On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.     

Measuring run-up on a natural beach

Field experiments have been performed to evaluate and intercompare two techniques for measuring run-up on natural beaches, resistance wires and films. Simultaneous deployment of wire sensors shows a low error (< 5%) in electronics gain, but a strong sensitivity to the elevation of the wires above the beach face. On a low slope (β ～ 0.02) beach, with incident wind waves of moderate height (H ～ 1 m), differences of only a few cm in the wire elevation cause variance differences as large as 25%, in otherwise identical sensors. Replicate digitizations of the same run-up film show variance differences as large as 20%, with an average deviation from the mean variance of 8%.Use of the film and resistance wire sensors on the same run-up field showed small differences in the mean swash elevation (i.e., set-up), but an 83% difference in swash variance. Much further work is needed to determine the dependence of sensor differences on beach slope, porosity, camera elevation and other factors.     

Winter-spring phytoplankton blooms in Dabob Bay, Washington

Scientific investigations in Dabob Bay, Washington State, USA, have been extensive since the early 1960s, but phytoplankton blooms have been studied mostly with regard to chlorophyll concentrations and little is known about the phytoplankton species themselves. Here we provide information on the species present, their abundances during blooms, their contribution to organic carbon concentrations and the ability of some phytoplankton species to produce toxic aldehydes that may impact metazoan grazers.Multiple blooms of phytoplankton, dominated by diatoms, occurred in the late winter-early spring period, with depth-integrated chlorophyll levels ranging from <20 to 230 mg m⁻² and peaks in February and April. The major bloom species included Skeletonema costatum, Thalassiosira spp. and Chaetoceros spp; Phaeocystis cf. pouchetii occurred in 2002 and 2004. Other taxa or groups of organisms that were sometimes abundant included unidentified small flagellates <10 μm in size and unidentified heterotrophic dinoflagellates. Large diatoms usually comprised most of the cell carbon, but a large, heterotrophic dinoflagellate, identified only as Gyrodinium “tear” because of its shape, was a major contributor to the microplankton carbon when present even in small numbers. Five Thalassiosira species and S. costatum were found to produce polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUA) that are known to affect copepod reproduction and hatching success. Our findings are similar to the few previous studies in the last four decades that included phytoplankton species and suggest long-term similarities and relative stability in the phytoplankton species present and their timing in Dabob Bay.     

Cloning of the major 3-MC inducible phase I and phase II detoxification enzymes of plaice liver

cDNA's coding for cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1), phenol UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UDPGT) and glutathione S-transferase (GST-A) were cloned and sequenced from an expression library prepared from the liver of a 3-methylcholanthrene (3-MC) induced plaice. Plaice CYP1A1 and Phenol UDPGT display a high degree of structural conservation with homologous mammalian isoforms and their mRNAs were shown to be highly induced in liver after 3-MC treatment of fish. Expression of plaice GST-A, which displays closer homology to GSTs from plants and invertebrates than those of mammals, is repressed after 3-MC treatment.     

Documenting hurricane impacts on coral reefs using two-dimensional video-mosaic technology

Four hurricanes impacted the reefs of Florida in 2005. In this study, we evaluate the combined impacts of hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma on a population of Acropora palmata using a newly developed video‐mosaic methodology that provides a high‐resolution, spatially accurate landscape view of the reef benthos. Storm damage to A. palmata was surprisingly limited; only 2 out of 19 colonies were removed from the study plot at Molasses Reef. The net tissue losses for those colonies that remained were only 10% and mean diameter of colonies decreased slightly from 88.4 to 79.6 cm. In contrast, the damage to the reef framework was more severe, and a large section (6 m in diameter) was dislodged, overturned, and transported to the bottom of the reef spur. The data presented here show that two‐dimensional video‐mosaic technology is well‐suited to assess the impacts of physical disturbance on coral reefs and can be used to complement existing survey methodologies.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.