Discussion of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

The opinion paper by Kreibich et al. provides interesting insights into the interplay between floods and droughts, which are often ignored. The structure of the paper is original and the findings of high interest. It may however be difficult to obtain the required data to pursue the research agenda in actual catchments. This discussion paper suggests various ways in which the linkages between floods and droughts can be explored even if recorded data of sufficient detail is not available.     

Preliminary Mapping and Characterisation of Soils in the Pirin Mountains （Bulgaria）

Soil types, humus types and vegetation as well as their hypsometric variation were analysed in terms of sequences in the northern part of the high mountains of the Pirin National Park at altitudes between looo and 2400 m a.s.1. The study area is characterised by a large variety of natural parameters like petrology （mainly marble and granite）, morphology （different slope deposits, exposition） and the orographic climate gradient. Statistical analyses using these parameters provided a basis for the soil group classification of the sites. Based on a Digital Terrain Model （DTM） and a geological map of the Pirin National Park, the results of these statistical analyses were used to generate a ＂map of potential soil groups＂ （regionalisation using GIS）. Six potential soil groups could be determined. The resulting map exhibits a confidence level of 68 % on 74.4 % of the covered area. Rendzic Leptosols, in combination with Folic Histosols and Histi-lithic Leptosols occur in the alpine and subalpine regions on calcareous substrates. With decreasing altitude they are replaced by a mosaic of Rendzic Leptosols, Phaeozems and an increasing occurrence of Cambic Umbrisols. Umbrisols found on silicatic substrates in the alpine region are replaced by Cambic Umbrisols with decreasing altitude as well. Hence, pedogenesis is characterised by increasing browning and depth of the soil profiles with decreasing altitude. The pH-level is slightly acidic to neutral in lower zones and on calcareous rocky bases. Acidification increases in the subalpine zone. Soil pH decreases down to 4 on silicate subtrates. Typical humic values in mineral topsoils are 10 to 12 %, and in organic layers of the soils above 2000 m a.s.1, they are even more. The C：N ratio closely ranges around 20 （median）.     

Bulk chemical compositions of Al-rich objects from Rumuruti (R) chondrites: Implications for their origin

R chondrites are a distinct group of chondritic meteorites with unique mineralogical and chemical compositions. They contain various types of Al-rich objects [Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), Al-rich chondrules and fragments], whose mineralogical compositions and classifications were previously determined by Rout and Bischoff (2008). Here, we report on the bulk compositions of 126 such Al-rich objects determined by broad-beam electron probe microanalysis.Most of the CAIs, except a few, are significantly altered by complex nebular and/or parent body processes and the determination of their pristine composition is difficult. We found that the simple concentric spinel-rich inclusions have high Al₂O₃ (21–72 wt%) correlated with their high modal spinel. The subgroup of simple concentric spinel-rich CAIs have a high Al₂O₃ (21–57 wt%) and also sometimes high FeO (up to 36 wt%), due to a high hercynitic component in the spinel. One simple concentric spinel- and hibonite-rich CAI H030/L, identified as a HAL-type CAI by isotopic studies reported elsewhere, has a highly refractory composition (Al₂O₃～72 wt%). Most of the simple concentric spinel- and fassaite-rich CAIs have consistently high CaO (～2.5–17 wt%) compared to other simple concentric spinel-rich inclusions group, where only some inclusions have high CaO (up to 15 wt%). Simple concentric spinel- and Na,Al-alteration product-rich CAIs are heavily altered and have high Na₂O (up to ～12.5 wt%).The three analyzed fassaite-rich spherules have high CaO and Al₂O₃, and complex spinel- and fassaite-rich CAIs have high CaO (up to 23 wt%) and SiO₂ (up to 41 wt%). Most of the complex spinel- and plagioclase-rich CAIs are altered and contain high amounts of secondary oligoclase. However, a few are less affected by secondary alteration and these are characterized by relatively high CaO (up to 24 wt%) and Al₂O₃ (18–33 wt%); complex spinel and Na,Al-alteration product-rich CAIs are similar to the concentric spinel- and Na,Al-alteration product-rich CAIs. Due to Fe- and alkali-metasomatism, the vast majority of the inclusions in this subgroup were heavily altered, either in a nebular or parent body environment. As a result of this alteration, they contain high FeO and Na₂O+K₂O+Cl.Almost all inclusions have a Ca/Al-ratio below the solar ratio. This suggests that significant Ca/Al fractionation occurred during the formation of most CAIs, most probably due to disequilibrium condensation of spinel prior to melilite. However, a distillation process cannot be ruled out for some CAIs in producing the spinel enrichment. Some porous and fine grained CAIs may have been produced by agglomeration of refractory dust rich in spinel and fassaite. The HAL-type CAI, H030/L, most likely formed by distillation, similar to most of the HAL-type inclusions. Phase equilibrium analysis, in the CMAS system, shows that the fassaite-bearing spherules most likely formed by metastable crystallization and disequilibrium processes. Al-rich chondrules are characterized by >10 wt% Al₂O₃, and most of these also have high FeO and Na₂O. Considering their bulk compositions, their precursors seem to have been a mixture of a ferromagnesian chondrule component rich in olivine and an anorthite–spinel–pyroxene–nepheline-rich CAI component. The mineral assemblages of some of the less altered Al-rich chondrules conform to those predicted by phase equilibrium studies.     

Hydrological modelling in the anthroposphere: predicting local runoff in a heavily modified high-alpine catchment

Hydrological models within inflow forecasting systems for high-alpine hydropower reservoirs can provide valuable information as part of a decision support system for the improvement of hydropower production or flood retention. The information, especially concerning runoff, is however rarely available for the calibration of the hydrological models used. Therefore, a method is presented to derive local runoff from secondary information for the calibration of the model parameters of the rainfallrunoff model COSERO. Changes in water levels in reservoirs, reservoir outflows, discharge measurements at water intakes and in transport lines are thereby used to derive the local, “natural” flow for a given sub-catchment. The proposed method is applied within a research study for the ÖBB Infrastructure Railsystem division in the Stubache catchment in the central Austrian Alps. Here, the ÖBB operates the hydropower scheme “Kraftwerksgruppe Stubachtal”, which consists of 7 reservoirs and 4 hydropower stations. The hydrological model has been set up considering this human influences and the high natural heterogeneity in topography and land cover, including glaciers. Overall, the hydrological model performs mostly well for the catchment with highest NSE values of 0.78 for the calibration and 0.79 for the validation period, also considering the use of homogeneous parameter fields and the uncertainty of the derived local discharge values. The derived runoff data proved to be useful information for the model calibration. Further analysis, examining the water balance and its components as well as snow cover, showed satisfactory simulation results. In conclusion, a unique runoff dataset for a small scale high-alpine catchment has been created to establish a hydrological flow prediction model which in a further step can be used for improved and sustainable hydropower management.     

Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.     

Electrical anisotropy and conductivity distribution functions of fractal random networks and of the crust: the scale effect of connectivity

All explanations of the high-conductivity layers (HCL) found by magnetotellurics in the middle or lower crust incorporate a mixture of a low-conductivity rock matrix and a highly conductive phase, for example graphite or saline fluids. In most cases the bulk conductivity of the mixture does not depend on the conductivity of the rock matrix but rather (1) on the amount of high-conductivity material and, in particular, (2) on its geometry. The latter is quantitatively described by the parameter 'electrical connectivity'. Decomposition of the observed bulk conductivity of the mixture into these two parameters results in an ill-posed problem. Even if anisotropy occurs in the HCL, three output parameters (highly conductive phase fraction, connectivity with respect to the X direction, connectivity with respect to the Y direction) have to be estimated from the two bulk conductivities of the anisotropic HCL. The additional information required for solving this problem is provided if instead of single-site data the conductivities from many field sites are evaluated: a sample distribution of the conductivity can then be obtained. Ensembles of random networks are used to create theoretical distribution functions which match the empirical distribution functions to some extent. The use of random resistor networks is discussed in the context of other established techniques for the treatment of two-phase systems, such as percolation theory and the renormalization group approach. Models of embedded networks explain the discrepancy between 'small' anisotropy (2-3) on the laboratory scale and large anisotropy (10-100) found in electromagnetic field surveys encompassing volumes of several cubic kilometres. Strong anisotropy can indicate low electrical connectivity, and a possible explanation is that a network stays close to the percolation threshold.