2050年前长江流域极端降水预估

20世纪90年代长江流域日最大降水增加主要出现在长江以南地区和金沙江流域,ECHAM5/MPI-OM模型也大致模拟出了这种趋势。在IPCC给出的3种不同的排放情景下,2000-2050年长江上游日最大降水均有上升趋势,2020年前A2情景下日最大降水最大,A1B最小;长江中下游日最大降水在2025年之前均有明显上升趋势,之后略有下降,波动较大。长江流域未来日最大降水增多的区域可能主要出现在长江以南地区,而极端降水减少的区域可能出现在长江以北地区。     

Small satellites for global coverage: Potential and limits

There is an increasing need for Earth Observation (EO) missions to meet the information requirements in connection with Global Change Studies. Small and cost-effective missions are powerful tools to flexibly react to information requirements with space-borne solutions. Small satellite missions can be conducted relatively quickly and inexpensively by using commercial off-the-shelf-technologies, or they can be enhanced by using advanced technologies. A new class of advanced small satellites, including autonomously operating “intelligent” satellites may be created, opening new fields of application. The increasing number of small satellites and their applications drive developments in the fields of small launchers, small ground station networks, cost-effective data distribution methods, and cost-effective management and quality assurance procedures. There are many advantages of small satellite missions, like more frequent mission opportunities, a faster return of data, larger variety of missions, more rapid expansion of the technical and/or scientific knowledge base, greater involvement of small industry, feasibility by universities and others.This paper deals with general trends in the field of small satellite missions for Earth observation. Special attention is given to the potential of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of small satellite based systems. Examples show small satellites offer also the unique possibility to install affordable constellations to provide good daily coverage of the globe and/or allow us to observe dynamic phenomena.The facts and examples given in this paper lead to the conclusion: Small satellites are already powerful tools for monitoring global, regional and local phenomena. In the future, their application spectrum will even broaden based on the ongoing development in many areas of technology and observation techniques.     

中国东部诸流域的干旱和湿润期:模式和预测

降水观测记录是近50a来中国九大流域干旱和湿润期时空变化分析的基础.以两年为时间尺度引入标准降水指数(SPI)来分析评价气候变化情景,结果表明黄河流域、长江流域和淮河(或珠江)流域等三个主要的区域表现为低频率变化指数:另外分析显示北方地区自20世纪70年代以来干旱更频繁的出现,在SPI时间序列中呈现负趋势变化.这也许与表征SPI信号的长周期有关(24a和48a周期).与这些长周期一起,也有一些其它方面的因素有助于频谱变化,范围从3a到9a不等.在指数时间序列中这些周期成分的存在为长期预测干旱和湿润期提供了很好的条件.     

Nano‐Powdered Calcium Carbonate Reference Materials: Significant Progress for Microanalysis?

Homogeneity, mass fractions of about forty trace elements and Sr isotope composition of Ca carbonate reference materials (RMs) between original and nano‐powdered pellets are compared. Our results using nanosecond and femtosecond LA‐(MC)‐ICP‐MS show that the nano‐pellets of the RMs MACS‐3NP, JCp‐1NP and JCt‐1NP are about a factor of 2–3 more homogeneous than the original samples MACS‐3, JCp‐1 and JCt‐1, and are therefore much more suitable for microanalytical purposes. With the exception of Si, the mass fractions of the synthetic RM MACS‐3 agree with its fine‐grained analogue MACS‐3NP. Very small, but significant, differences between original and nano‐pellets are observed in the RMs JCp‐1 and JCt‐1 for some trace elements with very low contents, indicating the need for re‐certification. Strontium mass fractions in the analysed RMs are high (1500–7000 mg kg^?1), and their isotope compositions determined by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS in the original and the nano‐pellets agree within uncertainty limits.     

广东河源断裂带地热成因及与构造关系初探

广东省河源断裂带位于中国东南沿海地热异常区,地热资源十分丰富,但其形成机制和利用前景尚不确定。为此文章开展了多学科综合分析,获得以下初步认识:温泉是断裂带内深循环地下水被地温加热而成,断裂剪切热和花岗岩浆残余热的贡献基本可以排除;沿断裂展布的厚层硅化带是古水热活动的产物;硅化带形成时期的挤压应力方向为北东-南西,与河源断裂及河源盆地晚白垩世以来的伸展活动对应,现代构造应力场为北西西-南东东方向挤压,与古应力场相比发生了明显变化;现今构造应力场使得北东向河源断裂呈右旋挤压运动,而北西向断裂则发生左旋张剪,导致地下水循环格局也发生相应改变;目前温泉沿河源断裂呈带分布,沿北西向断裂呈线性溢出,断裂交汇部位是热泉上升的主要通道。总体而言,河源地区拥有令人鼓舞的地热资源及应用前景,有可能达到建设地热发电厂的目标。建议继续深入开展地质学、地球物理、水文地质学和地热成因机理等多学科综合研究,从而更好地定量评价地热潜能与开发前景。     

Seismic attenuation and velocity dispersion in fractured rocks: The role played by fracture contact areas

The presence of fractures in fluid‐saturated porous rocks is usually associated with strong seismic P‐wave attenuation and velocity dispersion. This energy dissipation can be caused by oscillatory wave‐induced fluid pressure diffusion between the fractures and the host rock, an intrinsic attenuation mechanism generally referred to as wave‐induced fluid flow. Geological observations suggest that fracture surfaces are highly irregular at the millimetre and sub‐millimetre scale, which finds its expression in geometrical and mechanical complexities of the contact area between the fracture faces. It is well known that contact areas strongly affect the overall mechanical fracture properties. However, existing models for seismic attenuation and velocity dispersion in fractured rocks neglect this complexity. In this work, we explore the effects of fracture contact areas on seismic P‐wave attenuation and velocity dispersion using oscillatory relaxation simulations based on quasi‐static poroelastic equations. We verify that the geometrical and mechanical details of fracture contact areas have a strong impact on seismic signatures. In addition, our numerical approach allows us to quantify the vertical solid displacement jump across fractures, the key quantity in the linear slip theory. We find that the displacement jump is strongly affected by the geometrical details of the fracture contact area and, due to the oscillatory fluid pressure diffusion process, is complex‐valued and frequency‐dependent. By using laboratory measurements of stress‐induced changes in the fracture contact area, we relate seismic attenuation and dispersion to the effective stress. The corresponding results do indeed indicate that seismic attenuation and phase velocity may constitute useful attributes to constrain the effective stress. Alternatively, knowledge of the effective stress may help to identify the regions in which wave induced fluid flow is expected to be the dominant attenuation mechanism.     

Trends in extreme temperature indices in the Poyang Lake Basin,China

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature records at 78 meteorological stations in the Basin of China’s largest fresh water lake (Poyang Lake Basin), the temporal and spatial variability of 11 extreme temperature indices are investigated for the period 1959–2010. The analysis indicates that the annual mean of daily minimum temperature (T_min) has increased significantly, while no significant trends were observed in the annual mean of daily maximum temperature (T_max), resulting in a significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range. Trends and percentages of stations with significant trends in T_min-related indices are generally stronger and higher than those in T_max-related indices; however, no significant trends can be found in T_max-related indices (TXMean, TX90p, TXx and TX10p) at both seasonal and annual time scale. Low correlations with Global-SST ENSO index are also detected in T_max-related indices. Significant positive relationships can be found in T_min-related indices (TNMean, TNx, TNn and TN90p), however, the most significant negative coefficient was also found in cold nights (TN10p) with the Global-SST ENSO index. Singular value decomposition (SVD) correlating extreme temperatures over the Poyang Lake Basin and the North Pacific SST indicates the East China Sea, Western Pacific and Bering Sea to be stronger linked with T_min than T_max with the first mode (SVD-1) explaining 90 and 94 % of annual T_max and T_min respectively.