Long-term climate response to stabilized and overshoot anthropogenic forcings beyond the twenty-first century

From multi-ensembles of climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model version 3, global climate changes have been investigated focusing on long-term responses to stabilized anthropogenic forcings. In addition to the standard forcing scenarios for the current international assessment, an overshoot scenario, where radiative forcings are decreased from one stabilized level to another, is also considered. The globally-averaged annual surface air temperature increases during the twenty-first century by 2.58 and 1.56°C for increased forcings under two future scenarios denoted by A1B and B1, respectively. These changes continue but at much slower rates in later centuries under forcings stabilized at year 2100. The overshoot scenario provides a different pathway to the lower B1 level by way of the greater A1B level. This scenario results in a surface climate similar to that in the B1 scenario within 100 years after the forcing reaches the B1 level. Contrasting to the surface changes, responses in the ocean are significantly delayed. It is estimated from the linear response theory that temperature changes under stabilized forcings to a final equilibrium state in the A1B (B1) scenario are factors of 0.3–0.4, 0.9, and 17 (0.3, 0.6, and 11) to changes during the twenty-first century, respectively, for three ocean layers of the surface to 100, 100–500, and 500 m to the bottom. Although responses in the lower ocean layers imply a nonlinear behavior, the ocean temperatures in the overshoot and B1 scenarios are likely to converge in their final equilibrium states.     

Seismicity changes related to a water injection experiment in the Nojima Fault Zone

Abstract A water injection experiment was carried out by the scientific drilling program named the 'Nojima Fault Zone Probe' during the two periods 9–13 February and 16–25 March 1997. The pumping pressure at the surface was approximately 4 MPa. The total amount of injected water was 258 m³. The injection was made between depths of 1480 m and 1670 m in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) 1800 m borehole drilled into the Nojima Fault zone. A seismic observation network was deployed to monitor seismic activity related to the water injections. Seismicity suddenly increased in the region not far from the injection hole 4 or 5 days after the beginning of each water injection. These earthquakes were likely to be induced by the water injections. Most of the earthquakes had magnitudes ranging from −2 to +1. Numerous earthquakes occurred during the first injection, but only one could be reliably located and it was approximately 2 km north of the injection site. Between the two injection periods, earthquakes concentrated in the region approximately 1 km northwest of the injection site. During and after the second injection experiment, earthquakes were located approximately 1.5 km west of the injection site. Those earthquakes were located approximately 3 km or 4 km from the injection point and between 2 km and 4 km in depth. Values of intrinsic permeability of 10⁻¹⁴–10⁻¹⁵ m² were estimated from the time lapse of the induced seismic activity. The coefficient of friction in the area where the induced earthquakes occurred was estimated to be less than 0.3.     

The 1989 submarine eruption off eastern Izu Peninsula,Japan: ejecta and eruption mechanisms

The submarine eruption of a new small knoll, which was named Teishi knoll, off eastern Izu Peninsula behind the Izu-Mariana arc occurred in the evening of 13 July 1989. This is the first historic eruption of the Higashi-Izu monogenetic volcano group. The eruption of 13 July followed an earthquake swarm near Ito city starting on 30 June. There were subsequent volcanic tremors on 11 and 12 July, and the formation of the Teishi knoll on the 100 m deep insular shelf 4 km northeast of Ito city. There were five submarine explosions, which were characterized by intermittent domelike bulges of water and black tephra-jets, which occurred within 10 min on 13 July. Ejecta of the eruption was small in volume and composed of highly crystalline basalt scoria, highly vesiculated pumice, and lithic material. Petrographical features suggest that the pumice was produced by vesiculation of reheated wet felsic tuff of an older formation. The Teishi knoll, before the eruption, was a circular dome, 450 m across and 25 m high, with steep sides and a flat summit. Considerations of submarine topographic change indicate the knoll was raised by sill-like intrusion of 10⁶ m³ of magma beneath a 30 m thick sediment blanket. This shallow intrusion is assumed to have started on 11 July when volcanic tremors were observed for the first time, but there was no indications of violent interaction between wet host sediments and intruding magma. The submarine eruption of 13 July appears to have been Friggered by a major lowering of the magma-column. The basalt scoria, having crystal-contents of more than 60%, is assumed to be derived from the cooled plastic margin of the shallow intrusive body. However, glassy scoria, which would indicate the interaction between hot fluidal magma and external water, was not observed. A scenario for the 1989 submarine eruption is as follows. When rapid subsidence of the hot interior of the intrusive magma occurred, reduced pressure caused the implosion of cooled plastic magma, adjacent pressurized, hot host material, and wet sediment. The mixing of these materials triggered the vigorous vapor explosions.     

A calculation of auroral hiss with improved models for geoplasma and magnetic field

Intensities of auroral hiss generated by the Cerenkov radiation process by electrons in the lower magnetosphere are calculated with respect to a realistic model of the Earth's magnetosphere. In this calculation, the magnetic field is expressed by the “Mead-Fairfield Model” (1975), and a static model of the iono-magnetospheric plasma distribution is constructed with data accumulated by recent satellites (Alouette-I, -II, ISIS-I, OGO-4, -6 and Explorer 22). The energy range of hiss producing electrons and the frequency range of the calculated VLF are 100–200 keV, and 2–200 kHz, respectively. Intensities with a maximum around 20 kHz, of the order of 10^?14 W/m²/Hz¹ at the ground seem to be ascribable to the incoherent Cerenkov emission from soft electrons with a differential energy spectrum E^?2 having an intensity of the order of 10⁸cm^?2/sec/sr/eV at 100 eV. It is shown that the frequency of the maximum hiss spectral density at geomagnetic latitudes 80° on the day-side and 70° on the night-side is around 20 kHz for the soft spectrum (～E^?2) electrons, which shifts toward lower frequency (～10 kHz) for a hard spectrum (～E^?1·2) electrons. The maximum hiss intensity produced by soft electrons is more than one order higher than that of hard electron produced hiss. The higher rate of hiss occurrence in the daytime side, particularly in the soft electron precipitation zone in the morning sector, and the lesser occurrence of auroral hiss in night-time sectors must be, therefore, due to the local time dependence of the energy spectra of precipiating electrons rather than the difference in the geomagnetic field and in the geoplasma distributions.     

M2 tidal currents near the continental shelf margin in the East China Sea

Time series of velocity and water temperature were measured at three stations on the continental shelf, on the shelf margin and on the slope off the northwest Tokunoshima in December 1980 to study influences of the slope on tides.Tidal currents with semidiurnal periods were dominant at the stations on the shelf and shelf margin. However, semidiurnal components in temperature fluctuations were dominant at the stations on the shelf margin and the slope. We estimated horizontal currents due to semidiurnal internal tides from the vertical distribution of water density and temperature, assuming that the temperature fluctuations were caused by the vertical displacement of water particles due to semidiurnal internal tides. The tidal ellipses at the station on the shelf and the phase relation of the tidal currents between the two stations on the shelf and shelf margin indicated that the M₂ surface tide on the shelf was a Sverdrup wave propagating to the northwest.Semidiurnal tidal currents on the slope were also caused by tides of surface and internal modes. Furthermore, the axis of the tidal ellipse was not perpendicular to the co-tidal line estimated by Ogura (1934) but rather parallel to the isobaths on the slope, which shows a striking effect of the bottom topography on the tidal currents.     

Phase velocity of semi-diurnal internal waves at Ocean Weather Station T

Phase velocity of semi-diurnal internal waves is determined from differences between phases at three stations which were situated to form a triangle in the vicinity of sta. T (29N, 135E). The wave phases are estimated from temporal variations in depths of isotherms obtained from serial measurements of vertical temperature profiles at these stations. The measurements were carried out in cooperative operation of two vessels, the R. V.Tansei-maru and theNojima, during the period from 30 July to 1 August 1965. Wave propagation with the speed of about 2 m/s in the direction from east to west is obtained as an average over several isotherms of temperature from 19C to 23C. The area of measurement is to the west of Izu-Mariana ridge and the distance from the ridge to the station is about 500 km, which would be about 5 times as large as the wave length of the internal waves under consideration, and so it is possible to suppose that the internal waves observed generated at the ridge and propagated to the area without being subjected to serious refraction, scattering, reflection and decay.     

Changes of water temperature near Ocean Weather Station T before and after passage of a typhoon

Temperature field in the vicinal area of station T (29N, 135E) before and after Typhoon 6411 in summer 1964 is analysed from measurements with BT. At a location 68 km distant from the path of the typhoon, temperature at each depth became lower in the upper layer from surface to 50 m deep and became higher in the lower layer from 50 m to 130 m deep in connection with passage of the typhoon than temperature at each depth in these layers before the typhoon, respectively. Heat loss in the upper layer and heat gain in the lower layer are estimated to be almost comparable in amount. Equivalence in the heat gain and loss suggests that temperature changes were caused by vertical mixing due to strong wind of the typhoon. At a location 164 km distant from the path of the typhoon, however, heat gain of the lower layer from 35 m to 250 m deep exceeded heat loss of the upper layer from surface to 35 m deep. In addition to vertical mixing, horizontal advection or some other processes should be taken into account in order to explain the temperature changes in the area a little distant from the typhoon path. For recovery of the temperature changes at these locations 8 days were needed. This recovery time is almost equal to those in the case of some other typhoons, about which the discussion was made in the previous paper (Maeda, 1965).     

Grain size,La/Yb and Th/Sc of settling particles in the western North Pacific: Evidence for lateral transport of small Asian loess

To understand the transport process of lithogenic particles in the ocean, we measured the grain size distributions of lithogenic particles and measured the opal, La, Yb, Th, and Sc concentrations of the settling particles collected from time-series sediment traps at Sta. KNOT (44°N, 155°E, water depth 5320 m) from June 2002 to May 2004. The annual mean lithogenic particle flux observed at the lower sediment trap (5100 m) was twice as high as that at the upper sediment trap (770 m). The contribution of Asian loess estimated by the La/Yb and the Th/Sc ratios in the lower layer was greater than that in the upper layer. The fluxes of small lithogenic particles with sizes of 3–4 μm at the lower layer (5 to 65 mg/m²/day) were approximately four times larger than that at the upper layer (0.6 to 27 mg/m²/day). These results indicate that the horizontal addition of small particle sizes of Asian loess is a main factor in the increase of lithogenic particles at the lower layer. The temporal variations in the small lithogenic particle flux at the lower layer had a positive correlation with those at the upper layer (r = 0.71). The small lithogenic particle fluxes showed a strong positive correlation with the opal fluxes (r = 0.9). We therefore conclude that the small lithogenic particles were laterally transported and scavenged by the formation of aggregates with opal.