Stability analysis of tunnels driven in jointed rocks by means of a homogenized limit analysis approach

Conceived as a potential alternative to the classical design methods employed for analyzing the stability of underground structures driven in jointed rocks, the homogenization approach stems from the heuristic idea that, from a macroscopic point of view, a rock mass cut by a network of joints may be perceived as a homogenized continuum. The strength properties of the latter can be theoretically obtained from the failure conditions of its individual constituents: rock matrix and joint interfaces. At the material level, the limit analysis reasoning is used in the context of homogenization to formulate the homogenized strength criterion of a jointed rock mass in the particular situation of a single set of parallel joints. As it could be expected, the obtained closed‐form expressions show the strength anisotropy induced by joint preferential orientation. The support functions (π functions) associated with the homogenized strength criterion are also determined in both plane strain and three‐dimensional cases. This criterion is then applied to the investigation of stability analysis of a tunnel excavated in a jointed rock mass. Upper bounds estimated of the stability factor are derived from the implementation of the kinematic approach directly on the homogenized underground structure. Finally, the approach is applied to analyze and discuss the collapse of the Pinheiros subway station (São Paulo, Brazil). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comment on “An extended STIRPAT model-based methodology for evaluating the driving forces affecting carbon emissions in existing public building sector: evidence from China in 2000–2015” by Ma et al. (2017)

Natural Hazards - This contribution highlights that the paper presented by Ma et al. (Nat Hazards 89(2):741–756, 2017) presents VIF lower than 1 which does not coincide with the natural...     

Sedimentological and provenance response to Cambrian closure of the Clymene ocean: The upper Alto Paraguai Group,Paraguay belt,Brazil

Final Gondwana amalgamation was marked by the closure of the Neoproterozoic Clymene ocean between the Amazonia craton and central Gondwana. The events which occurred in the last stage of this closure were recorded in the upper Alto Paraguai Group in the foreland of the Paraguay orogen. Outcrop-based facies analysis of the siliciclastic rocks of upper Alto Paraguai Group, composed of the Sepotuba and Diamantino Formations, was carried out in the Diamantino region, within the eastern part of the Barra dos Bugres basin, Mato Grosso state, central-western Brazil. The Sepotuba Formation is composed of sandy shales with planar to wave lamination interbedded with fine-grained sandstone with climbing ripple cross-lamination, planar lamination, swaley cross-stratification and tangential to sigmoidal cross-bedding with mud drapes, related to marine offshore deposits. The lower Diamantino Formation is composed of a monotonous, laterally continuous for hundreds of metres, interbedded siltstone and fine-grained sandstone succession with regular parallel lamination, climbing ripple cross-lamination and ripple-bedding interpreted as distal turbidites. The upper part of this formation consists of fine to medium-grained sandstones with sigmoidal cross-bedding, planar lamination, climbing ripple cross-lamination, symmetrical to asymmetrical and linguoid ripple marks arranged in lobate sand bodies. These facies are interbedded with thick siltstone in coarsening upward large-scale cycles related to a delta system. The Sepotuba Formation characterises the last transgressive deposits of the Paraguay basin representing the final stage of a marine incursion of the Clymene ocean. The progression of orogenesis in the hinterland resulted in the confinement of the Sepotuba sea as a foredeep sub-basin against the edge of the Amazon craton. Turbidites were generated during the deepening of the basin. The successive filling of the basin was associated with progradation of deltaic lobes from the southeast, in a wide lake or a restricted sea that formed after 541 ± 7 Ma. Southeastern to east dominant Neoproterozoic source regions were confirmed by zircon grains that yielded ages around 600 to 540 Ma, that are interpreted to be from granites in the Paraguay orogen. This overall regressive succession recorded in the Alto Paraguai Group represents the filling up of a foredeep basin after the final amalgamation of western Gondwana in the earliest Phanerozoic.     

Fe,Mn, P and S Speciation in Sediments from the Capivara Hydroelectric Dam Lake (Brazil) as an Indicator of Anthropogenic Influences

The conservation of large water resources is essential for the preservation of human life. The quantification and, more importantly, the speciation of chemical substances that indicate the presence of anthropogenic contamination in water resources are of great importance. This paper presents the results of analysis for the determination of organic, inorganic and total phosphorus, pseudo‐sulfur, and iron and manganese, in five fractions, in water sediments collected from the Capivara Hydroelectric Power Plant, Brazil. A study on the seasonal variation of these parameters was conducted, with data having been collected in the winter and in the summer, at two sites along the dam, 5 km apart, close to the city of Primeiro de Maio. Phosphorous was found in sediments and adjacent soil in the organic form (OP), and was used as an indicator of anthropogenic influence on the reservoir banks. Speciation of potentially toxic Mn showed that it is present in the exchangeable fraction of the 0–5 cm depth layer (sediment/water interface), making its transfer to the water column possible. Results from this study showed that domestic and industrial effluent treatment measures are needed for the preservation of the quality of aquatic environments.     

Midnight reversal of ionospheric plasma bubble eastward velocity to westward velocity during geomagnetically quiettime: Climatology and its model validation

In an effort to better understand the dynamics of westward velocities of the nocturnal F-region plasma, the climatology of the westward traveling plasma bubbles – WTB – occurring during quiettime is studied here. The climatology of the WTB is analyzed here based on airglow images obtained during 14 quiet days between 2001 and 2006 at the Brazilian station São João do Cariri (Geographic 7.45°S, 36.5°W, dip ～20°S). The frequency of occurrence of the WTB maximizes in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The WTB velocities ranged between ～20 and 40 ms^?1. The frequency of occurrence had a peak value of only 3.65% at 2345 LT. The maximum occurrence of the WTB was in July–September. No WTB have been observed from November until April in all years 2001–2006. We show for the first time theoretically that the WTB dominant forcing mechanisms during geomagnetically quiet days are westward thermospheric winds.     

High-temperature emplacement of the Cerro Galán and Toconquis Group ignimbrites (Puna plateau,NW Argentina) determined by TRM analyses

Estimates of pyroclastic flow emplacement temperatures in the Cerro Galán ignimbrite and Toconquis Group ignimbrites were determined using thermal remanent magnetization of lithic clasts embedded within the deposits. These ignimbrites belong to the Cerro Galán volcanic system, one of the largest calderas in the world, in the Puna plateau, NW Argentina. Temperature estimates for the 2.08-Ma Cerro Galán ignimbrite are retrieved from 40 sites in 14 localities (176 measured clasts), distributed at different distances from the caldera and different stratigraphic heights. Additionally, temperature estimates were obtained from 27 sample sites (125 measured clasts) from seven ignimbrite units forming the older Toconquis Group (5.60–4.51 Ma), mainly outcropping along a type section at Rio Las Pitas, Vega Real Grande. The paleomagnetic data obtained by progressive thermal demagnetization show that the clasts of the Cerro Galán ignimbrite have one single magnetic component, oriented close to the expected geomagnetic field at the time of emplacement. Results show therefore that most of the clasts acquired a new magnetization oriented parallel to the magnetic field at the moment of the ignimbrite deposition, suggesting that the clasts were heated up to or above the highest blocking temperature (T _b) of the magnetic minerals (T _b = 580°C for magnetite; T _b = 600–630°C for hematite). We obtained similar emplacement temperature estimations for six out of the seven volcanic units belonging to the Toconquis Group, with the exception of one unit (Lower Merihuaca), where we found two distinct magnetic components. The estimation of emplacement temperatures in this latter case is constrained at 580–610°C, which are lower than the other ignimbrites. These estimations are also in agreement with the lowest pre-eruptive magma temperatures calculated for the same unit (i.e., 790°C; hornblende–plagioclase thermometer; Folkes et al. 2011b). We conclude that the Cerro Galán ignimbrite and Toconquis Group ignimbrites were emplaced at temperatures equal to or higher than 620°C, except for Lower Merihuaca unit emplaced at lower temperatures. The homogeneity of high temperatures from proximal to distal facies in the Cerro Galán ignimbrite provides constraints for the emplacement model, marked by a relatively low eruption column, low levels of turbulence, air entrainment, surface–water interaction, and a high level of topographic confinement, all ensuring minimal heat loss.     

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.     

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.