Estimating Travel Times of Coronal Mass Ejections to 1 AU Using Multi-spacecraft Coronagraph Data

We study the relationship between the speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) obtained close to the Sun and in the interplanetary medium during the low solar-activity period from 2008 to 2010. We use a multi-spacecraft forward-modeling technique to fit a flux-rope-like model to white-light coronagraph images from the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft to estimate the geometrical configuration, propagation in three-dimensions (3D), and the radial speeds of the observed CMEs. The 3D speeds obtained in this way are used in existing CME travel-time prediction models. The results are compared to the actual CME transit times from the Sun to STEREO, ACE, and Wind spacecraft as well as to the transit times calculated using projected CME speeds. CME 3D speeds give slightly better predictions than projected CME speeds, but a large scatter is observed between the predicted and observed travel times, even when 3D speeds are used. We estimate the possible sources of errors and find a weak tendency for large interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) with high magnetic fields to arrive faster than predicted and small, low-magnetic-field ICMEs to arrive later than predicted. The observed CME transit times from the Sun to 1?AU show a particularly good correlation with the upstream solar-wind speed. Similar trends have not been observed in previous studies using data sets near solar maximum. We suggest that near solar minimum a relatively narrow range of CME initial speeds, sizes, and magnetic-field magnitudes led to a situation where aerodynamic drag between CMEs and ambient solar wind was the primary cause of variations in CME arrival times from the Sun to 1?AU.     

Three-Dimensional Evolution of Erupted Flux Ropes from the Sun (2 – 20 R ⊙) to 1 AU

Studying the evolution of magnetic clouds entrained in coronal mass ejections using in-situ data is a difficult task, since only a limited number of observational points is available at large heliocentric distances. Remote sensing observations can, however, provide important information for events close to the Sun. In this work we estimate the flux rope orientation first in the close vicinity of the Sun (2?–?20 R _⊙) using forward modeling of STEREO/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images of coronal mass ejections and then in situ using Grad–Shafranov reconstruction of the magnetic cloud. Thus, we are able to measure changes in the orientation of the erupted flux ropes as they propagate from the Sun to 1 AU. We present both techniques and use them to study 15 magnetic clouds observed during the minimum following Solar Cycle 23 and the rise of Solar Cycle 24. This is the first multievent study to compare the three-dimensional parameters of CMEs from imaging and in-situ reconstructions. The results of our analysis confirm earlier studies showing that the flux ropes tend to deflect towards the solar equatorial plane. We also find evidence of rotation on their travel from the Sun to 1 AU. In contrast to past studies, our method allows one to deduce the evolution of the three-dimensional orientation of individual flux ropes rather than on a statistical basis.     

Solar Sources of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During the Solar Cycle 23/24 Minimum

We examine solar sources for 20 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed in 2009 in the near-Earth solar wind. We performed a detailed analysis of coronagraph and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Our study shows that the coronagraph observations from viewpoints away from the Sun–Earth line are paramount to locate the solar sources of Earth-bound ICMEs during solar minimum. SOHO/LASCO detected only six CMEs in our sample, and only one of these CMEs was wider than 120^°. This demonstrates that observing a full or partial halo CME is not necessary to observe the ICME arrival. Although the two STEREO spacecraft had the best possible configuration for observing Earth-bound CMEs in 2009, we failed to find the associated CME for four ICMEs, and identifying the correct CME was not straightforward even for some clear ICMEs. Ten out of 16 (63 %) of the associated CMEs in our study were “stealth” CMEs, i.e. no obvious EUV on-disk activity was associated with them. Most of our stealth CMEs also lacked on-limb EUV signatures. We found that stealth CMEs generally lack the leading bright front in coronagraph images. This is in accordance with previous studies that argued that stealth CMEs form more slowly and at higher coronal altitudes than non-stealth CMEs. We suggest that at solar minimum the slow-rising CMEs do not draw enough coronal plasma around them. These CMEs are hence difficult to discern in the coronagraphic data, even when viewed close to the plane of the sky. The weak ICMEs in our study were related to both intrinsically narrow CMEs and the non-central encounters of larger CMEs. We also demonstrate that narrow CMEs (angular widths ≤?20^°) can arrive at Earth and that an unstructured CME may result in a flux rope-type ICME.     

Grad–Shafranov Reconstruction of Magnetic Clouds: Overview and Improvements

The Grad–Shafranov reconstruction is a method of estimating the orientation (invariant axis) and cross section of magnetic flux ropes using the data from a single spacecraft. It can be applied to various magnetic structures such as magnetic clouds (MCs) and flux ropes embedded in the magnetopause and in the solar wind. We develop a number of improvements of this technique and show some examples of the reconstruction procedure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed at 1 AU by the STEREO, Wind, and ACE spacecraft during the minimum following Solar Cycle 23. The analysis is conducted not only for ideal localized ICME events but also for non-trivial cases of magnetic clouds in fast solar wind. The Grad–Shafranov reconstruction gives reasonable results for the sample events, although it possesses certain limitations, which need to be taken into account during the interpretation of the model results.     

Cyclic Reversal of Magnetic Cloud Poloidal Field

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) carry magnetic structure from the low corona into the heliosphere. The interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) that exhibit the topology of helical magnetic fluxropes are traditionally called magnetic clouds (MCs). MC fluxropes with axis of low (high) inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane have been referred to as bipolar (unipolar) MCs. The poloidal field of bipolar MCs has a solar cycle dependence. We report a cyclic reversal of the poloidal field of low inclination MC fluxropes during 1976 to 2009. The MC poloidal field cyclic reversal on the same time scale of the solar magnetic cycle is evident over three sunspot cycles. Approximately 48% of ICMEs are MCs, and 40% of IMCs are bipolar MCs during solar cycle 23. The speed of the bipolar MCs has essentially the same distribution as all ICMEs, which implies that they are not from any special type of CMEs in terms of the solar origin. Although CME fluxropes may undergo a number of complications during the eruption and propagation, a significant group of MCs retains sufficient similarity to the source region magnetic field to posses the same cyclic periodicity in polarity reversal. The poloidal field of bipolar MCs gives the out-of-ecliptic-plane field or B _z component in the IMF time series. MCs with southward B _z field are particularly effective in causing geomagnetic disturbances. During the solar minima, the B _z field IMF sequence within MCs at the leading portion of a bipolar MC is the same with the solar global dipole field. Our finding shows that MCs preferentially remove the like polarity of the solar dipole field, and it supports the participation of CMEs in the solar magnetic cycle.