Application of stochastic simulation to climatic-change studies

Stochastic modelling provides a tool for exploring the full implications of the statistical behavior of historical records and can be used to predict the changing probabilities that events of various magnitudes will occur for different climatic change scenarios. Two simulation models are presented, one for daily air temperature, and the other for daily precipitation. The simulation procedures are: (1) extract salient parameter values from historical records; (2) simulate long sequences of data using the stochastic models, with or without a climatic change scenario as provided by a general circulation model; and (3) using the simulated data as inputs, derive the probability distributions of other variables based on known deterministic or probabilistic relationships between the input and the predicted variables.Given a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, the climatic models produce varying degrees of temperature and precipitation changes. Examples of application, including the derivation of snowfall and riverice data using simulated temperature and precipitation, illustrate that stochastic modelling offers a suitable approach to quantify the possible hydrologic impacts of climatic change.     

Carbonic anhydrase I in a cartilaginous fish,the shortspine spurdog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Squalus mitsukurii</Emphasis>)

Carbonic anhydrase (CA), a ubiquitous enzyme found in many species, including fishes, is involved in physiological functions such as pH homeostasis, calcification, photosynthesis, and ionic regulation. CA I, a member of the α-CA family, is a cytoplasmic isozyme involved in carbon dioxide transport, ion exchange, and acid-base balance. Approximately half of the extant shark species occur only in deep waters; however, few published studies on sharks include these taxa. As fisheries worldwide enter deeper waters, the provision of biological data for these little-known taxa is critical to their management and conservation. To address this limitation, we aimed to detect CA I in various tissues of the shortspine spurdog (Squalus mitsukurii) and characterize its physicochemical properties by using sodium dodecyl-sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and isoelectric focusing, together with immunohistochemistry. CA I was detected on SDS-PAGE and western blot analysis as a specific band at 29 kDa in various tissues of the shortspine spurdog, and as a specific band at pI 6.5 in various tissues of the shortspine spurdog by IEF and western blot analysis. CA I immunoreactivity in various tissues of the shortspine spurdog was detected in intracellular locations. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the localization of CA isozymes in various tissues of S. mitsukurii.     

Linked and Independent African American Migration from Los Angeles

This paper examines African American migration from Los Angeles County, 1985–1990, utilizing Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data to identify linkages between Los Angeles migrants and others in destination households. Increased migration to suburban counties and to regions outside of the South, since 1975–1980, suggests an overall diversification of African American migration. The majority of outmigrants were “independent” because they moved into 1990 destination households that contained only migrants from the same origin, Los Angeles County. Others were linked either to nonmovers or to migrants from other places in destination households. A discriminant analysis suggests that many migrants linked to nonmigrants were moving for assistance, depending on others at the destination for housing and financial resources. In contrast, independent migrants have the personal resources to set up their own destination households.     

Developing A National Groundwater-Monitoring Network In Korea

Since the 1960's, the groundwater resources of Korea have been developed without a proper regulatory system for monitoring and preservation, resulting in significant source depletion, land subsidence, water contamination, and sea-water intrusion. With the activation of the "Groundwater Law" in June 1994, the government initiated a project to develop a groundwater-monitoring network to describe general groundwater quality, to define its long-term changes, and to identify major factors affecting changes in groundwater quality and yield. In selecting monitoring locations nationwide, criteria considered are 1) spatial distribution, 2) aquifer characteristics of hydrogeologic units, 3) local groundwater flow regime, 4) linkage with surface hydrology observations, 5) site accessibility, and 6) financial situations. A total of 310 sites in 78 small hydrologic basins were selected to compose the monitoring network. Installation of monitoring wells is scheduled to start in 1995 for 15 sites; the remainder are scheduled to be completed by 2001. At each site, a nest of monitoring wells was designed; shallow and deep groundwater will be monitored for water temperature, pH, EC, DO and TDS every month. Water-level fluctuations will also be measured by automatic recorders equipped with pressure transducers. As a next step, the government plans to develop a groundwater-database management system, which could be linked with surface hydrologic data. RÉSUMÉ: Depuis les années 60, les ressources en eaux souterraines de la Corée ont été mises en valeur sans dispositif réglementaire adapté de surveillance et de protection, ce qui a provoqué la diminution significative des apports, la subsidence des sols, la contamination de l'eau et l'intrusion d'eau marine. Avec la mise en vigueur de la "Loi sur les Eaux Souterraines", en juin 1994, le gouvernement a lancé un programme de réalisation d'un réseau de surveillance des eaux souterraines afin de décrire la qualité générale des eaux souterraines, de définir les variations à long terme et d'identifier les principaux facteurs responsables des variations de la qualité et du débit des eaux souterraines. Pour sélectionner les sites de contrôle à l'échelle du pays, les critères retenus sont les suivants: 1) la répartition spatiale, 2) les caractères aquifères des unités hydrologiques, 3) le régime local des écoulements souterrains, 4) le lien avec les observations faites en hydrologie de surface, 5) l'accessibilité des sites et 6) le réseau de surveillance. La mise en place de piézomètres de contrôle a été programmé pour le début de 1995, sur 15 sites; le reste est prévu d'ici à 2001. Sur chaque site, un groupe de piézomètres de contrôle a été prévu; la température, le pH, la conductivité électrique et la minéralisation des eaux souterraines superficielles et profondes seront mesurés chaque mois. Les variations du niveau piézométrique seront aussi mesurées au moyen de capteurs de pression reliés à des chaînes d'acquisition. Dans une étape ultérieure, le gouvernement prévoit de créer un système de gestion d'une banque de données sur les eaux souterraines, qui seront reliées aux données sur les eaux de surface. RESUMEN: Desde los años 60, los recursos de agua subterránea en Corea han sido desarrollados sin un sistema de regulación adecuado de control y conservación. Esto ha resultado en una disminución de los recursos, problemas de subsidencia, contaminación de aguas e intrusión marina. Con la activación de la "Ley de Aguas Subterráneas" en junio de 1994, el gobierno inició un proyecto para la instalación de una red de control de agua subterráneas con el objeto de establecer su calidad, definir sus variaciones a largo plazo e identificar los factores principales que afectan tanto su calidad como el suministro. Los criterios para seleccionar los puntos de control en todo el país fueron: 1) su distribución espacial, 2) las características de las unidades hidrogeológicas, 3) el régimen de flujo local, 4) su relación con el comportamiento observado de las aguas superficiales, 5) su accesibilidad, y 6) criterios económicos. Se seleccionaron un total de 310 lugares, situados en 78 pequeñas cuencas hidrológicas, para formar la red de control. La instalación de los pozos de control está previsto que empiece en 1995 para 15 puntos; el resto se deberá completar hacia el año 2001. En cada localización seleccionada se ha previsto un conjunto de pozos con el objetivo de tomar medidas, tanto en aguas subsuperficiales como profundas, de temperatura del agua, pH, CE, DO y TSD, mensualmente. Las oscilaciones de niveles del agua también se medirán, mediante registros automáticos conectados a transductores de presión. Como paso siguiente, el gobierno tiene previsto desarrollar un sistema de gestión de bases de datos hidrogeológicas, que pudiera conectarse con los datos de hidrología superficial.     

Lateral and consolidation behaviors of seabed-type breakwater for very soft ground

A seabed-type of breakwater applicable to very soft ground without the need for soil improvement is newly developed. This type of soft-ground breakwater is expected to ensure sufficient lateral resistance and prevent excessive consolidation settlement due to self-weight of the breakwater. In this paper, lateral and consolidation behaviors of soft-ground breakwater were investigated by performing model tests and finite element simulations. The results revealed that the bottom wall and buoyant box, which are the main features of soft-ground breakwater, contribute to the increase in lateral resistance and to the control of the consolidation settlements, respectively, and that Terzaghi's consolidation theory could be conservatively adopted in deriving the consolidation settlements of soft-ground breakwater proposed herein.     

Crustal analysis of the Ulleung Basin in the East Sea (Japan Sea) from enhanced gravity mapping

To facilitate geological analyses of the Ulleung Basin in the East Sea (Japan Sea) between Korea and Japan, shipborne and satellite altimetry-derived gravity data are combined to derive a regionally coherent anomaly field. The 2-min gridded satellite altimetry-based gravity predicted by Sandwell and Smith [Sandwell DT, Smith WHF (1997) J Geophys Res 102(B5):10,039–10,054] are used for making cross-over adjustments that reduce the errors between track segments and at the cross-over points of shipborne gravity profiles. Relative to the regionally more homogeneous satellite gravity anomalies, the longer wavelength components of the shipborne anomalies are significantly improved with minimal distortion of their shorter wavelength components. The resulting free-air gravity anomaly map yields a more coherent integration of short and long wavelength anomalies compared to that obtained from either the shipborne or satellite data sets separately. The derived free-air anomalies range over about 140 mGals or more in amplitude and regionally correspond with bathymetric undulations in the Ulleung Basin. The gravity lows and highs along the basin’s margin indicate the transition from continental to oceanic crust. However, in the northeastern and central Ulleung Basin, the negative regional correlation between the central gravity high and bathymetric low suggests the presence of shallow denser mantle beneath thinned oceanic crust. A series of gravity highs mark seamounts or volcanic terranes from the Korean Plateau to Oki Island. Gravity modeling suggests underplating by mafic igneous rocks of the northwestern margin of the Ulleung Basin and the transition between continental and oceanic crust. The crust of the central Ulleung Basin is about a 14–15 km thick with a 4–5 km thick sediment cover. It may also include a relatively weakly developed buried fossil spreading ridge with approximately 2 km of relief.     

Lithofacies modeling by multipoint statistics and economic evaluation by NPV volume for the early Cretaceous Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca oilsands area,Canada

The static modeling and dynamic simulation are essential and critical processes in petroleum exploration and development. In this study, lithofacies models for Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca, Canada are generated by multipoint statistics(MPS) and then compared with the models built by sequential indicator simulation(SIS). Three training images(Tls) are selected from modern depositional environments;the Orinoco River Delta estuary, Cobequid bay-Salmon River estuary, and Danube River delta environment. In order to validate lithofacies models, average and variance of similarity in lithofacies are calculated through random and zonal blind-well tests.In random six-blind-well test, similarity average of MPS models is higher than that of SIS model. The Salmon MPS model closely resembles facies pattern of Wabiskaw Member in subsurface. Zonal blind-well tests show that successful lithofacies modeling for transitional depositional setting requires additional or proper zonation information on horizontal variation, vertical proportion, and secondary data.As Wabiskaw Member is frontier oilsands lease, it is impossible to evaluate the economics from production data or dynamic simulation. In this study, a dynamic steam assisted gravity drainage(SAGD)performance indicator(SPIDER) on the basis of reservoir characteristics is calculated to build 3 D reservoir model for the evaluation of the SAGD feasibility in Wabiskaw Member. SPIDER depends on reservoir properties, economic limit of steam-oil ratio, and bitumen price. Reservoir properties like porosity,permeability, and water saturation are measured from 13 cores and calculated from 201 well-logs. Three dimensional volumes of reservoir properties are constructed mostly based on relationships among properties. Finally, net present value(NPV) volume can be built by equation relating NPV and SPIDER. The economic area exceeding criterion of US$ 10,000 is identified, and the ranges of reservoir properties are estimated. NPV-volume-generation workflow from reservoir parameter to static model provides costand time-effective method to evaluate the oilsands SAGD project.     

Redox zonation for different groundwater flow paths during bank filtration: a case study at Liao River,Shenyang, northeastern China

The spatial and temporal distribution of redox zones in an aquifer is important when designing groundwater supply systems. Redox zonation can have direct or indirect control of the biological and chemical reactions and mobility of pollutants. In this study, redox conditions are characterized by interpreting the hydrogeological conditions and water chemistry in groundwater during bank infiltration at a site in Shenyang, northeast China. The relevant redox processes and zonal differences in a shallow flow path and deeper flow path at the field scale were revealed by monitoring the redox parameters and chemistry of groundwater near the Liao River. The results show obvious horizontal and vertical components of redox zones during bank filtration. Variations in the horizontal extent of the redox zone were controlled by the different permeabilities of the riverbed sediments and aquifer with depth. Horizontally, the redox zone was situated within 17 m of the riverbank for the shallow flow path and within 200 m for the deep flow path. The vertical extent of the redox zone was affected by precipitation and seasonal river floods and extended to 10 m below the surface. During bank filtration, iron and manganese oxides or hydroxides were reductively dissolved, and arsenic that was adsorbed onto the medium surface or coprecipitated is released into the groundwater. This leads to increased arsenic content in groundwater, which poses a serious threat to water supply security.     

Antibiotic Resistance and Plasmid Profiles of Vibrio Isolates from Cultured Silver Sea Bream, Sparus sarba

A total of 51 potential pathogenic vibrios were isolated from moribund silver sea bream (Sparus sarba) collected from fish farms in Hong Kong. Using the API 20E system and the scheme of Alsina and Blanch (1994), 7 species were identified from all isolates. These species were Vibrio alginolyticus (24 strains), Vibrio vulnificus (12 strains), Vibrio parahaemolyticus (7 strains), Vibrio logei (4 strains), Vibrio pelagius II (2 strains), Vibrio fluvialis (1 strain) and Vibrio meditterranei (1 strain). The three dominant species (V. alginolyticus, V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus) were confirmed to be virulent to sea bream by experimental challenge.

All isolates were screened for plasmid DNA by agarose gel electrophoresis and tested for susceptibility to 16 antibiotics by the agar dilution method. Of the 51 isolates examined, all strains were sensitive to ceftriaxone, streptomycin, nalidixic acid and rifampicin, and almost all were sensitive to ceftazidime, netilimicin, chloramphenicol and sulfamethoxazole. Most isolates were resistant to ampicillin (60.8%), cefuroxime (66.7%), amikacin (55%), kanamycin (58.8%) and trimethoprim (76.5%). Fifteen of the 51 isolates harboured 1–4 plasmids, with sizes ranging from 9 to 123 kb. Both the plasmids and the associated antibiotic resistance (ampicillin, cefuroxime and trimethoprim) of 9 isolates could be transferred to a recipient by single-step conjugation. However, the frequencies were very low, ranging from 10⁻¹¹ to 10⁻⁹. The present results indicate that resistance to these antibiotics is chromosomal.     

The Development of Anoxia in the Artificial Lake Shihwa, Korea, as a Consequence of Intertidal Reclamation

The reclamation of an intertidal flat recently created Lake Shihwa, in Kyunggi province, on the western coast of Korea. The artificial, saline lake was expected to transform into a freshwater one. However, the drainage structure of the lake does not allow entrapped Yellow Sea water to be fully replaced by freshwater from its hinterland. The lake water is strongly stratified with polluted freshwater at the surface and entrapped, saline water on the bottom. The pycnocline, lying at a depth range of 6–8 m, prevents mixing between the two water bodies, and thus generates anoxic conditions in the deeper waters. The pycnocline matches the oxic/anoxic interface between the oxygenated surface water and the hydrogen sulphide rich deep water. Stratification, the inflow of polluted water, and anoxia all contribute to the disastrous pollution of the lake.