2050年前长江流域极端降水预估

20世纪90年代长江流域日最大降水增加主要出现在长江以南地区和金沙江流域,ECHAM5/MPI-OM模型也大致模拟出了这种趋势。在IPCC给出的3种不同的排放情景下,2000-2050年长江上游日最大降水均有上升趋势,2020年前A2情景下日最大降水最大,A1B最小;长江中下游日最大降水在2025年之前均有明显上升趋势,之后略有下降,波动较大。长江流域未来日最大降水增多的区域可能主要出现在长江以南地区,而极端降水减少的区域可能出现在长江以北地区。     

Trends in extreme temperature indices in the Poyang Lake Basin,China

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature records at 78 meteorological stations in the Basin of China’s largest fresh water lake (Poyang Lake Basin), the temporal and spatial variability of 11 extreme temperature indices are investigated for the period 1959–2010. The analysis indicates that the annual mean of daily minimum temperature (T_min) has increased significantly, while no significant trends were observed in the annual mean of daily maximum temperature (T_max), resulting in a significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range. Trends and percentages of stations with significant trends in T_min-related indices are generally stronger and higher than those in T_max-related indices; however, no significant trends can be found in T_max-related indices (TXMean, TX90p, TXx and TX10p) at both seasonal and annual time scale. Low correlations with Global-SST ENSO index are also detected in T_max-related indices. Significant positive relationships can be found in T_min-related indices (TNMean, TNx, TNn and TN90p), however, the most significant negative coefficient was also found in cold nights (TN10p) with the Global-SST ENSO index. Singular value decomposition (SVD) correlating extreme temperatures over the Poyang Lake Basin and the North Pacific SST indicates the East China Sea, Western Pacific and Bering Sea to be stronger linked with T_min than T_max with the first mode (SVD-1) explaining 90 and 94 % of annual T_max and T_min respectively.     

Seismic attenuation and velocity dispersion in fractured rocks: The role played by fracture contact areas

The presence of fractures in fluid‐saturated porous rocks is usually associated with strong seismic P‐wave attenuation and velocity dispersion. This energy dissipation can be caused by oscillatory wave‐induced fluid pressure diffusion between the fractures and the host rock, an intrinsic attenuation mechanism generally referred to as wave‐induced fluid flow. Geological observations suggest that fracture surfaces are highly irregular at the millimetre and sub‐millimetre scale, which finds its expression in geometrical and mechanical complexities of the contact area between the fracture faces. It is well known that contact areas strongly affect the overall mechanical fracture properties. However, existing models for seismic attenuation and velocity dispersion in fractured rocks neglect this complexity. In this work, we explore the effects of fracture contact areas on seismic P‐wave attenuation and velocity dispersion using oscillatory relaxation simulations based on quasi‐static poroelastic equations. We verify that the geometrical and mechanical details of fracture contact areas have a strong impact on seismic signatures. In addition, our numerical approach allows us to quantify the vertical solid displacement jump across fractures, the key quantity in the linear slip theory. We find that the displacement jump is strongly affected by the geometrical details of the fracture contact area and, due to the oscillatory fluid pressure diffusion process, is complex‐valued and frequency‐dependent. By using laboratory measurements of stress‐induced changes in the fracture contact area, we relate seismic attenuation and dispersion to the effective stress. The corresponding results do indeed indicate that seismic attenuation and phase velocity may constitute useful attributes to constrain the effective stress. Alternatively, knowledge of the effective stress may help to identify the regions in which wave induced fluid flow is expected to be the dominant attenuation mechanism.     

Evidence for low‐temperature growth of fayalite and hedenbergite in MacAlpine Hills 88107, an ungrouped carbonaceous chondrite related to the CM‐CO clan

Abstract— The carbonaceous chondrite MacAlpine Hills (MAC) 88107 has bulk composition and mineralogy that are intermediate between those of CO and CM chondrites. This meteorite experienced minor alteration and a low degree of thermal metamorphism (petrologic type 3.1) and escaped post‐accretional brecciation. The alteration resulted in the formation of fayalite (Fa_90–100). Al‐free hedenbergite (～Fs₅₀Wo₅₀), phyllosilicates (saponite‐serpentine intergrowths), magnetite, and Ni‐bearing sulfides (pyrrhotite and pentlandite). Fayalite and hedenbergite typically occur as veins, which start at the opaque nodules in the chondrule peripheries, crosscut fine‐grained rims and either terminate at the boundaries with the neighboring fine‐grained rims or continue as layers between these rims. These observations suggest that fayalite and hedenbergite crystallized after accretion and compaction of the fine‐grained rims. Fayalite also overgrows isolated forsteritic (Fa_1–5) and fayalitic (Fa_20–40) olivine grains without any evidence for Fe‐Mg interdiffusion; it also replaces massive magnetite‐sulfide grains. The initial ⁵³Mn/⁵⁵Mn ratio of (1.58 ± 0.26) × 10^?6 in the MAC 88107 fayalite corresponds to an age difference between the formation of fayalite and refractory inclusions in Allende of either ～9 or 18 Ma, depending upon the value of the solar system initial abundance of ⁵³Mn used in age calculations. Formation of secondary fayalite and hedenbergite requires mobilization and transport of Ca, Si, and Fe either through a high‐temperature gaseous phase (Hua and Buseck, 1995) or low‐temperature aqueous solution (Krot et al., 1998a, b). The high‐temperature nebular model for the origin of fayalite (Hua and Buseck, 1995) fails to explain (a) formation of fayalite‐hedenbergite assemblages after accretion of fine‐grained rims that lack any evidence for high‐temperature processing; (b) extreme fractionation of refractory lithophile elements of similar volatility, Ca and Al, in hedenbergite; and (c) absence of Fe‐Mg interdiffusion along fayalite‐forsterite boundaries. We conclude that fayalite and hedenbergite in MAC 88107 formed during late‐stage, low‐temperature (approximately 150–200 °C) aqueous alteration. The data for MAC 88107 extend the evidence for an early onset of aqueous activity on chondrite parent bodies and reinforce the conclusion that liquid water played an important role in the chemical and mineralogical evolution of the first chondritic planetesimals.     

Three-dimensional Separator Reconnection – How Does It Occur?

In two dimensions magnetic energy release takes place at locations where the magnetic field strength becomes zero and has an x-point topology. The x-point topology can collapse into two y-points connected by a current sheet when the advection of magnetic flux into the x-point is larger than the dissipation of magnetic flux at the x-point. In three dimensions magnetic fields may also contain singularities in the form of three-dimensional null points. Three-dimensional nulls are created in pairs and are therefore, at least in the initial stages, always connected by at least one field line – the separator. The separator line is defined by the intersection of the fan planes of the two nulls. In the plane perpendicular to a single separator the field line topology locally has a two dimensional x-point structure. Using a numerical approach we find that the collapse of the separator can be initiated at the two nulls by a velocity shear across the fan plane. It is found that for a current concentration to connect the two nulls along the separator, the current sheet can only obtain two different orientations relative to the field line structure of the nulls. The sheet has to have an orientation midway between the fan plane and the spine axis of each null. As part of this process the spine axes are found to lose their identity by transforming into an integrated part of the separator surfaces that divide space into four magnetically independent regions around the current sheet.     

Calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions in enstatite chondrites (I): Mineralogy and textures

Abstract— Like calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs) from carbonaceous and ordinary chondrites, enstatite chondrite CAIs are composed of refractory minerals such as spinel, perovskite, Al, Ti‐diopside, melilite, hibonite, and anorthitic plagioclase, which may be partially to completely surrounded by halos of Na‐(±Cl)‐rich minerals. Porous, aggregate, and compact textures of the refractory cores in enstatite chondrite CAIs and rare Wark—Lovering rims are also similar to CAIs from other chondrite groups. However, the small size (<100μm), low abundance (<1% by mode in thin section), occurrence of only spinel or hibonite‐rich types, and presence of primary Ti‐(±V)‐oxides, and secondary geikelite and Ti, Fe‐sulfides distinguish the assemblage of enstatite chondrite CAIs from other groups. The primary mineral assemblage in enstatite chondrite CAIs is devoid of indicators (e.g., oldhamite, osbornite) of low O fugacities. Thus, high‐temperature processing of the CAIs did not occur under the reducing conditions characteristic of enstatite chondrites, implying that either (1) the CAIs are foreign to enstatite‐chondrite‐forming regions or (2) O fugacities fluctuated within the enstatite‐chondrite‐forming region. In contrast, secondary geikelite and Ti‐Fe‐sulfide, which replace perovskite, indicate that alteration of perovskite occurred under reducing conditions distinct from CAIs in the other chondrite groups. We have not ascertained whether the reduced alteration of enstatite chondrite CAIs occurred in a nebular or parent‐body setting. We conclude that each chondrite group is correlated with a unique assemblage of CAIs, indicating spatial or temporal variations in physical conditions during production or dispersal of CAIs.     

A clast of Bali‐like oxidized CV material in the reduced CV chondrite breccia Vigarano

Abstract— The CV (Vigarano‐type) chondrites are a petrologically diverse group of meteorites that are divided into the reduced and the Bali‐like and Allende‐like oxidized subgroups largely based on secondary mineralogy (Weisberg et al., 1997; Krot et al., 1998b). Some chondrules and calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs) in the reduced CV chondrite Vigarano show alteration features similar to those in Allende: metal is oxidized to magnetite; low‐Ca pyroxene, forsterite, and magnetite are rimmed and veined by ferrous olivine (Fs_40–50); and plagioclase mesostases and melilite are replaced by nepheline and sodalite (Sylvester et al., 1993; Kimura and Ikeda, 1996, 1997, 1998). Our petrographic observations indicate that Vigarano also contains individual chondrules, chondrule fragments, and lithic clasts of the Bali‐like oxidized CV materials. The largest lithic clast (about 1 times 2 cm in size) is composed of opaque matrix, type‐I chondrules (400–2000 μm in apparent diameter) surrounded by coarse‐grained and fine‐grained rims, and rare CAIs. The matrix‐chondrule ratio is about 1.1. Opaque nodules in chondrules in the clast consist of Cr‐poor and Cr‐rich magnetite, Ni‐ and Co‐rich metal, Ni‐poor and Ni‐rich sulfide; low‐Ni metal nodules occur only inside chondrule phenocrysts. Chromium‐poor magnetite is preferentially replaced by fayalite. Chondrule mesostases are replaced by phyllosilicates; low‐Ca pyroxene and olivine phenocrysts appear to be unaltered. Matrix in the clast consists of very fine‐grained (<1 μm) ferrous olivine, anhedral fayalite grains (Fa_80–100), rounded objects of porous Ca‐Fe‐rich pyroxenes (Fs_10–50Wo₅₀), Ni‐poor sulfide, Ni‐ and Co‐rich metal, and phyllosilicates; magnetite is rare. On the basis of the presence of the Bali‐like lithified chondritic clast—in addition to individual chondrules and CAIs of both Bali‐like and Allende‐like materials—in the reduced CV chondrite Vigarano, we infer that (1) all three types of materials were mixed during regolith gardening on the CV asteroidal body, and (2) the reduced and oxidized CV materials may have originated from a single, heterogeneously altered asteroid.     

The Moho Structure in The Western Eger Rift: A Receiver Function Experiment

We used teleseismic recordings of a temporary deployment of seismic stations and of permanent short period stations in the western Eger Rift system to study the lithosphere with the help of Receiver Functions. The crust-mantle boundary (Moho) is observed at almost all stations by strong P-to-S converted phases. The Moho is basically flat between about 26 – 30 km depth in the entire region. At one station in the Eger Rift (BOH-1, Loket castle) no Moho is observed. We interpret this with the existence of a broad gradient zone there, instead of a sharp discontinuity. This observation, however, needs to be confirmed by more data.     

中国东部诸流域的干旱和湿润期:模式和预测

降水观测记录是近50a来中国九大流域干旱和湿润期时空变化分析的基础.以两年为时间尺度引入标准降水指数(SPI)来分析评价气候变化情景,结果表明黄河流域、长江流域和淮河(或珠江)流域等三个主要的区域表现为低频率变化指数:另外分析显示北方地区自20世纪70年代以来干旱更频繁的出现,在SPI时间序列中呈现负趋势变化.这也许与表征SPI信号的长周期有关(24a和48a周期).与这些长周期一起,也有一些其它方面的因素有助于频谱变化,范围从3a到9a不等.在指数时间序列中这些周期成分的存在为长期预测干旱和湿润期提供了很好的条件.