Statistical tests of chondrule sorting

Abstract– The variation in sizes of chondrules from one chondrite to the next is thought to be due to some sorting process in the early solar nebula. Hypotheses for the sorting process include chondrule sorting by mass and sorting by some aerodynamic mechanism; one such aerodynamic mechanism is the process of turbulent concentration (TC). We present the results of a series of statistical tests of chondrule data from several different chondrites. The data do not clearly distinguish between various options for the sorting parameter, but we find that the data are inconsistent with being drawn from lognormal or (three‐parameter) Weibull distributions in chondrule radius. We also find that all but one of the chondrule data sets tested are consistent with being drawn from the TC distribution.     

Simulation of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens using the ash-tracking model PUFF

The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.     

On harbour siltation in the fresh-salt water mixing region

In this paper a novel series of field measurements are presented, which are the first to elucidate the processes influencing siltation in Botlek Harbour. Botlek Harbour is situated at the limit of saline water intrusion in the Rotterdam Waterway. Normally, after the ebb tide fresher river waters are found in the Rotterdam Waterway at the location of Botlek Harbour. On the flooding tide, the tip of the salt wedge is advected along the Rotterdam Waterway towards the mouth of Botlek Harbour. Hence on flood, a lock-exchange mechanism operates between Botlek Harbour and the Rotterdam Waterway. On the flood tide, when there is a supply of suspended particulate matter (SPM) associated with the presence of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) at the mouth of the harbour, the survey data show exchange of SPM into the harbour. This lock-exchange process is found to be the dominant cause for SPM transport into the harbour. This is further substantiated by an analysis of the mass transport mechanisms. In this analysis, the vertical profiles of the instantaneous velocity, salinity and SPM concentration fields, recorded during the surveys, were decomposed into advective and dispersive transport components. The results of this analysis indicate that the correlation between the lock-exchange mechanism on the flood tide with the availability of SPM for exchange and efficient trapping, dominate the total exchange of SPM (97%). Hence, the increase in measured near-bed SPM concentration within the harbour is ascribed to tidal advection of saline water and the ETM along the Rotterdam Waterway. Tidal advection controls the density difference between the estuary and harbour, as well as the availability of SPM for exchange at the entrance to Botlek Harbour. The location of the ETM at the tip of the salt wedge is a key factor in supplying SPM to Botlek Harbour. Consequently the timing of the availability of SPM at the mouth of the harbour needs to be considered in siltation studies. The survey data suggest that Botlek Harbour basin has a 100% trapping efficiency. Analysis of 5 months of data, from a measuring rig located within the harbour, show excursions of the limit of the salt wedge and ETM. These excursions are likely to affect siltation of upstream harbours. Salinity-induced density gradients control the transport and subsequent trapping of SPM in the estuary in close proximity to the harbour entrance, the exchange of SPM between the estuary and harbour, and the trapping of SPM in the harbour basin.     

Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.     

Varved sediments of Lake Yoa (Ounianga Kebir,Chad) reveal progressive drying of the Sahara during the last 6100 years

The sedimentological and geochemical properties of a 7·47 m long laminated sequence from hypersaline Lake Yoa in northern Chad have been investigated, representing a unique, continuous 6100 year long continental record of climate and environmental change in the eastern Central Sahara. These data were used to reconstruct the Mid to Late Holocene history of this currently hyper‐arid region, in order to address the question of whether the Mid Holocene environmental transition from a humid to a dry Sahara was progressive or abrupt. This study involved a suite of analyses, including petrographic and scanning electron microscope examination of thin sections, X‐ray diffraction, X‐radiography, granulometry, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility. The potential of micro‐X‐ray fluorescence core scanning was tested at very high resolution. Detailed microscopic investigation revealed the sedimentary processes responsible for the formation of the fine laminations, identified the season during which they were formed, and confirmed their annually rhythmic nature. High‐resolution X‐ray fluorescence core scanning allowed the distinction of each individual lamination over the entire record, opening new perspectives for the study of finely laminated sediment sequences. Geochemical and mineralogical data reveal that, due to decreasing monsoon rainfall combined with continuous and strong evaporation, the hydrologically open and fresh Mid Holocene Lake Yoa slowly evolved into the present‐day hypersaline brine depleted in calcium, which has existed for about the past 1050 years. During the oldest part of the investigated period, Lake Yoa probably contained a permanently stratified lower water column that was nevertheless disrupted relatively frequently by mixing events. Deep‐water anoxia became more stable because of increased salinity‐driven density stratification. In parallel, the sediment grain‐size proxies record a progressive increase of aeolian input in the course of the last 6100 years. Altogether, all geochemical and sedimentological indicators point to a progressive drying of the eastern Central Sahara, strengthening previous conclusions based on palaeoecological indicators.     

Analyzing seismic imagery in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains to determine fluid nature and migration pathways: A case study from the Queen Charlotte Basin,offshore British Columbia

Combining time–amplitude and time–frequency information from seismic reflection data sets of different resolutions allows the analysis of anomalous reflections from very-shallow to great subsurface depths. Thus, it can enhance the imaging of subsurface features which have a frequency-dependent reflectivity such as gas. Analysing seismic data of different resolution in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains is a powerful method to determine hydrocarbon migration pathways from deep reservoirs to the seafloor. This interpretation method has been applied to the formerly-glaciated offshore Queen Charlotte Basin hosting several seafloor pockmarks and mounds associated with the leakage of underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. Low-frequency shadows observed in the time–frequency domain provide evidence of different resolutions that several anomalous reflection amplitudes may be attributed to the occurrence of gas. The seismic imagery shows that gas uses a fault to migrate from deep reservoirs included in Upper Mesozoic strata towards secondary reservoirs located along the fault plane into Neogene layers. Once gas reaches a porous cut-and-fill succession, migration changes from structurally- to stratigraphically-controlled before gas leaks through unconsolidated Quaternary sediments forming the shallow subsurface to eventually seep at the seafloor where pockmarks and carbonate mounds are formed.     

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.     

TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ON VENTIFACT DEVELOPMENT,MOJAVE DESERT,CALIFORNIA

I nvestigations into processes of ventifact formation in the east-central Mojave Desert, California confirm the importance of topography as a control in the location, orientation, and intensity of ventifact abrasion. Ventifacts in the region appear to be relict in nature and probably formed during a period that ended several thousand years ago. Comparison of groove orientations with available wind data shows that regional flow direction has not changed in the recent past. Although west to northwest winds are the most frequent and intense, and therefore dictate the regional erosion pattern, low to moderate southeasterly flow is recorded on ventifacts near the crests of hills owing to the effects of velocity acceleration. Two conditions that affect ventifact development are considered in this paper: (1) wind acceleration through topographic constrictions; and (2) wind acceleration up the windward flanks of hills. Constrictions in the Barstow-Bristol trough allowed velocity increases that resulted in ventifaction on 70–90 percent of all exposed cobbles and boulders. Velocity acceleration towards the crests of hills caused a marked increase in sand transport and resultant abrasion, as expressed by increases in groove and pit dimensions. [Key words: Aeolian geomorphology, ventifacts, Mojave Desert, California.]