黄渤海大风的客观相似预报

以MICAPS资料为基础，海平面气压资料为指标，设计了一种通过计算相似系数查找相似形势，制作黄、渤海地区24h大风的客观预报方法，并建立了包括109个大风历史个例资料库。试验结果表明，风速预报的平均误差在20％以下，满足大风预报业务的要求。相似法具有不需依赖国外资料及计算简单迅速的特点，它不仅是现在日常业务的一个补充，更重要的是，它是一种可以在战争等非常情况下使用的预报方法。     

乌拉苔草光合速率日变化及日同化量

乌拉苔草沼泽是长白山沟谷湿地的重要类型 ,对其光合速率研究的结果表明 ,乌拉苔草光合速率日变化呈单峰曲线 ,最高峰出现在 1 0时 ,最大值是 1 8.0 7μmol(CO2 ) / (m2 ·s) ;与其该群落伴生的修氏苔草光合速率日变化出现“午休”现象。影响光合速率最大的环境因素是光量子通量密度和叶温 ,呈极显著的正相关 ,其他因素亦多呈正相关 ,环境因子综合影响了乌拉苔草的光合日进程。乌拉苔草光合作用的日总同化量为 1 896 0 1 .2 μmol(CO2 ) /m2 ,是光合能力较强的一种沼泽植物     

应用多传感器目标跟踪融合技术实现滑坡多点监测数据综合信息的提取

目前的滑坡预报模型只能利用一个关键监测点的监测数据，而不能同时利用多个监测点的监测信息，即只能处理一维时间序列问题.为了解决这个技术难题，本文将滑坡视为一个机动目标，将对滑坡的监测视为对机动目标的跟踪，提出了利用多传感器目标跟踪融合技术来处理滑坡多个点的监测数据的方法，分析了其可行性，并用实例说明了本文提出的方法在实际应用中是有效的.     

Impacts of groundwater flow on the evolution of a thermokarst lake in the permafrost–dominated region on the Qinghai–Tibet plateau

As a result of global warming induced permafrost degradation in recent decades, thermokarst lakes in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau (QTP) have been regulating local hydrological and ecological processes. Simulations with coupled moisture–heat numerical models in the Beiluhe basin (located in the hinterland of permafrost regions on the QTP) have provided insights into the interaction between groundwater flow and the freeze–thaw process. A total of 30 modified SUTRA scenarios were established to examine the effects of hydrodynamic forces, permeability, and climate on thermokarst lakes. The results indicate that the hydrodynamic condition variables regulate the permafrost degradation around the lakes. In case groundwater recharges to the lake, a low–temperature groundwater flow stimulates the expansion of the surrounding thawing regions through thermal convection. The thawing rate of the permafrost underlying the lake intensifies when groundwater is discharged from the lake. Under different permeability conditions, spatiotemporal variations in the active layer thickness significantly influence the occurrence of an open talik at the lake bottom. A warmer and wetter climate will inevitably lead to a sharp decrease in the upper limit of the surrounding permafrost, with a continual decrease in the duration of open talik events. Overall, our results underscore that comprehensive consideration of the relevant hydrologic processes is critical for improving the understanding of environmental and ecological changes in cold environments.     

表面多次波衰减技术在渤海海峡应用效果

浅水地震勘探对于了解近海底地质构造具有重要意义,目前已被广泛用于油气开发、近岸工程等领域。表面多次波的存在干扰了有效波信息,影响了资料品质,造成解释假象,如何有效地压制多次波,已成为浅水地震勘探中的关键问题。表面多次波衰减方法(SRME)是一种去除海面相关多次波效果较好的技术方法,但是,一般认为SRME技术并不适合于浅水区域。分析了SRME去除多次波的基本原理,并将其应用于海洋高分辨率浅水区域多次波的去除。实际处理效果表明,使用SRME技术处理后的叠加剖面多次波去除效果明显,剖面基底清楚,断面清晰。通过对SRME技术应用于浅水区域的探讨,证实了SRME技术在海洋高分辨率地震勘探浅水区域应用效果较好。     

西藏拿若铜(金)矿床隐爆角砾岩流体包裹体研究

隐爆角砾岩是西藏拿若矿床的重要组成部分,赋存厚大的铜矿体。笔者将隐爆角砾岩中流体分成两个主要期次,并对这两期流体开展包裹体研究。通过包裹体岩相学和显微测温认为:角砾中的石英(早期)包裹体形状均匀呈椭圆形,大小主要在2~5μm;胶结物中石英(晚期)包裹体形状可见椭圆状、长条状和近方形,大小主要在2~7μm。早期流体的包裹体可分为两个阶段,均一温度分别为早阶段280~368℃和晚阶段208~305℃,盐度分布为(4.65~12.73)%Na Cleq。晚期流体的包裹体同样可分为两个阶段,其均一温度分别为早阶段309~588℃和晚阶段232~335℃,盐度变化为(3.55~12.51)%Na Cleq,两个阶段的流体分别属于高温、中低盐度和中高温、中低盐度流体。L-V型包裹体激光拉曼分析显示:包裹体中气泡成分主要为气态H2O和少量CO2。拿若矿床至少经历两次隐爆作用,由晚期沸腾热液引起,并未成矿。成矿作用发生于隐爆角砾岩形成之后。     

基于层区带刻度区地质特点的资源评价方法适用性分析

针对新型的层区带刻度区进行资源评价方法的适应性研究是长庆四次资评一项重要内容。采用油藏规模序列法、油藏过程模型法、容积法和饱和探井法4种资源评价方法,对具不同成藏特点的刻度区进行了深入的方法适用性分析和参数研究。研究结果表明,过程类资源评价方法对低渗透、特低渗透连续性岩性油藏,在以储量提交单元作为统计单元进行油藏发现序列与规模序列模拟时,计算参数的合理性与计算结果认知度很难达到统一。而勘探程度类资源评价方法,在深入的地质分析基础上,选择合理适宜的关键参数,是可以求得较为可信的地质资源量。当然,评价者对评价对象的认识程度和对评价方法的掌握程度也影响着资源评价的结果。     

Using Geomechanical Method to Predict Tectonic Fractures in Low-Permeability Sandstone Reservoirs

Understanding and interpreting the timing, location, orientation, and intensity of natural fractures within a geological structure are commonly important to both exploration and production planning activities of low-porosity and low-permeability carbonate reservoirs. In this study, we explore the application of comprehensive geomechanical methods to quantitatively characterize the fracture parameters based on Strain Energy Density Theory, such as linear fracture density and volume fracture density. This study approach is based on the idea that energy generated by tectonic stress on brittle sandstone,which can be distinguished fracture surface energy, friction energy dissipation and residual strain energy and natural fractures can be interpreted or inferred from geomechanical-model-derived strains. For this analysis, we model an extension and compression compound fault block developed in a mechanically stratified sandstone and shale sequence because mechanics experimental data and drilling data exist that can be directly compared with model results.However, the results show that the approach and our study conclusion are independent of the specified structural geometry, which can correlate fracture parameters in different stages with different tectonic activities, and finally build and visualize fracture networks in sandstone. The presence or absence of filling minerals in fractures is shown to strongly control the destruction and transformation of low-permeability sandstone, and this control possesses crucial implications for interpreting fracture aperture and reservoir flow simulation.     

仿生高效切削齿试验研究

在仿生高效耐磨理论的指导下,以鼹鼠爪趾为仿生原型,引入了其经长期进化而具有的高效、耐磨的特性。选用CVD多晶金刚石为切削齿的切削单元,采用真空热压烧结工艺制备仿生高效切削齿,并将其与常规PDC齿、仿生PDC齿的耐磨性和切削效率进行对比试验,结果显示：仿生高效切削齿的耐磨性较常规PDC齿提高23%;切削效率较常规PDC齿提高1.49倍,较仿生PDC齿提高48%。初步证明了仿生高效切削齿工艺的可行性,为下一步高效切削钻头的研究奠定了坚实的基础。