Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.     

Petrogenetic implications of Ti,Zr, Y,and Nb variations in volcanic rocks

Data from experimental runs, coexisting phases in ultramafic rocks and phenocryst-matrix pairs in volcanic rocks have been used to compile a table of mineral-liquid distribution coefficients for Ti, Zr, Y, and Nb for basic, intermediate and acid melt compositions. These values have then been used to interpret variations of these elements, first in basalts and second, during fractional crystallization from basic to acid magmas. For basalts, petrogenetic modelling of Zr/Y, Zr/Ti, and Zr/Nb ratios, when used in conjunction with REE, Cr and isotopic variations, suggests that: (1) the increase in Zr/Y ratio from mid-ocean ridge to within plate basalts and the low Zr/Nb ratios of alkalic basalts are due to (fluid controlled) source heterogeneities; (2) the low Zr and Zr/Y ratio of volcanic arc basalts results from high degree of partial melting of a depleted source; and (3) the high Zr and similar Zr/Y ratio of basalts from fast spreading relative to slow spreading ridges results from open-system fractional crystallization. Modelling of fractionation trends in more evolved rocks using Y-Zr, Ti-Zr and Nb-Zr diagrams highlights in particular the change in crystallizing mafic phases from island arcs (clinopyroxene-dominated) to Andean-type arcs (amphibole±biotite-dominated). These methods can be applied to altered lavas of unknown affinities to provide additional information on their genesis and eruptive environment.     

Clinopyroxene composition in mafic lavas from different tectonic settings

Many metamorphosed and weathered basalts contain fresh clinopyroxene crystals set in an altered groundmass. Microprobe analysis of these relict grains can be used to identify the magma type of the host lava. Statistical discrimination of clinopyroxenes from known magma types provides a test of the effectiveness of this method, showing that any attempt to classify an unknown clinopyroxene as either an ocean-floor basalt, a volcanic arc basalt, a within plate tholeiite or a within plate alkali basalt magma type should have a 70% chance of success. Identification of within plate alkali basalts is most likely to be successful because their pyroxenes characteristically have high Na and Ti and low Si contents. Within plate tholeiites can usually be distinguished from volcanic arc basalts because their pyroxenes contain more Ti, Fe and Mn. However, neither of these last two magma types can be easily distinguished from ocean floor basalts on the basis of pyroxene analyses. Diagrams of pyroxene composition based on discriminant functions and on Na₂O vs MnO vs TiO₂, SiO₂ vs TiO₂ and SiO₂ vs Al₂O₃ provide the basis for visual discrimination. The discrimination achieved is mainly due to differences in the bulk chemistry of the host magmas and in the partitioning of cations into the pyroxene lattice; differences in temperature and crystallization histroy of the magmas are of lesser, but nevertheless finite, importance. Application of this technique to pyroxenes in metabasalts from Othris, Greece gave results consistent with, but more ambiguous than, results obtained from immobile trace element studies.     

A proposed mechanism for storm beach sedimentation

One of the major problems of shingle beach dynamics is the method by which coarse gravel is transferred from beach face to storm beach, the latter often lying several metres above high spring tidal levels. The mechanism which is usually proposed, cites the action of plunging breakers as being central to this problem of sediment transfer. However, the nature of net residual fluid force of plunging breakers is deemed unsatisfactory for any substantial upbeach (onshore) sediment transport during storm conditions on gravel beaches. A mechanism is proposed by which high still water levels due to high astronomical tides, onshore storm force winds and allied wave surge, promote shoaling characteristics and beach profile changes which are conducive to spilling breaker development at tidal extremities. It is the net onshore fluid force vector of the spilling breaker overtopping the beach crest which may be the cause of extreme sedimentation events on the storm beach. An example of such sediment transfer is given for a known storm beach sedimentation event at Llanrhystyd gravel beach, West Wales, during February 1974. Process variables were monitored on several days allowing the use of an inshore breaker steepness criterion, to indicate positions in the tidal regime where plunging breakers give way to spilling forms. This example serves to suggest that more attention should be given to the nature and characteristics of shoaling waves, especially in respect of breaker type, when examining problems of shingle beach dynamics and sedimentation.     

Aenigmatite stability in silica-undersaturated rocks

Aenigmatite is common in many trachytes, phonolites and agpaitic nepheline syenites. Petrographic evidence suggests that the aenigmatite in these rocks arises by the reaction of Ti-magnetite with a peralkaline silica-undersaturated liquid, and it is postulated that a no-oxide field, where aenigmatite is stable, exists in alkaline undersaturated magmas. This field is similar to that found in silicic liquids but lies below the FMQ buffer curve in space and is probably confined within narrow limits of temperature and oxygen fugacity. The hydrated equivalent of aenigmatite is possibly astrophyllite and the latter mineral is frequently associated with Na-amphiboles in natural rocks. This suggests that the stability field of astrophyllite is similar to that of Na-amphiboles with respect to temperature and .     

Limits on the effect of pressure on isotopic fractionation

The equilibrium distribution of oxygen isotopes between calcium carbonate and water was determined at 500°C at pressures from 1 to 20 kbar and at 700°C at pressures of 0.5 and 1 kbar. At both temperatures, the pressure-dependence of the fractionation factor was below the limit of detection. The experimental results are consistent with theoretical estimates of the volume change due to isotope substitution. Application of the theory to silicate systems leads to the conclusion that pressure effects on oxygen isotopic fractionation between silicates are < 0.2% at pressures of tens of kilobars. Thus the observed large variations of O¹⁸/O¹⁶ ratio in kimberlitic eclogites cannot be attributed to the effect of pressure     

Searching for the ‘Right’ Legend: The Impact of Legend Position on Legend Decoding in a Cartographic Memory Task

ABSTRACT

Map legends are key elements of thematic maps and cartographic communication. The question of how to style map legends is a topic which has often been addressed by cartographic academics and practitioners. Nevertheless, the question of where to position a map legend has only hardly been discussed. Principles of cognitive sciences allow the assumption that a legend positioned to the right of a map field can be read and decoded faster than a legend on the left side. This study investigates the impact of legend positioning on legend decoding. It involves an experiment based on a recognition memory paradigm and the registration of eye-movements. The results show that, in less time, a legend positioned to the right of the map field (compared to a left legend) can be decoded faster. The same accuracy of a cognitive representation of geographic space can be achieved in spatial memory.     

Trends in Extremes of Surface Humidity, Temperature, and Summertime Heat Stress in China

l. IntroductionPrevious studies have shown climatological and seasonal surface temperature and humld-ity dlstributlons over China (Wang and Gaffen, 200l ) and evaluated trends in seasonal meansof several surface humidity variables, rainfall, temperatures, and apparent temPerature for thelast half century (Easterling et al., 2000, Zhai et al., 1999, Zhai and Eskridge, l997, Zhai andRen, l997, Wang and Gaffen, 200l). However, trends in local temperatures, and particularlytrends in extreme he…     

Bias in the estimation of wave-induced fatigue damage of offshore structures

The most widely adopted approach for estimating the wave-induced fatigue damage of the tubular joints of offshore structures relies on a wave scatter diagram to characterise the wave environment. This paper shows that the commonly adopted approach to compiling the wave scatter diagram and the subsequent selection of characteristic individual wave height and period pairs for analysis purposes will almost invariably lead to bias in the estimation of fatigue lives. A statistical argument is developed to show the sources and nature of this bias. This is supported by fatigue calculations based on individual wave data collected in the northern North Sea. It is found that the current practice in most cases introduces a substantial conservative bias into estimated fatigue lives. An alternative procedure for producing wave scatter diagrams and selecting wave heights and periods for subsequent finite-element analysis is presented which should lead to unbiased (or at least much less biased) estimates of fatigue lives.