Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).     

Aragonite crystallization from strained calcite at reduced pressures and its bearing on aragonite in low-grade metamorphism

Aragonite, the dense form of CaCO₃, grew hydrothermally at 100–300° C and dry at 300–400° C at very low pressures from calcite strained by grinding. Nearly complete inversion to aragonite occurred in some runs with Ca-Mg chloride solutions at 0–2.4 kb and 100–200° C on strained calcite having a (10¯14) reflection with a half-width of 0.48° 2 Cu K. A little aragonite grew dry at one atm. from the ground calcite at 300–400° C in a few hrs. Simultaneous shear during recrystallization of calcite in a rotating squeezer resulted in significant aragonite at 300–400° C several kb. below the stability field. No inversion occurred in any ground calcite when previously annealed in CO₂ at 500° C for a few hrs. Thermochemical data show that at least 200 cal/mole of strain energy can be produced in calcite by mild deformation. This much stored energy would lower the pressure requirements of aragonite, relative to the strained calcite by more than 3 kb, and our observation that aragonite growth was faster than strain recovery of calcite indicates that aragonite can grow in nature at reduced pressures from strained calcite.Some experiments were also carried out on highly magnesian calcites with the thought that aragonite might also form at the expense of this metastable material. No aragonite was produced, but the possibility that this mechanism could be operative in nature cannot be discounted.The microtexture of aragonitic deformed marbles from NW Washington (prehnite-pumpellyite facies rocks, courtesy of J. A. Vance) as well as electron probe microanalysis of these rocks indicates that aragonite selectively replaced highly strained calcite. The calcite-aragonite transition is thus a questionable indicator of high-pressure in certain metamorphic rocks.     

小波变换及其在影像表示中的应用和其方向选择性算法的改进

小波理论是研究多分辨率信号处理的理论,目前被公认为有前途的新理论。金字塔结构的影像处理、影像理解,现代GIS处理多比例尺的要求以及地形、场论中的逼近均需有关这一理论的支持。本文利用小波变换分解原始影像以实现影像的小波表示,并发展为任意方向的小波变换、逆变换,利用它检测航片中建筑物及其阴影的公共边缘。这种表示方式可为某些影像特征或识别目标提供较为经济的分辨率,该表示方式使影像中具有一定层次的结构更易于发现和利用。实验结果证明了此方法是有效的。     

A Probabilistic Displacement-based Vulnerability Assessment Procedure for Earthquake Loss Estimation

Earthquake loss estimation studies require predictions to be made of the proportion of a building class falling within discrete damage bands from a specified earthquake demand. These predictions should be made using methods that incorporate both computational efficiency and accuracy such that studies on regional or national levels can be effectively carried out, even when the triggering of multiple earthquake scenarios, as opposed to the use of probabilistic hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra, is employed to realistically assess seismic demand and its consequences on the built environment. Earthquake actions should be represented by a parameter that shows good correlation to damage and that accounts for the relationship between the frequency content of the ground motion and the fundamental period of the building; hence recent proposals to use displacement response spectra. A rational method is proposed herein that defines the capacity of a building class by relating its deformation potential to its fundamental period of vibration at different limit states and comparing this with a displacement response spectrum. The uncertainty in the geometrical, material and limit state properties of a building class is considered and the first-order reliability method, FORM, is used to produce an approximate joint probability density function (JPDF) of displacement capacity and period. The JPDF of capacity may be used in conjunction with the lognormal cumulative distribution function of demand in the classical reliability formula to calculate the probability of failing a given limit state. Vulnerability curves may be produced which, although not directly used in the methodology, serve to illustrate the conceptual soundness of the method and make comparisons with other methods.     

The most-cited works in Geomorphology

We conducted a review and analysis of the references cited in articles published (1995–2004) in the journal Geomorphology and also solicited comments from the authors of the most-cited works on their major influences. Of the 31,696 unique works cited in the journal, only 22 were referenced at least 20 times, with the vast majority (92%) cited only once or twice. We divided the citations into the 10 most-cited books (i.e., complete volumes) and 10 most-cited papers (i.e., journal articles, book chapters, reports). A total of 23 different researchers were responsible for the 20 works, with one (Wolman) being an author or co-author of a quarter of them. Seven of the ten most-cited papers were based on work in the USGS in the mid-twentieth century, indicating a particularly fruitful time of geomorphic research and a particularly important cohort of scientists. Based on our citation analysis and author commentaries, we suggest that classic works in geomorphology are most likely to be those that provide useful knowledge and those that incorporate interdisciplinary perspectives.     

Gamma-ray bursts and Swift

Now that the Swift satellite is up and running, Paul O'Brien, Julian Osborne and Keith Mason report on the ideas and observations that this fast-moving autonomous observatory is investigating.     

Effect of macrophyte spatial variability on channel resistance

Aquatic macrophytes can severely retard flow rates in the river channels that they occupy. Consequently, there is a need to improve our ability to model vegetation resistance, to aid flood prediction and allow for better-informed channel management. An empirical model is developed to calculate flow resistance (Manning’s resistance coefficient) of channels containing the submergent macrophyte Ranunculus (water-crowfoot). Blockage factors (the proportion of a cross-section blocked by vegetation) were determined for up to nine cross-sections at each of 35 river sites. These were used to create blockage-factor percentiles, which were regressed against vegetation resistance. An exponential best-fit relation involving the 69th blockage-factor percentile gave the best results. A parameter relating the length of the vegetated/solid boundary in contact with the open channel to the length of the conventionally-defined wetted perimeter improved the model fit by acting as a pseudo-measure of the turbulent-energy losses generated within the unvegetated stream by the macrophytes. The model was tested on three additional sites containing different macrophyte species and much higher vegetation blockages, and was found to work well.     

Challenging assumptions of future coastal habitat development around the UK

One habitat management requirement forced by 21st century relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), will be the need to re‐comprehend the dimensions of long‐term transgressive behaviour of coastal systems being forced by such RSLR. Fresh approaches to the conceptual modelling and subsequent implementation of new coastal and peri‐marine habitats will be required. There is concern that existing approaches to forecasting coastal systems development (and by implication their associated scarce coastal habitats) over the next century depend on a certain premise of orderly spatial succession of habitats. This assumption is shown to be questionable given the possible future rates of RSLR, magnitude of shoreline retreat and the lack of coastal sediment to maintain the protective morphologies to low‐energy coastal habitats. Of these issues, sediment deficiency is regarded as one of the major problem for future habitat development. Examples of contemporary behaviour of UK coasts show evidence of coastal sediment starvation resulting from relatively stable RSLR, anthropogenic sealing of coastal sources, and intercepted coastal sediment pathways, which together force segmentation of coastal systems. From these examples key principles are deduced which may prejudice the existence of future habitats: accelerated future sediment demand due to RSLR may not be met by supply and, if short‐ to medium‐term hold‐the‐line policies predominate, long‐term strategies for managed realignment and habitat enhancement may prove impossible goals. Methods of contemporary sediment husbandry may help sustain some habitats in place but otherwise, instead of integrated coastal organization, managers may need to consider coastal breakdown, segmentation and habitat reduction as the basis of 21st century coastal evolution and planning. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.