in future jellyfish studies, especially on small species/younger stages in which both type and number of prey can be easily and precisely assessed.     

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.     

Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation,multi-step prediction,and evaluation of overflow risk

Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date, research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore analyzes the quality of multistep ahead forecasts of runoff volume and considers new estimation methods based on scoring rules for k-step-ahead predictions. The study shows that the score-based methods are, in principle, suitable for the estimation of model parameters and can therefore help the identification of models for cases with noisy in-sewer observations. For the prediction of the overflow risk, no improvement was demonstrated through the application of stochastic forecasts instead of point predictions, although this result is thought to be caused by the notably simplified setup used in this analysis. In conclusion, further research must focus on the development of model structures that allow the proper separation of dry and wet weather uncertainties and simulate runoff uncertainties depending on the rainfall input.     

Numerical nucleosynthesis results for Bianchi type-V cosmological models

Results of numerical calculations of helium-4 and deuterium abundances in a wide range of Bianchi type-V locally rotationally-symmetric cosmological models are presented. The tabulated element abundances show that these models generically yield helium fractions which are unacceptably large compared with the available observational data.     

Adsorption of polar aromatic hydrocarbons on synthetic calcite

The wettability of hydrocarbon reservoirs depends on how and to what extent the organic compounds are adsorbed onto the surfaces of calcite, quartz and clay. A model system of synthetic calcite, cyclohexane and the three probe molecules: benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol and benzylamine, have been studied by adsorption experiments. The results clearly demonstrate the differences in the adsorption behaviour between probes with different functional groups of varying polarity and acidity. The maximum adsorption decreases in the order: benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol and benzylamine. The order of magnitude of ΔG° for the adsorption process implies the formation of a strong bond between the calcite surface and the adsorbate molecules.     

Late quaternary glacial and vegetation changes,Little Cottonwood Canyon area,Wasatch mountains,Utah

Glacial geology and ¹⁴C dating in the central Wasatch Mountains indicate: an early canyon-mouth glaciation (Dry Creek till), probably during isotope stage 6; on that till, a paleosol (Majestic Canyon soil) dated at about 26,000 yr B.P.; overriding that soil, a later canyon-mouth glaciation (Bells Canyon till) probably beginning prior to about 19,000 yr B.P.; a midcanyon deglacial pause (Hogum Fork till) prior to 12,300 yr B.P.; an upper-canyon deglacial pause (Devils Castle till) prior to 7500 yr B.P.; and late Holocene periglaciation. Pollen ratios from bog profiles in the mid to upper reaches of the canyon suggest that temperatures cooler than the Holocene average occurred until after about 8000 yr B.P. Warmer and dryer than average conditions were initiated about 8000 to 7500 yr B.P. During the later portion of this Altithermal period conditions became relatively warm and wet. Two subsequent episodes of cooler than average temperatures correspond chronologically to the initial stades of Neoglaciation elsewhere in the Rocky Mountains. However, there is no geomorphic evidence of corresponding glacial activity in the canyon area. Relative moisture during these two periods differs significantly, suggesting that Neoglacial conditions were controlled primarily by changes in summer temperature.     

A Late Pleistocene Tephra Layer in the Southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau Derived from Mono Craters, California

A newly identified tephra in stratified deposits in southwestern Utah, dated 14,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., may aid in correlating late Pleistocene deposits across parts of the southern Great Basin and west-central Colorado Plateau. Geochemical analyses of the ash suggest the tephra originated from Mono Craters, California, and most probably correlates with Wilson Creek ash #3. Because the ash is 2 mm thick 550 km from its source, the event may have been larger than others correlated to Mono Craters eruptions.     

Application of the Bayesian approach in regional analysis of extreme rainfalls

Based on the Partial Duration Series model a regional Bayesian approach is introduced in the modelling of extreme rainfalls from a country-wide system of recording raingauges in Denmark. The application of the Bayesian principles is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto-distributed exceedances. The method is applied to, respectively, the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10 minutes rain intensity of individual storms from 41 stations. By means of the regional analysis prior distributions of the parameters in the Partial Duration Series model are estimated. It is shown that the regional approach significantly reduces the uncertainty of the T-year event estimator compared to estimation based solely on at-site data. In addition, the regional approach provides quantile estimates at non-monitored sites.