An Upper Limit on Sunspot Activity During the Maunder Minimum

We have estimated the upper and lower limits of sunspot activity, in terms of active day fraction during the Maunder minimum (1645–1710), using raw information on individual daily observations (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998). Establishing the relation between the sunspot activity and active day fraction after 1850, we evaluate the upper limit of annual group sunspot number during the deep Maunder minimum (1645–1700) which does not exceed 4. The earlier finding of a dominant 22-year periodicity during the Maunder minimum is verified and shown to be robust. Also we confirm that the start of the Maunder minimum was very abrupt.     

Search for variable sources using data of “Cold” surveys

We search for variable sources, using the data of the surveys conducted on the RATAN-600 radio telescope in 1980–1994 at 3.94 GHz. To test the radio sources of the RCR (RATAN Cold Refined) catalog for variability, we estimated the long-term variability indices V of the studied objects, their relative variability amplitudes V _χ , and the χ ² probabilities p. Out of about two hundred considered sources, 41 proved to have positive long-term variability indices, suggesting that these sources may be variable. Fifteen objects can be considered to be reliably variable according to the χ ² criterion p > 0.98, three of these sources have χ ² probabilities p ≥ 0.999. The corresponding probabilities for six sources lie in the 0.95 < p < 0.98 interval, and those of the remaining 20 objects in the 0.73 ≤ p < 0.95 interval. Twenty four of 41 objects are variable or possibly variable in the optical range, and five objects are known variable radio sources. We construct the light curves and spectra for the sources with positive long-term variability indices.     

Bayesian improver of a distribution

 An estimate of a distribution obtained from a sample by any method of classical statistics may be erroneous when the sample is not representative of the population. A subjective distribution elicited from an expert may be miscalibrated when information is scanty and experience limited. The Bayesian Improver of a Distribution (BID) exploits a coherence principle and improves, in the ex ante sense, an initial estimate of a continuous distribution by using (i) the known distribution of a related variate and (ii) information about the dependence structure between the two variates. The theory of BID is developed into an applied (ABID) procedure. The ABID estimator is applicable to any continuous, monotone likelihood ratio dependent variates with arbitrary, strictly increasing marginal distributions, parametric or nonparametric; it is analytic in form and easy to implement via statistical or judgmental methods; it converges to the true distribution, provided the initial estimator does, as the sample size n→∞; it outperforms the initial estimator in the expected Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance for all n; and it offers the greatest gains when n is small – precisely when improved estimates are needed most.     

Comparison of cell- and vertex-centered discretization methods for flow in a two-dimensional discrete-fracture–matrix system

Simulations of flow for a discrete-fracture model in fractured porous rocks have gradually become more practical, as a consequence of increased computer power and improved simulation and characterization techniques. Discrete-fracture models can be formulated in a lower-dimensional framework, where the fractures are modeled in a lower dimension than the matrix, or in an equi-dimensional form, where the fractures and the matrix have the same dimension.     

Chemical analysis of natural objects by ion chromatographic method in combination with a priori calculations using IONCHROM software

This paper briefly describes original developments in the theoretical and practical ion chromatography. It is demonstrated that new methods may be applied for the highly-selective analysis of complex natural objects. The determination of different species of sulfur and other ions in the condensates of fumarolic gases is considered in detail as an example.