The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.     

Vertical displacement rates in the Upper Rhine Graben area derived from precise leveling

The recent vertical displacement field of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) located in the tri-national region between Germany, France and Switzerland is investigated using repeatedly measured leveling data. We estimate vertical displacement rates at leveling benchmarks by applying a kinematic network adjustment on more than 40,000 height differences measured by German, French and Swiss surveying agencies. Focusing on an optimal solution for the adjusted rates in the URG area also historical data (measured before 1900) are used, significantly increasing the time span of available measurements and the number of transnational connections between the three countries. To account for inhomogeneities apparent in the database, we apply an iterative variance component estimation within the adjustment procedure, particularly revealing more realistic information on the accuracy of the estimated rates. A special focus within our analysis is put on the statistical testing of gross errors in the observations and model-related errors at benchmarks with non-linear movement. As some of the estimated vertical rates behave significantly different compared to the vertical rates of adjacent benchmarks, a filtering of outliers is applied after the adjustment procedure. The resulting map of linear height changes in an area of 280 km in N–S and 230 km in E–W direction provides detailed insight into the recent vertical displacements of the URG and neighboring regions. In the German part of the study area, it was possible for the first time to consistently constrain an average subsidence rate of 0.5 mm/a ( \(\pm \) 0.2 mm/a) of the Graben interior w.r.t. the Black Forest. In addition to the tectonic displacements, some man-induced surface movements, e.g., caused by oil and groundwater extraction, are observed and discussed.     

Structural controls on groundwater flow in a fractured bedrock aquifer underlying an agricultural region of northwestern New Brunswick,Canada

A hydrogeological study was conducted in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada, to improve the predictability of fracture-dominated groundwater flow within folded bedrock composed of fine-grained turbidites. Borehole televiewer logging and outcrop mapping, integrated with hydraulic packer tests revealed enhanced hydraulic conductivity associated with northeasterly striking bedding-plane fractures formed during folding and flexural slip. These fractures impart azimuthal anisotropy to the aquifer because of moderately dipping fold limbs. High-angle fractures form a well-developed non-stratabound network, comprising two open fracture sets striking NNE parallel to the current direction of principal stress, and WNW parallel to the direction of principal stress that dominated during the Acadian orogeny. The subset of fractures showing significant oxidation, deemed most important to the groundwater flow system, is dominated by bedding-plane and high-angle fractures striking near-parallel to the maximum principal stress direction, resulting in extensional opening and enhanced hydraulic conductivities. An equivalent porous media model, incorporating anisotropy and varying hydraulic conductivity with depth, indicates that horizontal flow dominates the aquifer with relatively minor exchange between different model layers. These findings have implications for understanding flow directions in the Black Brook Watershed and elsewhere in the Matapédia Basin where fractures formed under similar stress conditions.     

Morphometric comparisons between automated and manual karst depression inventories in Apalachicola National Forest,Florida, and Mammoth Cave National Park,Kentucky, USA

Karst depression catalogs are critical to assessing the hydrology and geohazards of an area; yet, the delineation of these features within a landscape can be a difficult, time-consuming and subjective task. This study evaluates the efficacy of karst depression inventorying using an automated fill-difference method operating on high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models (DEMs). The resulting catalog is compared with existing karst depression inventories for two low-development areas of the USA, Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA) and Apalachicola National Forest (ANF), where karst depressions have been mapped previously using a manual closed-contour approach. The automated fill method captures 93 and 85 % of these previously mapped karst depressions at MACA and ANF, respectively. Field observations and topographic analysis suggest that the omitted features were likely misclassified within the existing catalogs. The automated routine returns 797 and 3377 additional topographic depressions, at MACA and ANF, respectively, which are not included in the existing catalogs. While the geology of ANF is mostly homogenous Quaternary deposits, the newly identified, typically smaller-scale depressions found within MACA tend to be disproportionally located in non-carbonate-dominated formations, where the development of karst may be restricted by geologic heterogeneity. Within both areas, the size distributions of the two inventories are statistically identical for features larger than ~10³ m² in area or ~3 m in depth. For individual depressions captured by both methods at MACA, the automated fill-difference routine tends to return a slightly larger estimate of depression size and aggregate small depressions into larger ones. Conversely, at ANF, some low-relief depressions may be disaggregated by the fill-difference technique, with a trend toward smaller estimated depression areas when the automated method is employed. The automated fill-difference method, operating on high-resolution lidar-derived DEMs, can reproduce and expand the existing inventories of karst depressions, while minimizing false detections that may be inherent within pre-existing catalogs.     

Sea surface wind stress and drag coefficients: The hexos results

Turbulent fluxes have been measured in the atmospheric surface layer from a boom extending upwind from the Dutch offshore research platform Meetpost Noordwijk (MPN) during HEXMAX (Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment) in October–November, 1986. We started out to study eddy flux of water vapour, but discrepancies among simultaneous measurements made with three different anemometers led us to develop methods to correct eddy correlation measurements of wind stress for flow distortion by nearby objects. We then found excellent agreement among the corrected wind stress data sets from the three anemometers on the MPN boom and with eddy correlation measurements from a mast on a tripod. Inertial-dissipation techniques gave reliable estimates of wind stress from turbulence spectra, both at MPN and at a nearby ship. The data cover a range of wave ages and the results yield new insights into the variation of sea surface wind stress with sea state; two alternative formulas are given for the nondimensional surface roughness as a function of wave age.