Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995     

Devonian of the isle of Rügen

Summary In the Rügen area of northern Germany, Old Red Sandstones, ranging from Late Emsian to Givetian in age, unconformably overlie deformed Ordovician strata. The Middle Devonian Old Red passes conformably up into a Late Devonian carbonate facies and then into the Lower Carboniferous, apparently without a break.     

Polymetamorphose und Deckenbau der Strand-Halbinsel/SW-Norwegen

Zusammenfassung Die Metamorphite der Halbinsel Strand / SW-Norwegen gehören zu einem Deckensystem präkambrischer Gesteine, das während der kaledonischen Orogenese von NNW her auf den Baltischen Schild geschoben worden ist (Sigmond Kildal 1978). Eine hangende Deckeneinheit umfa\t Metagranite, Melagabbroide und Gneise. Ihr granulitfazieller Mineralbestand (Metamorphosealter 1,5 Milliarden Jahre) wurde wahrscheinlich vor 1,18 Milliarden Jahren grünschieferfaziell retrograd überprägt. Die Decke ist nur noch in kleinen Erosionsinseln vorhanden. Eine liegende Dekkeneinheit besteht aus metasedimentären Gesteinen. Sie weist Mineralbestände der höheren Amphibolitfazies auf, die ebenfalls grünschieferfaziell überprägt wurden. Die Al^VI-Gehalte der bei beiden metamorphen Prozessen gebildeten Amphibole deuten bei Anwendung eines Diagramms vonRaase (1974) an, da\ die retrograde Metamorphose hier bei höheren Drücken ablief als die ältere Metamorphose. Ein Gesamtgesteinsalter von 1,16 Milliarden Jahren scheint für diese grünschieferfazielle Metamorphose das gleiche orogene Ereignis anzuzeigen wie für die hangende Einheit. Produkt der schwachen kaledonischen Metamorphose (400 Millionen Jahre) ist Stilpnomelan, der auch im Grundgebirge des Baltischen Schildes auftritt.

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The Strand Peninsula, Stavanger district, Southwestern Norway, has become well known, when V. M.Goldschmidt (1920) published his hypothesis of regional metasomatism. All rocks of the Strand area were assumed to be situated in autochthonous position. The main point ofGoldschmidt's hypothesis was progarde metamorphism of argillaceous sediments and their transformation to albite schists and plagioclase gneisses by metasomatic solutions given off from intruded trondhjemitic magmas.However, in contrast toGoldschmidt's ideas, the granitoid sill of the Ormakam-Moldhesten area, Strand Peninsula, and its wall rocks, which played an important role inGoldschmidt's discussion, are now found to be parts of a polymetamorphous thrust unit.Granulite facies assemblages, mainly consisting of orthopyroxene +clinopyroxene+plagioclase+hastingsite±orthoclase and quartz, have been partially replaced by lowgrade assemblages. Probably, the high-grade metamorphism has an age of about 1.5 Ga (Andresen &Heier 1975) whereas the age of the greenschist facies event may be conform to an orogenic cycle at about 1.15 Ga (Sigmond Kildal 1978).A lower nappe, covering the Strand Peninsula for its most parts, was subject of a petrologic re-examination using the microscope and the microprobe analyser. Its contacts with the hanging nappe as well as those with the underlying gneissic basement are characterized by thrust planes and horizons of phyllonites and cataclasites inside of the nappe and by local brecciation in the uppermost zones of the basement.The rocks of the lower nappe have been formed a long with the upper amphibolite facies as indicated by the following mineral assemblage: andesine + hastingsite and Mg-hornblende + quartz +biotite.Obviously, an inverse order of temperature regimes is recognizable in the allochthonous units. Maximum temperature of the upper nappe reached 800C (Müller &Herbert 1984) whereas T_max of the lower nappe did not exceed 750C.Using a diagram ofRaase (1974) the Al^VI-contents of the primary hastingsitic hornblendes of the lower nappe rocks indicate pressures which range distinctly below 5 kbars, whereas the secondary pargasitic hornblendes were formed at pressures of about 5 kbars. Probably the thrusting happened before the formation of secondary hornblendes took place. The load pressure in the lower nappe (< 5 kbars) was distinctly increased when the upper nappe was thrusted upon the lower one. Consequently the Al^VI-contents of secondary hornblendes indicate increased pressure ( 5 kbars).In the gneisses of the lower nappe late fractures were filled by stilpnomelane, chlorite and quartz. Very probably this depends on thrust movements during the Caledonian orogeny.Verschure et al. (1980) found a similar stilpnomelane formation in adjacent terrains of the basement and proposed a weak Caledonian metamorphism of about 400 my.

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Résumé Les roches métamorphiques de la presqu'Île de Strand (sud-ouest de la Norvège) appartiennent à un empilement de nappes formées de roches pré-cambriennes et charriées vers le SSE sur le bouclier baltique au cours de l'orogenèse calédonienne (Sigmond Kildal 1978).Une nappe supérieure comprend des métagranites, des mélagabbroÏdes et des gneiss. Leurs paragenèses, du facies des granulites (âge du métamorphisme: 1,5 Ga) ont été rétromorphosées dans le facies des schistes verts il y a probablement 1,18 Ga. Cette nappe ne subsiste qu'en petits fragments épargnés par l'érosion.Une nappe inférieure est composée de roches métasédimentaires. Ces roches présentent des paragenèses du faciès supérieur des amphibolites, également rétromorphosées dans le facies des schistes verts. L'application du diagramme de Raase (1974) aux teneurs en Al^VI des amphiboles formées lors des deux processus métamorphiques indique que la rétromorphose s'est déroulée à une pression supérieure à celle du métamorphisme ancien. Un âge de 1,16 Ga sur roche totale semble indiquer que le mÊme processus orogénique a servi de cadre à la rétromorphose en facies des schistes verts dans les deux nappes.Du stilpnomélane, présent tant dans la nappe inférieure que dans le bouclier baltique autochtone, témoigne d'un métamorphisme calédonien (400 Ma) de faible degré.

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Strand ( ) , NNW (Sigmond KILDAL, 1978). , . - 1,5 , 118 , . . . , . Al^VI , , RAASE (1974) , , . 1,6 , , , . (400 ) , .

     

Correlation of the Quaternary terrace sequence in the Lower Rhine valley and northern Alpine foothills of central Europe

Thirteen glacial terraces are known from the western part of the northern Alpine foothills between the Lech and Iller Rivers. In the Lower Rhine region of West Germany, a similar number of terraces are capped by interglacial floodloams and soils. Whereas the environment during individual interglaciations did not differ substantially, the glaciations were progressively more severe. The Main Terrace system of the Rhine may be an exception. The duration of the Quaternary, starting at the base of Praetiglian, is estimated at approximately 2 million yr by paleomagnetic dating. The major cold-warm climatic cycles of the earliest Pleistocene lasted approximately 100,000 yr, the same as those of the Brunhes Chron. The intervening Main Terrace system has not yet been climatically subdivided. Correlation with the Netherlands is possible because of an abundance of paleobotanic and paleomagnetic evidence. In the Alpine foothills, stratigraphically useful indicators of warm climates are missing, but analogies in terrace development permit comparison with the Lower Rhine and Danube. The terrace sequence in the Alpine foothills is incomplete, as are those along most of the other rivers in Europe. Some of the older terraces may have been eroded.     

A friction damped base isolation system with fail-safe characteristics

An experimental study of a Coulomb friction damped aseismic base isolation system with fail-safe characteristics is described in this paper. The base isolation system utilized commercially made natural rubber bearings and a skid system which comes into operation at preset-levels of relative horizontal displacement between the structure and the foundation. The fail-safe skid provides hysteretic damping and prevents failure of the isolation system in the event of displacements larger than those assumed in the original design. The isolation system can be designed for an earthquake which can be reasonably expected within the lifetime of the structure; in the event of an earthquake of unanticipated intensity the failsafe system will prevent collapse of the structure. The testing of the system involved an 80,000lb model, approximately 1/3 scale to a real structure mounted on the 20′ × 20′ shaking table at EERC and subject to a variety of earthquake inputs. The results show that the hysteretic effect of the fail-safe system does not greatly increase the accelerations experienced by the structure but considerably reduces the relative displacements at the isolation bearings. The action of the fail-safe system was tested by using an earthquake input that produced a resonant response in the isolated mode of the model. The stability limit of the isolation system was exceeded and the bearings failed but complete failure of the isolation system and thus collapse of the model was prevented by the fail-safe system. The implementation of the system in full scale structures poses no technical or construction problems. An equivalent linearization technique was developed for this system for design purposes using response spectra. The accuracy of this approach was verified by comparison with the experimental results.     

WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE

The advantages and disadvantages of measuring ocean wave heights in the surf zone by using terrestrial photogrammetry are outlined. Difficulties arising from a lack of control points can be overcome by using the apparent horizon to provide camera orientations about two axes, provided that the apparent horizon is the sea surface and that an unconventional orientation of the camera axis system is adopted. Following practical tests and error simulation studies, height differences were determined for 12 points in the breaking wave zone off a Newcastle (New South Wales) beach. It is hoped that the method can be developed as a convenient means of collecting wave data.     

Human response to environmental change in the perspective of future, global climate

Human response to severe environmental stress is conceived and implemented by individuals, but must be approved by the group. These decisions are made with respect to perceived circumstances. Societies are enmeshed within adaptive systems that provide a matrix of opportunities and constraints for a wide range of potential behavioral variability. Such systems repeatedly readjust to short-term crises, e.g., droughts, but persistent and severe environmental stress may require substantial revision of adaptive strategies. The Sahel drought of 1968–1973 is an example of a brief but severe crisis, recurring along the Saharan margins perhaps once every 30 years. Closer inspection shows links between intensified intertribal warfare and ecological stress in the lower Omo Valley. The decline of the Egyptian New Kingdom during the 12th century B.C., in response to economic stagnation, sociopolitical instability, dynastic weakness, foreign pressures, and poor Nile floods over 50–70 years, represents a more complex and fundamental modification, with systemic simplification lasting 450 years. Such insights can be applied to future, global climatic change due to increasing atmospheric CO₂. Simulation and paleoclimatic experience suggest a drier climate for the North American and Soviet breadbaskets, to threaten world food supplies at a time of maximum demographic pressures and declining resources. Public perception and remedial planning should receive the attention of Quaternary scientists, in order to preempt an involuntary, global, systemic simplification.     

Towards evaluating cloud response to climate change using clustering technique identification of cloud regimes

Most of the discrepancies in the climate sensitivity of general circulation models (GCMs) are believed to be due to differences in cloud radiative feedback. Analysis of cloud response to climate change in different ‘regimes’ may offer a more detailed understanding of how the cloud response differs between GCMs. In which case, evaluation of simulated cloud regimes against observations in terms of both their cloud properties and frequency of occurrence will assist in assessing confidence in the cloud response to climate change in a particular GCM. In this study, we use a clustering technique on International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and on ISCCP-like diagnostics from two versions of the Hadley Centre GCM to identify cloud regimes over four different geographical regions. The two versions of the model are evaluated against observational data and their cloud response to climate change compared within the cloud regime framework. It is found that cloud clusters produced by the more recent GCM, HadSM4, compare more favourably with observations than HadSM3. In response to climate change, although the net cloud response over particular regions is often different in the two models, in several instances the same basic processes may be seen to be operating. Overall, both changes in the frequency of occurrence of cloud regimes and changes in the properties (optical depth and cloud top height) of the cloud regimes contribute to the cloud response to climate change.