The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO₂ abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO₂ abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.     

Fe-rich and K-rich mafic spherules from slumped and channelized Chicxulub ejecta deposits in the northern La Sierrita area,NE Mexico

Spherule deposits, commonly interpreted as ejecta from the Chicxulub impact at Yucatán, Mexico, are present in many K-T (Cretaceous-Tertiary) sections. Geological mapping of the northern La Sierrita area, NE Mexico, revealed the presence of (1) multiple spherule deposits embedded in late Maastrichtian marls, which are folded or disaggregated (breccia-like). They are up to 6 m thick, locally present in two outcrop areas, and show limited lateral continuity. These deposits consist of mm-cm sized spherical to drop-shaped vesiculated spherules, angular to filamentous (ejecta-) fragments and abundant carbonate. They are interpreted as primary ejecta fallout deposits that have been affected by subsequent local slumps-slides, liquefaction, and debris flows; welded components suggest an initial ground surge-like ejecta-dispersion mode. (2) A spherule deposit, 10-60 cm thick that constitutes the base of a channelized sand-siltstone deposit at, or close to, the K-T boundary and is characterized by wide lateral continuity. It is of similar petrologic composition to deposit (1), though slightly enriched in terrigeneous detritus, thus reflecting influx from proximal shelf areas. It is interpreted to result from debris flows and turbidite currents, though no size sorting and abrasion of ejecta has been observed. Petrological, mineralogical, and geochemical criteria suggest that ejecta components from both types of spherule deposits are similar and originated from the Chicxulub impact, with multiple deposits produced by subsequent remolding, reworking, and redeposition. Spherules and fragments have an Fe- (25-30 wt%), Al-, Mg-rich and Si-poor (<25 wt% SiO₂) composition, and are altered to chlorite and iron-oxides, though rare K-rich mafic glass (~50 wt% SiO₂; 5-8 wt% K) is also present. They contain Ti-, Fe-, K-rich schlieren, Fe-, Mg-rich globules, and rare µm-sized metallic and sulfidic Ni-, Co-rich inclusions. Carbonate as clasts and within spherules and fragments shows textures indicative of quenching and/or liquid immiscibility. Although potential ejecta fractionation and alteration make accurate evaluation difficult, this composition suggests an ejecta origin mainly from mafic lithologies and carbonaceous sediments, in addition to a contribution from intermediate felsic rocks and the possibility of meteoritic contamination.     

Magnetic polarity stratigraphy of the Upper Siwalik deposits,Pabbi Hills,Pakistan

Over 1000 m of fluvial molasse, exhibiting a stable detrital remanent magnetization, is exposed in a mammal-bearing sequence in the Upper Siwalik Group of the Pabbi Hills, Pakistan. The magnetic polarity chronology reveals that the sequence records a time period of 2.6 m.y., extending from the early Gauss Normal Epoch into the Brunhes Normal Epoch. During this period, sedimentation rates increased upward in time from 0.25 m/1000 yr to 0.45 m/1000 yr. The sudden disappearance of red beds and a change in the lithoclastic composition of basal channel sands suggests that about 800,000 years ago the primary source area began shifting from the metamorphic terrane of the Himalayan Orogen to a more local sedimentary terrane on the folded margins of the Himalayan foredeep. About 500,000 years ago the anticlinal Pabbi Hills attained surface expression. Uplift continued at a minimum rate of 1 m/1000 yr.A local Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary based on the Olduvai Normal Event is clearly recognized. Local fossil finds reveal thatEquus, diagnostic element of the Pinjor faunal zone, appeared locally about 1.8 m.y. ago and thatHipparion, a faunal element of the Tatrot and earlier faunal zones, persisted locally until at least 3.0 m.y. ago.     

Representation of planar integral-transformations by 4-D wavelet decomposition

In one way or the other, numerical methods for the evaluation of integral operators can often be related to the solution of the so-called Galerkin equations. For convolution operators and exponentials with purely imaginary exponents as base functions the Galerkin matrix becomes diagonal and this fact is the core of the FFT techniques, used in Physical Geodesy. For non-convolution operators the FFT technique is not applicable. This paper aims at the development of a technique, which can also be applied for non-convolution operators. This technique is based on the use of wavelets as base functions. In this case the Galerkin matrix is not diagonal but (after thresholding) very sparse and this leads to methods, which are similarly efficient as FFT in the convolution case. The paper starts with the theoretical background for n-dimensional wavelet analysis and the representation of integral operators with respect to those wavelet bases. The resulting algorithm is tested for convolution and non-convolution operators.     

Singularity free formulations of the geodetic boundary value problem in gravity-space

The idea of transforming the geodetic boundary value problem into a boundary value problem with a fixed boundary dates back to the 1970s of the last century. This transformation was found by F. Sanso and was named as gravity-space transformation. Unfortunately, the advantage of having a fixed boundary for the transformed problem was counterbalanced by the theoretical as well as practical disadvantage of a singularity at the origin. In the present paper two more versions of a gravity-space transformation are investigated, where none of them has a singularity. In both cases the transformed differential equations are nonlinear. Therefore, a special emphasis is laid on the linearized problems and their relationships to the simple Hotine-problem and to the symmetries between both formulations. Finally, in numerical simulation study the accuracy of the solutions of both linearized problems is studied and factors limiting this accuracy are identified.     

Monitoring persistent organic pollutants in leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) confirms maternal transfer

To assess threats to endangered species, it is critical to establish baselines for contaminant concentrations that may have detrimental consequences to individuals or populations. We measured contaminants in blubber and fat from dead leatherback turtles and established baselines in blood and eggs in nesting turtles. In fat, blubber, blood and eggs, the predominant PCBs were 153 + 132, 187 + 182, 138 + 163, 118, and 180 + 193. Total PCBs, 4,4′-DDE, total PBDEs and total chlordanes were significantly and positively correlated between blood and eggs, suggesting maternal transfer. Significant positive relationships also existed between fat and blubber in stranded leatherbacks. Less lipophilic PCBs appeared to more readily transfer from females to their eggs. PBDE profiles in the four tissues were similar to other wildlife populations but different from some turtle studies. Concentrations were lower than those shown to have acute toxic effects in other aquatic reptiles, but may have sub-lethal effects on hatchling body condition and health.     

Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) causes considerable risks. Designing a sound SLR risk-management strategy requires careful consideration of decision-relevant uncertainties such as the reasonable upper bound of future SLR. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter). More recent studies considering semi-empirical modeling approaches and kinematic constraints on glacial melting suggest a reasonable 2100 SLR upper bound of approximately 2 m. These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and/or observational constraints on ocean heat uptake. Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake. Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric SLR compared to previous estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100 SLR projections by 0.25 m. As an illustrative example of the effect of overconfidence, we show how neglecting thermosteric uncertainty in projections of the SLR upper bound can considerably bias risk analysis and hence the design of adaptation strategies. For conditions close to the Port of Los Angeles, the 0.25 m increase in the reasonable upper bound can result in a flooding-risk increase by roughly three orders of magnitude. Results provide evidence that relatively minor underestimation of the upper bound of projected SLR can lead to major downward biases of future flooding risks.     

Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics

Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.     

Sensitivity of nitrate concentration-discharge patterns to soil nitrate distribution and drainage properties in the vertical dimension

We propose a conceptual model that examines the ‘variable source area’ (VSA) and ‘nitrate flushing’ hypothesis in the vertical direction, and use this approach to explain nitrate concentration–discharge relationships in a semi-arid watershed. We use an eco-hydrology simulation model (RHESSys) to show that small changes in the vertical distribution of nitrate mass and their interaction with soil hydraulic conductivity can result in abrupt changes in the nitrate concentration–discharge relationship. We show that the estimated concentration–discharge relationship is sensitive to the parameters governing soil vertical nitrate distribution and soil hydraulic conductivity, at both patch scale and watershed scale, where lateral redistribution of water and nitrate is also accounted for. Given heterogeneity in nitrogen inputs, uptake processes, soil drainage and storage processes, substantial variation in parameters that describe rate of changes in vertical distribution of soil nitrate and hydraulic properties is likely both within and between watersheds. Thus, we argue that vertical ‘variable source area’ processes may be as important as lateral VSA in determining concentration discharge relationships.