The danger of overvaluing methane’s influence on future climate change

Minimizing the future impacts of climate change requires reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) load in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions include many types of GHG’s as well as particulates such as black carbon and sulfate aerosols, each of which has a different effect on the atmosphere, and a different atmospheric lifetime. Several recent studies have advocated for the importance of short timescales when comparing the climate impact of different climate pollutants, placing a high relative value on short-lived pollutants, such as methane (CH₄) and black carbon (BC) versus carbon dioxide (CO₂). These studies have generated confusion over how to value changes in temperature that occur over short versus long timescales. We show the temperature changes that result from exchanging CO₂ for CH₄ using a variety of commonly suggested metrics to illustrate the trade-offs involved in potential carbon trading mechanisms that place a high value on CH₄ emissions. Reducing CH₄ emissions today would lead to a climate cooling of approximately ~0.5 °C, but this value will not change greatly if we delay reducing CH₄ emissions by years or decades. This is not true for CO₂, for which the climate is influenced by cumulative emissions. Any delay in reducing CO₂ emissions is likely to lead to higher cumulative emissions, and more warming. The exact warming resulting from this delay depends on the trajectory of future CO₂ emissions but using one business-as usual-projection we estimate an increase of 3/4 °C for every 15-year delay in CO₂ mitigation. Overvaluing the influence of CH₄ emissions on climate could easily result in our “locking” the earth into a warmer temperature trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short-term cooling effects of the CH₄ reductions, but then persists for many generations.     

Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

Magnetic remanence acquisition in Finnish lake sediments

Summary. Magnetic studies have been carried out on organic sediments from five Finnish lakes to determine the carrier(s) of the stable NRM and to find how the remanence is acquired. Single or pseudo-single domain 'magnetite' is thought to carry the NRM. It was found that drying and cooling sediment samples resulted in a loss of NRM which was attributed to the misalignment of small magnetic particles. Low-field experiments were carried out on sediment samples in different physical states and from the results of these investigations it was concluded that post-depositional processes are important in the acquisition of an NRM. Stabilization of magnetic grains is thought to be due to the growth of gels in the organic sediment rather than to dewatering.     

A 180 ka record of environmental change at Erdut (Croatia): a new chronology for the loess–palaeosol sequence and its implications for environmental interpretation

While there are numerous thick loess–palaeosol sequences preserved across the Carpathian Basin, well dated sites that provide terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records extending beyond last glacial–interglacial cycle are scarce. Robust chronologies are essential for correlations of loess with other long-term Quaternary records and to further understanding of the palaeoenvironment and climate of this important region beyond the last 125 ka. Here a new geochronology based on 13 post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence ages focused on the lower part of the loess–palaeosol sequence at Erdut is presented. The results show that the lower part of the Erdut profile spans the penultimate glacial cycle (MIS 7 to MIS 5). The considerable sediments overlaying the investigated part of the profile suggest that this section spans two glacial cycles, rather than the previously suggested one. The most likely source of the discrepancy is the use of uncorrected infrared stimulated luminescence signal, which can cause age underestimation if not accounted for. This study demonstrates the need to revisit sites such as Erdut, re-date them using updated measurement protocols, and update existing palaeoenvironmental interpretations.     

Lead analysis of sediment cores from seven Connecticut lakes

Lead analyses were performed on sediment cores from seven Connecticut lakes by dilute acid leaching. The absolute concentrations of lead varied from core to core, but the lead profiles were similar in all of the cores, and each depicted a point where the concentration of lead sharply increased above background levels. The background lead concentrations observed in the bottom portions of the cores ranged from 12-54 g Pb/g sediment with a mean of 30 g Pb/g, and increased to a mean maximum of 310 g Pb/g. In six of the lakes significant increases above background levels were not noted until between 1924 and 1952, suggesting that, at least for Connecticut lakes, the point in a lake sediment core where the concentration of lead began to increase was after ca. 1924, and on average about 1930. Lead concentrations declined in the surface sediments of only three of the lakes, mostly since the 1980's, and presumably in response to the phasing out of leaded gasoline. However, significant declines in lead concentrations were not observed in the remaining cores, possibly due to increased motor vehicle use within the airshed of the lakes and/or changes in the export of lead to the lakes from their watersheds.     

Long-term evolution of the aerosol debris cloud produced by the 2009 impact on Jupiter

We present a study of the long-term evolution of the cloud of aerosols produced in the atmosphere of Jupiter by the impact of an object on 19 July 2009 (Sánchez-Lavega, A. et al. [2010]. Astrophys. J. 715, L155-L159). The work is based on images obtained during 5 months from the impact to 31 December 2009 taken in visible continuum wavelengths and from 20 July 2009 to 28 May 2010 taken in near-infrared deep hydrogen-methane absorption bands at 2.1-2.3 μm. The impact cloud expanded zonally from ∼5000 km (July 19) to 225,000 km (29 October, about 180° in longitude), remaining meridionally localized within a latitude band from 53.5°S to 61.5°S planetographic latitude. During the first two months after its formation the site showed heterogeneous structure with 500-1000 km sized embedded spots. Later the reflectivity of the debris field became more homogeneous due to clump mergers. The cloud was mainly dispersed in longitude by the dominant zonal winds and their meridional shear, during the initial stages, localized motions may have been induced by thermal perturbation caused by the impact’s energy deposition. The tracking of individual spots within the impact cloud shows that the westward jet at 56.5°S latitude increases its eastward velocity with altitude above the tropopause by 5-10 m s⁻¹. The corresponding vertical wind shear is low, about 1 m s⁻¹ per scale height in agreement with previous thermal wind estimations. We found evidence for discrete localized meridional motions with speeds of 1-2 m s⁻¹. Two numerical models are used to simulate the observed cloud dispersion. One is a pure advection of the aerosols by the winds and their shears. The other uses the EPIC code, a nonlinear calculation of the evolution of the potential vorticity field generated by a heat pulse that simulates the impact. Both models reproduce the observed global structure of the cloud and the dominant zonal dispersion of the aerosols, but not the details of the cloud morphology. The reflectivity of the impact cloud decreased exponentially with a characteristic timescale of 15 days; we can explain this behavior with a radiative transfer model of the cloud optical depth coupled to an advection model of the cloud dispersion by the wind shears. The expected sedimentation time in the stratosphere (altitude levels 5-100 mbar) for the small aerosol particles forming the cloud is 45-200 days, thus aerosols were removed vertically over the long term following their zonal dispersion. No evidence of the cloud was detected 10 months after the impact.     

Magmatic processes that generated the rhyolite of Glass Mountain, Medicine Lake volcano, N. California

Glass Mountain consists of a 1 km³, compositionally zoned rhyolite to dacite glass flow containing magmatic inclusions and xenoliths of underlying shallow crust. Mixing of magmas produced by fractional crystallization of andesite and crustal melting generated the rhyolite of Glass Mountain. Melting experiments were carried out on basaltic andesite and andesite magmatic inclusions at 100, 150 and 200 MPa, H₂O-saturated with oxygen fugacity controlled at the nickel-nickel oxide buffer to provide evidence of the role of fractional crystallization in the origin of the rhyolite of Glass Mountain. Isotopic evidence indicates that the crustal component assimilated at Glass Mountain constitutes at least 55 to 60% of the mass of erupted rhyolite. A large volume of mafic andesite (2 to 2.5 km³) periodically replenished the magma reservoir(s) beneath Glass Mountain, underwent extensive fractional crystallization and provided the heat necessary to melt the crust. The crystalline residues of fractionation as well as residual liquids expelled from the cumulate residues are preserved as magmatic inclusions and indicate that this fractionation process occurred at two distinct depths. The presence and composition of amphibole in magmatic inclusions preserve evidence for crystallization of the andesite at pressures of at least 200 MPa (6 km depth) under near H₂O-saturated conditions. Mineralogical evidence preserved in olivine-plagioclase and olivine-plagioclase-high-Ca clinopyroxene-bearing magmatic inclusions indicates that crystallization under near H₂O-saturated conditions also occurred at pressures of 100 MPa (3 km depth) or less. Petrologic, isotopic and geochemical evidence indicate that the andesite underwent fractional crystallization to form the differentiated melts but had no chemical interaction with the melted crustal component. Heat released by the fractionation process was responsible for heating and melting the crust. Received: 26 March 1996 / Accepted: 14 November 1996     

Accumulation,solid partitioning and remobilisation of 99Tc in subtidal and intertidal sediments in the Irish Sea

Recent studies have shown that accumulation of ⁹⁹Tc in seabed sediments labelled by authorised radioactive liquid discharges into the NE Irish Sea from the Sellafield reprocessing complex is greater than previously thought. In this paper, new data on ⁹⁹Tc concentration profiles in subtidal and intertidal sediments from the eastern and western Irish Sea are provided with a view to elucidating the processes responsible for the incorporation and retention of ⁹⁹Tc in the seabed. The data show that substantial amounts of ⁹⁹Tc have accumulated in the fine-grained subtidal sediments off the Cumbrian coast, particularly after increased releases from Sellafield following the commissioning of the Enhanced Actinide Removal Plant (EARP) in 1994. In all the cores taken in this area, ⁹⁹Tc has been found to be present to depths in excess of 30 cm. Analysis of ¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am profiles, together with other supporting geochemical data, show a high degree of homogenisation of the sediments down to these depths as a result of physical and biological processes, and confirm that incorporation of ⁹⁹Tc into the sediment compartment is actually the result of mixing and reworking, rather than active sediment accumulation. In contrast, active deposition of material transported from this mixed pool of sediment appears to be the dominant mechanism controlling ⁹⁹Tc profiles in intertidal areas close to the Sellafield discharge outfall.Data obtained from the analysis of subtidal sediment cores from the western Irish Sea mud basin suggest that similar mixing processes to those occurring in the subtidal sediments of the eastern Irish Sea are also active in this area. Time-series data on ⁹⁹Tc concentrations in surficial sediments from this basin, gathered in the period 1988–2004, inclusive, show a clear increase in concentrations, by a factor of ～2, between samples collected pre-EARP and post-EARP. The constancy of ⁹⁹Tc concentrations in surface sediments throughout the 1980s and the early-1990s suggests that little redissolution and export of ⁹⁹Tc occurred over this extended period. A similar observation applies to the post-EARP period, when concentrations remained relatively constant despite the reported steady decrease in ⁹⁹Tc concentrations in the overlying waters.This apparent lack of remobilisation is consistent with data from sequential extraction analyses, which indicate that the bulk of the ⁹⁹Tc is strongly bound to non-labile geochemical phases, with only a small proportion associated with exchangeable and acido-soluble phases. Further, these analyses show that ⁹⁹Tc is not associated with oxygen-sensitive and highly-reactive acid-volatile sulphides (AVS) to any significant extent.     

Statistical tests of chondrule sorting

Abstract– The variation in sizes of chondrules from one chondrite to the next is thought to be due to some sorting process in the early solar nebula. Hypotheses for the sorting process include chondrule sorting by mass and sorting by some aerodynamic mechanism; one such aerodynamic mechanism is the process of turbulent concentration (TC). We present the results of a series of statistical tests of chondrule data from several different chondrites. The data do not clearly distinguish between various options for the sorting parameter, but we find that the data are inconsistent with being drawn from lognormal or (three‐parameter) Weibull distributions in chondrule radius. We also find that all but one of the chondrule data sets tested are consistent with being drawn from the TC distribution.     

Simulation of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens using the ash-tracking model PUFF

The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.