Fisheries mismanagement

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.     

The Zamama-Thor region of Io: Insights from a synthesis of mapping, topography, and Galileo spacecraft data

We have studied data from the Galileo spacecraft's three remote sensing instruments (Solid-State Imager (SSI), Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS), and Photopolarimeter-Radiometer (PPR)) covering the Zamama-Thor region of Io's antijovian hemisphere, and produced a geomorphological map of this region. This is the third of three regional maps we are producing from the Galileo spacecraft data. Our goal is to assess the variety of volcanic and tectonic materials and their interrelationships on Io using planetary mapping techniques, supplemented with all available Galileo remote sensing data. Based on the Galileo data analysis and our mapping, we have determined that the most recent geologic activity in the Zamama-Thor region has been dominated by two sites of large-scale volcanic surface changes. The Zamama Eruptive Center is a site of both explosive and effusive eruptions, which emanate from two relatively steep edifices (Zamama Tholi A and B) that appear to be built by both silicate and sulfur volcanism. A ∼100-km long flow field formed sometime after the 1979 Voyager flybys, which appears to be a site of promethean-style compound flows, flow-front SO₂ plumes, and adjacent sulfur flows. Larger, possibly stealthy, plumes have on at least one occasion during the Galileo mission tapped a source that probably includes S and/or Cl to produce a red pyroclastic deposit from the same vent from which silicate lavas were erupted. The Thor Eruptive Center, which may have been active prior to Voyager, became active again during the Galileo mission between May and August 2001. A pillanian-style eruption at Thor included the tallest plume observed to date on Io (at least 500 km high) and new dark lava flows. The plume produced a central dark pyroclastic deposit (probably silicate-rich) and an outlying white diffuse ring that is SO₂-rich. Mapping shows that several of the new dark lava flows around the plume vent have reoccupied sites of earlier flows. Unlike most of the other pillanian eruptions observed during the Galileo mission, the 2001 Thor eruption did not produce a large red ring deposit, indicating a relative lack of S and/or Cl gases interacting with the magma during that eruption. Between these two eruptive centers are two paterae, Thomagata and Reshef. Thomagata Patera is located on a large shield-like mesa and shows no signs of activity. In contrast, Reshef Patera is located on a large, irregular mesa that is apparently undergoing degradation through erosion (perhaps from SO₂-sapping or chemical decomposition of sulfur-rich material) from multiple secondary volcanic centers.     

Titanium isotopic compositions of well‐characterized silicon carbide grains from Orgueil (CI): Implications for s‐process nucleosynthesis

Abstract— We have measured the titanium isotopic compositions of 23 silicon carbide grains from the Orgueil (CI) carbonaceous chondrites for which isotopic compositions of silicon, carbon, and nitrogen and aluminum‐magnesium systematics had been measured previously. Using the 16 most‐precise measurements, we estimate the relative contributions of stellar nucleosynthesis during the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase and the initial compositions of the parent stars to the compositions of the grains. To do this, we compare our data to the results of several published stellar models that employ different values for some important parameters. Our analysis confirms that s‐process synthesis during the AGB phase only slightly modified the titanium compositions in the envelopes of the stars where mainstream silicon carbide grains formed, as it did for silicon. Our analysis suggests that the parent stars of the >1 μm silicon carbide grains that we measured were generally somewhat more massive than the Sun (2–3 M_⊙) and had metallicities similar to or slightly higher than solar. Here we differ slightly from results of previous studies, which indicated masses at the lower end of the range 1.5–3 M_⊙ and metallicities near solar. We also conclude that models using a standard ¹³C pocket, which produces a good match for the main component of s‐process elements in the solar system, overestimate the contribution of the ¹³C pocket to s‐process nucleosynthesis of titanium found in silicon carbide grains. Although previous studies have suggested that the solar system has a significantly different titanium isotopic composition than the parent stars of silicon carbide grains, we find no compelling evidence that the Sun falls off of the array defined by those stars. We also conclude that the Sun does lie on the low‐metallicity end of the silicon and titanium arrays defined by mainstream silicon carbide grains.     

Chemical and textural equilibration of garnet during amphibolite facies metamorphism: The influence of coupled dissolution–reprecipitation

Metamorphic equilibration requires chemical communication between minerals and may be inhibited through sluggish volume diffusion and or slow rates of dissolution in a fluid phase. Relatively slow diffusion and the perceived robust nature of chemical growth zoning may preclude garnet porphyroblasts from readily participating in low‐temperature amphibolite facies metamorphic reactions. Garnet is widely assumed to be a reactant in staurolite‐isograd reactions, and the evidence for this has been assessed in the Late Proterozoic Dalradian pelitic schists of the Scottish Highlands. The 3D imaging of garnet porphyroblasts in staurolite‐bearing schists reveals a good crystal shape and little evidence of marginal dissolution; however, there is also lack of evidence for the involvement of either chlorite or chloritoid in the reaction. Staurolite forms directly adjacent to the garnet, and its nucleation is strongly associated with deformation of the muscovite‐rich fabrics around the porphyroblasts. “Cloudy” fluid inclusion‐rich garnet forms in both marginal and internal parts of the garnet porphyroblast and is linked both to the production of staurolite and to the introduction of abundant quartz inclusions within the garnet. Such cloudy garnet typically has a Mg‐rich, Mn‐poor composition and is interpreted to have formed during a coupled dissolution–reprecipitation process, triggered by a local influx of fluid. All garnet in the muscovite‐bearing schists present in this area is potentially reactive, irrespective of the garnet composition, but very few of the schists contain staurolite. The staurolite‐producing reaction appears to be substantially overstepped during the relatively high‐pressure Barrovian regional metamorphism reflecting the limited permeability of the schists in peak metamorphic conditions. Fluid influx and hence reaction progress appear to be strongly controlled by subtle differences in deformation history. The remaining garnet fails to achieve chemical equilibrium during the reaction creating distinctive patchy compositional zoning. Such zoning in metamorphic garnet created during coupled dissolution–reprecipitation reactions may be difficult to recognize in higher grade pelites due to subsequent diffusive re‐equilibration. Fundamental assumptions about metamorphic processes are questioned by the lack of chemical equilibrium during this reaction and the restricted permeability of the regional metamorphic pelitic schists. In addition, the partial loss of prograde chemical and textural information from the garnet porphyroblasts cautions against their routine use as a reliable monitor of metamorphic history. However, the partial re‐equilibration of the porphyroblasts during coupled dissolution–reprecipitation opens possibilities of mapping reaction progress in garnet as a means of assessing fluid access during peak metamorphic conditions.     

Effects of the closure of a major sewage outfall on sublittoral, soft sediment benthic communities

The present study examines the benthos within western inner Swansea Bay (Wales, UK), for the period before, during and immediately after the cessation of a major, sewage discharge from Mumbles Head. There have been significant improvements in seawater quality and changes in the species composition of the benthic communities following the cessation of the sewage discharge. There has been an increase in the diversity of deposit feeders, especially the amphipods, and a decrease in the diversity of the filter feeders, especially the polychaetes. Changes are not attributable either to sediment organic matter content or to gross changes in sediment type, but are related to the significant reduction in suspended particulate organic material and sewage contaminants discharged to the Bay. A recovery model has been proposed to describe how soft sediment benthic communities in a shallow, sublittoral, high tidal energy environment respond to the abrupt cessation of a major sewage discharge.     

The International Laser Ranging Service and its support for IGGOS

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) was established in September 1998 as a service within the IAG to support programs in geodetic, geophysical, and lunar research activities and to provide data products to the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) in support of its prime objectives. Now in operation for 5 years, the ILRS develops: (1) the standards and specifications necessary for product consistency and (2) the priorities and tracking strategies required to maximize network efficiency. The service collects, merges, analyzes, archives and distributes satellite and lunar laser ranging data to satisfy a variety of scientific, engineering, and operational needs and encourages the application of new technologies to enhance the quality, quantity, and cost effectiveness of its data products. The ILRS works with: (1) the global network to improve station performance; (2) new satellite missions in the design and building of retroreflector targets to maximize data quality and quantity and (3) science programs to optimize scientific data yield. The ILRS Central Bureau maintains a comprehensive web site as the primary vehicle for the distribution of information within the ILRS community. The site, which can be accessed at: http://ilrs.gsfc.nasa.gov is also available at mirrored sites at the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Tokyo and the European Data Center (EDC) in Munich.During the last 2 years, the ILRS has addressed very important challenges: (1) data from the field stations are now submitted hourly and made available immediately through the data centers for access by the user community; (2) tracking on low satellites has been significantly improved through the sub-daily issue of predictions, drag functions, and the real-time exchange of time biases; (3) analysis products are now submitted in SINEX format for compatibility with the other space geodesy techniques; (4) the Analysis Working Group is heavily engaged in Pilot Projects as it works toward an ILRS “standard” global solution and (5) SLR has significantly increased its participation in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) activity, which is important to the success of IGGOS.     

Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability

Interannual variability of subtropical sea-surface-height (SSH) anomalies, estimated by satellite and tide-gauge data, is investigated in relation to wintertime daily North-Atlantic weather regimes. Sea-level anomalies can be viewed as proxies for the subtropical gyre intensity because of the intrinsic baroclinic structure of the circulation. Our results show that the strongest correlation between SSH and weather regimes is found with the so-called Atlantic-Ridge (AR) while no significant values are obtained for the other regimes, including those related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), known as the primary actor of the Atlantic dynamics. Wintertime AR events are characterized by anticyclonic wind anomalies off Europe leading to a northward shift of the climatological wind-stress curl. The latter affects subtropical SSH annual variability by altered Sverdrup balance and ocean Rossby wave dynamics propagating westward from the African coast towards the Caribbean. The use of a simple linear planetary geostrophic model allows to quantify those effects and confirms the primary importance of the winter season to explain the largest part of SSH interannual variability in the Atlantic subtropical gyre. Our results open new perspectives in the comprehension of North-Atlantic Ocean variability emphasizing the role of AR as a driver of interannual variability at least of comparable importance to NAO.     

The danger of overvaluing methane’s influence on future climate change

Minimizing the future impacts of climate change requires reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) load in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions include many types of GHG’s as well as particulates such as black carbon and sulfate aerosols, each of which has a different effect on the atmosphere, and a different atmospheric lifetime. Several recent studies have advocated for the importance of short timescales when comparing the climate impact of different climate pollutants, placing a high relative value on short-lived pollutants, such as methane (CH₄) and black carbon (BC) versus carbon dioxide (CO₂). These studies have generated confusion over how to value changes in temperature that occur over short versus long timescales. We show the temperature changes that result from exchanging CO₂ for CH₄ using a variety of commonly suggested metrics to illustrate the trade-offs involved in potential carbon trading mechanisms that place a high value on CH₄ emissions. Reducing CH₄ emissions today would lead to a climate cooling of approximately ~0.5 °C, but this value will not change greatly if we delay reducing CH₄ emissions by years or decades. This is not true for CO₂, for which the climate is influenced by cumulative emissions. Any delay in reducing CO₂ emissions is likely to lead to higher cumulative emissions, and more warming. The exact warming resulting from this delay depends on the trajectory of future CO₂ emissions but using one business-as usual-projection we estimate an increase of 3/4 °C for every 15-year delay in CO₂ mitigation. Overvaluing the influence of CH₄ emissions on climate could easily result in our “locking” the earth into a warmer temperature trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short-term cooling effects of the CH₄ reductions, but then persists for many generations.     

Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database

In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.     

Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.