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921.
Explanatory analysis of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood‐generating events in a coastal city 下载免费PDF全文
Helena L. A. Åström Maria Sunyer Henrik Madsen Dan Rosbjerg K. Arnbjerg‐Nielsen 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2773-2788
The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the occurrence of flood‐generating events in urban areas by analysing the relationship between large‐scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events, extreme sea water level events and their simultaneous occurrence, respectively. To describe the atmospheric circulation, we used the Lamb circulation type (LCT) classification and re‐grouped it into Lamb circulation classes (LCC). The daily LCCs/LCTs were connected with rare precipitation and water‐level events in Aarhus, a Danish coastal city. Westerly and cyclonic LCCs (W, C, SW and NW) showed a significantly high occurrence of extreme precipitation. Similarly, for extreme water‐level events westerly LCCs (W and SW) showed a significantly high occurrence. Significantly low occurrence of extreme precipitation and water‐level events was obtained in easterly LCCs (NE, E and SE). For concurrent events, significantly high occurrence was obtained in LCC W. We assessed the change in LCC occurrence frequency in the future based on two regional climate models (RCMs). The projections indicate that the westerly directions in LCCs are expected to increase in the future. Consequently, simultaneous occurrence of extreme water level and precipitation events is expected to increase in the future as a result of change in LCC frequencies. The RCM projections for LCC frequencies are uncertain because the representation of current LCCs is poor; a large number of days cannot be classified and the frequencies of the days that can be classified differ from the observed time series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
922.
Martina Flörke Ellen Kynast Ilona Bärlund Stephanie Eisner Florian Wimmer Joseph Alcamo 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):144-156
To enhance global water use assessment, the WaterGAP3 model was improved for back-calculating domestic, manufacturing and thermoelectric water uses until 1950 for 177 countries. Model simulations were carried-out on a national scale to estimate water withdrawals and consumption as well as cooling water required for industrial processes and electricity production. Additionally, the amount of treated and untreated wastewater as generated by the domestic and manufacturing sectors was modeled. In the view of data availability, model simulations are based on key socio-economic driving forces and thermal electricity production. Technological change rates were derived from statistical records in order to consider developments in water use efficiency, which turned out to have a crucial role in water use dynamics. Simulated domestic and industrial water uses increased from ca. 300 km3 in 1950 to 1345 km3 in 2010, 12% of which were consumed and 88% of which were discharged back into freshwater bodies. The amount of domestic and manufacturing wastewater increased considerably over the last decade, but only half of it was untreated. The downscaling of the untreated wastewater volume to river basin scale indicates a matter of concern in East and Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, and Eastern and Southern Europe. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goals, securing water supply and the reduction of untreated wastewater discharges should be amongst the priority actions to be undertaken. Population growth and increased prosperity have led to increasing water demands. However, societal and political transformation processes as well as policy regulations resulting in new water-saving technologies and improvements counteract this development by slowing down and even reducing global domestic and industrial water uses. 相似文献
923.
924.
Potential of time‐lapse photography for identifying saturation area dynamics on agricultural hillslopes 下载免费PDF全文
Rasmiaditya Silasari Juraj Parajka Camillo Ressl Peter Strauss Günter Blöschl 《水文研究》2017,31(21):3610-3627
Mapping saturation areas during rainfall events is important for understanding the dynamics of overland flow. In this study, we evaluate the potential of high temporal resolution time‐lapse photography for mapping the dynamics of saturation areas (i.e., areas where water is visually ponding on the surface) on the hillslope scale during natural rainfall. We take 1 image per minute over a 100 × 15 m2 depression area on an agricultural field in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory, Austria. The images are georectified and classified by an automated procedure, using grey intensity as a threshold to identify saturation area. The optimum threshold T is obtained by comparing saturation areas from the automated analysis with the manual analysis of 149 images. T is found to be highly correlated with an image brightness characteristic defined as the greyscale image histogram mode M (Pearson correlation r = 0.91). We estimate T as T = M + C where C is a calibration parameter assumed to be constant during each event. The automated procedure estimates the total saturation area close to the manual analysis with mean normalized root mean square error of 9% and 21% if C is calibrated for each event and taken constant for all events, respectively. The spatial patterns of saturation are estimated with a geometric mean accuracy index of 94% as compared to the manual analysis of the same photos. The patterns are tested against field observations for one date as a preliminary demonstration, which yields a root mean square error of the shortest distance between the measured boundary points and the automatically classified boundary as 23 cm. The usefulness of the patterns is illustrated by exploring run‐off generation processes of an example event. Overall, the proposed classification method based on grey intensity is found to process images with highly varying brightnesses well. It is more efficient than the manual tracing for a large number of images, which allows the exploration of surface flow processes at high temporal resolution. 相似文献
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926.
927.
Daniel A. Hepp Dierk Hebbeln Stefan Kreiter Hanno Keil Christian Bathmann Jürgen Ehlers Tobias Mörz 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(8):844-853
A combination of a dense reflection seismic grid and up to 50‐m‐long records from sediment cores and cone penetration tests was used to study the geometry and infill lithology of an E–W‐trending buried tunnel valley in the south‐eastern North Sea. In relation to previously known primarily N–S‐trending tunnel valleys in this area, the geometry and infill of this 38‐km‐long and up to 3‐km‐wide valley is comparable, but its E–W orientation is exceptional. The vertical cross‐section geometry may result from subglacial sediment erosion of advancing ice streams and secondary incision by large episodic meltwater discharges with high flow rates. The infill is composed of meltwater sands and reworked till remnants on the valley flanks that are overlain by late Elsterian rhythmic, laminated, lacustrine fine‐grained sediments towards the centre of the valley. A depression in the valley centre is filled with sediments most likely from the Holsteinian transgression and a subsequent post‐Holsteinian lacustrine quiet‐water setting. The exceptional axis orientation of this tunnel valley points to a regional N–S‐oriented ice front during the late Elsterian. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
928.
Daniel Schimpf Rolf Kilian Andreas Kronz Klaus Simon Christoph Spötl Gerhard Wörner Michael Deininger Augusto Mangini 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(3-4):443-459
Stalagmites are important palaeo-climatic archives since their chemical and isotopic signatures have the potential to record high-resolution changes in temperature and precipitation over thousands of years. We present three U/Th-dated records of stalagmites (MA1–MA3) in the superhumid southern Andes, Chile (53°S). They grew simultaneously during the last five thousand years (ka BP) in a cave that developed in schist and granodiorite. Major and trace elements as well as the C and O isotope compositions of the stalagmites were analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution as proxies for palaeo-temperature and palaeo-precipitation. Calibrations are based on data from five years of monitoring the climate and hydrology inside and outside the cave and on data from 100 years of regional weather station records.Water-insoluble elements such as Y and HREE in the stalagmites indicate the amount of incorporated siliciclastic detritus. Monitoring shows that the quantity of detritus is controlled by the drip water rate once a threshold level has been exceeded. In general, drip rate variations of the stalagmites depend on the amount of rainfall. However, different drip-water pathways above each drip location gave rise to individual drip rate levels. Only one of the three stalagmites (MA1) had sufficiently high drip rates to record detrital proxies over its complete length. Carbonate-compatible element contents (e.g. U, Sr, Mg), which were measured up to sub-annual resolution, document changes in meteoric precipitation and related drip-water dilution. In addition, these soluble elements are controlled by leaching during weathering of the host rock and soils depending on the pH of acidic pore waters in the peaty soils of the cave’s catchment area. In general, higher rainfall resulted in a lower concentration of these elements and vice versa. The Mg/Ca record of stalagmite MA1 was calibrated against meteoric precipitation records for the last 100 years from two regional weather stations. Carbonate-compatible soluble elements show similar patterns in the three stalagmites with generally high values when drip rates and detrital tracers were low and vice versa. δ13C and δ18O values are highly correlated in each stalagmite suggesting a predominantly drip rate dependent kinetic control by evaporation and/or outgassing. Only C and O isotopes from stalagmite MA1 that received the highest drip rates show a good correlation between detrital proxy elements and carbonate-compatible elements. A temperature-related change in rainwater isotope values modified the MA1 record during the Little Ice Age (~0.7–0.1 ka BP) that was ~1.5 °C colder than today. The isotopic composition of the stalagmites MA2 and MA3 that formed at lower drip rates shows a poor correlation with stalagmite MA1 and all other chemical proxies of MA1. ‘Hendy tests’ indicate that the degassing-controlled isotope fractionation of MA2 and MA3 had already started at the cave roof, especially when drip rates were low. Changing pathways and residence times of the seepage water caused a non-climatically controlled isotope fractionation, which may be generally important in ventilated caves during phases of low drip rates. Our proxies indicate that the Neoglacial cold phases from ~3.5 to 2.5 and from ~0.7 to 0.1 ka BP were characterised by 30% lower precipitation compared with the Medieval Warm Period from 1.2 to 0.8 ka BP, which was extremely humid in this region. 相似文献
929.
930.
G. F. Chörny 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,97(4):229-248
A restricted three-body problem for a dust particle, in presence of a spherical cometary nucleus in an eccentric (elliptic,
parabolic or hyperbolic) orbit about the Sun, is considered. The force of radiation pressure and the Poynting– Robertson effect
are taken into account. The differential equations of the particle’s non-inertial spatial motion are investigated both analytically
and numerically. With the help of a complex representation, a new single equation of the motion is obtained. Conversion of
the equations of motion system into a single equation allows the derivation of simple expressions similar to the integral
of energy and integrals of areas. The derived expressions are named quasiintegrals. Relative values of terms of the energy
quasiintegral for a smallest, largest, and a mean comet are calculated. We have found that in a number of cases the quasiintegrals
are related to the regular integrals of motion, and discuss how the quasiintegrals may be applied to find some significant
constraints on the motion of a body of infinitesimal mass. 相似文献