Global strain rates in western to central Himalayas and their implications in seismic hazard assessment

The Himalayas has experienced varying rates of earthquake occurrence in the past in its seismo-tectonically distinguished segments which may be attributed to different physical processes of accumulation of stress and its release, and due diligence is required for its inclusion for working out the seismic hazard. The present paper intends to revisit the various earthquake occurrence models applied to Himalayas and examines it in the light of recent damaging earthquakes in Himalayan belt. Due to discordant seismicity of Himalayas, three types of regions have been considered to estimate larger return period events. The regions selected are (1) the North-West Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt which is seismically very active, (2) the Garhwal Himalaya which has never experienced large earthquake although sufficient stress exists and (3) the Nepal region which is very seismically active region due to unlocked rupture and frequently experienced large earthquake events. The seismicity parameters have been revisited using two earthquake recurrence models namely constant seismicity and constant moment release. For constant moment release model, the strain rates have been derived from global strain rate model and are converted into seismic moment of earthquake events considering the geometry of the finite source and the rates being consumed fully by the contemporary seismicity. Probability of earthquake occurrence with time has been estimated for each region using both models and compared assuming Poissonian distribution. The results show that seismicity for North-West region is observed to be relatively less when estimated using constant seismicity model which implies that either the occupied accumulated stress is not being unconfined in the form of earthquakes or the compiled earthquake catalogue is insufficient. Similar trend has been observed for seismic gap area but with lesser difference reported from both methods. However, for the Nepal region, the estimated seismicity by the two methods has been found to be relatively less when estimated using constant moment release model which implies that in the Nepal region, accumulated strain is releasing in the form of large earthquake occurrence event. The partial release in second event of May 2015 of similar size shows that the physical process is trying to release the energy with large earthquake event. If it would have been in other regions like that of seismic gap region, the fault may not have released the energy and may be inviting even bigger event in future. It is, therefore, necessary to look into the seismicity from strain rates also for its due interpretation in terms of predicting the seismic hazard in various segments of Himalayas.     

Mapping of apple orchards using remote sensing techniques in cold desert of Himachal Pradesh,India

The present study was conducted to map Apple orchards in dry alpine Spiti region of Indian Himalaya using LISS III satellite image. The barren terrain with sparse woody vegetation helped in classification of apple orchards with 91.3 % accuracy. The orchards were found in 154.6 ha of the study area and are anticipated to expand owing to its economic importance.     

Computable extensions of generalized fractional kinetic equations in astrophysics

Fractional calculus and special functions have contributed a lot to mathematical physics and its various branches.The great use of mathematical physics in distinguished astrophysical problems has attracted astronomers and physicists to pay more attention to available mathematical tools that can be widely used in solving several problems of astrophysics/physics.In view of the great importance and usefulness of kinetic equations in certain astrophysical problems,the authors derive a generalized fractional kin...     

Paleo-ocean chemistry records in marine opal: Implications for fluxes of trace elements, cosmogenic nuclides (Be and Al), and biological productivity

Here, we provide evidence suggesting that marine (diatom) opal contains not only a high fidelity record of dissolved oceanic concentrations of cosmic ray-produced radionuclides, ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, but also a record of temporal variations in a large number of trace elements such as Ti, Fe, Zn and Mn. This finding is derived from measurements in purified biogenic opal that can be separated from detrital materials using a newly developed technique based on surface charge characteristics. Initial results from a sediment core taken near the present-day position of the Antarctic Polar Front (ODP Site 1093) show dramatic changes in the intrinsic concentrations of, Be, Al, Ti, Fe, Mn and Zn in the opal assemblages during the past ∼140 kyr BP. The results imply appreciable climatically controlled fluctuations in the level of bioreactive trace elements. The time series of total Be, Al, Ti, Fe and ¹⁰Be in the sediment core are all well correlated with each other and with dust records in the polar ice cores. The observations suggest that a significant flux of these trace metals to oceans is contributed by the aeolian dust, in this case, presumably from the Patagonia. This observation also allows determination of fluxes of dust-contributed ¹⁰Be to the Antarctica ice sheets. However, our data show that the relationships among the various metals are not perfectly linear. During periods of higher dissolved concentrations of trace elements (indicated by Fe and Ti) the relative concentrations of bioreactive elements, Be, Al, Mn and Zn are decreased. By contrast, the Fe/Zn and Fe/Mn ratios decrease significantly during each transition from cold to warm periods. The relative behavior could be consistent with any of the following processes: (i) enhanced biological productivity due to greater supply of the bioreactive elements (e.g. Zn) during cold periods (ii) increased biological and inorganic scavenging of particle active elements (e.g. Be and Al) during early interglacial periods (iii) differential uptake/removal of the metals by the various diatom taxa whose relative productivity or growth rate changes with large scale climate. In any case, with one sedimentary phase and in single sedimentary sections, we now have the potential to compare directly a proxy for aeolian input of micronutrients (e.g. Fe or Ti), with a proxy for production (e.g. ²⁶Al/Al ratios). We expect that studies of the temporal records of trace elements and cosmogenic nuclides in contrasting regions of upwelling and productivity, which exhibit different sensitivities to global climate fluctuations and micronutrient inputs, would lead to a direct and comprehensive test of ideas such as the hypothesis of iron control of atmospheric carbon dioxide [Martin, J.H., 1990. Glacial-interglacial CO₂ change: the iron hypothesis. Paleoceanography5, 1-13]. Our present data from a single site do not show that increases in dissolved Fe concentrations, per se, were responsible for increased biological productivity. However, a much clearer picture of the effect of increased dust fluxes should emerge when we have data for trace elements and the cosmogenic nuclides, ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al from various oceanic provinces.     

Depositional history of Luna 24 drill core soil samples

Six soil samples from various depths of the Luna 24 drill core column have been analysed for their particle track records and light noble gas compositions. The observed particle track records indicate higher degree of maturity for the upper zone (～1 m) of this regolith column as compared to the soils in the lower zone (～0.4 m). The cosmogenic²¹Ne concentrations decrease rapidly with depth to 1 m, after which the concentrations level off or increase slightly. These data suggest a multi-stage depositional history for this drill core soil column consisting of: (1) rapid deposition of regolith material, (2) a cratering event about 400 m.y. B.P., leading to excavation to a depth of ～1 m from the present regolith surface, (3) a relatively rapid fill up of the crater with near-surface irradiated material, and (4) in-situ irradiation during the last about 250–300 m.y. Such a depositional sequence can also explain the observed lack of correlation between different surface exposure-correlated maturity indices in these drill core soil samples.     

New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing long-range forecasts (LRF) based on statistical methods for the southwest monsoon rainfall over India (ISMR) for more than 100 years. Many statistical and dynamical models including the operational models of IMD failed to predict the recent deficient monsoon years of 2002 and 2004. In this paper, we report the improved results of new experimental statistical models developed for LRF of southwest monsoon seasonal (June–September) rainfall. These models were developed to facilitate the IMD’s present two-stage operational forecast strategy. Models based on the ensemble multiple linear regression (EMR) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) techniques were developed to forecast the ISMR. These models used new methods of predictor selection and model development. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate data sets; two predictor sets, each consisting of six predictors were selected. Our model performance was evaluated for the period from 1981 to 2004 by sliding the model training period with a window length of 23 years. The new models showed better performance in their hindcast, compared to the model based on climatology. The Heidke scores for the three category forecasts during the verification period by the first stage models based on EMR and PPR methods were 0.5 and 0.44, respectively, and those of June models were 0.63 and 0.38, respectively. Root mean square error of these models during the verification period (1981–2004) varied between 4.56 and 6.75% from long period average (LPA) as against 10.0% from the LPA of the model based on climatology alone. These models were able to provide correct forecasts of the recent two deficient monsoon rainfall events (2002 and 2004). The experimental forecasts for the 2005 southwest monsoon season based on these models were also found to be accurate.     

Cosmic ray produced isotopes in terrestrial systems

Continuing improvements in the sensitivity of measurement of cosmic ray produced isotopes in environmental samples have progressively broadened the scope of their applications to characterise and quantify a wide variety of processes in earth and planetary sciences. In this article, I will concentrate on the new developments in the field of nuclear geophysics, based on isotopic changes produced by cosmic rays in the terrestrial systems. This field, which is best described as cosmic ray geophysics, caught roots with the discovery of cosmogenic¹⁴C on the Earth by Willard Libby in 1948, and grew rapidly at first, but slowed down during the ’60s and ’70s. In the ’80s, there was arenaissance in cosmic ray produced isotope studies, thanks mainly to the developments of the accelerator mass spectrometry technique capable of measuring minute amounts of radioactivity in terrestrial samples. This technological advance has considerably enhanced the applications of cosmic ray produced isotopes and today we find them being used to address diverse problems in earth and planetary sciences I discuss the present scope of the field of cosmic ray geophysics with an emphasis ongeomorphology. I must stress here that this is the decade in which this field, which has been studied passionately by geographers, geomorphologists and geochemists for more than five decades, has at its service nuclear methods to introduce numeric time controls in the range of centuries to millions of years.