Inference of Solar Magnetic Field Parameters from Data with Limited Wavelength Sampling

We investigate the diagnostic potential of polarimetric measurements with filtergraph instruments. Numerical simulations are used to explore the possibility of inferring the magnetic field vector, its filling factor, and the thermodynamics of model atmospheres when only a few wavelength measurements are available. These simulations assume the magnetic Sun to be represented by Milne–Eddington atmospheres. The results indicate that two wavelength measurements are insufficient to reliably determine the magnetic parameters, regardless of whether magnetograph techniques or least-squares fitting inversions are used. However, as few as four measurements analyzed with the inversion technique provide enough information to retrieve the intrinsic magnetic field with an accuracy better than 10% in most cases.     

A digitized global flood inventory (1998–2008): compilation and preliminary results

Floods have profound impacts on populations worldwide in terms of both loss of life and property. A global inventory of floods is an important tool for quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of floods and for evaluating global flood prediction models. Several global hazard inventories currently exist; however, their utility for spatiotemporal analysis of global floods is limited. The existing flood catalogs either fail to record the geospatial area over which the flood impacted or restrict the types of flood events included in the database according to a set of criteria, limiting the scope of the inventory. To improve upon existing databases, and make it more comprehensive, we have compiled a digitized Global Flood Inventory (GFI) for the period 1998–2008 which also geo-references each flood event by latitude and longitude. This technical report presents the methodology used to compile the GFI and preliminary findings on the spatial and temporal distributions of the flooding events that are contained in the inventory.     

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.     

Incorporation of argon, krypton and xenon into clathrates on Mars

Calculations of the trapping of heavy noble gases within multiple guest clathrates under Mars-like conditions show that a substantial fraction of the martian Xe, perhaps even the vast majority, could be in clathrates. In addition, the Xe/Kr ratio in the clathrates would probably be much higher than in the atmosphere, so the formation or dissociation of a relatively small amount of clathrate could measurably change the atmospheric ratio. Relatively crude (factor of 2) measurements of the seasonal variability in that ratio by in situ spacecraft would be sensitive to ∼10% of the seasonal atmospheric CO₂ variability being a result of clathrates, rather than pure CO₂ frost. In addition, sequestration of Xe in clathrates remains a viable mechanism for explaining the variable Xe/Kr ratios seen in different suites of martian meteorites.     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contaminant concentrations in sport fish from San Francisco Bay, 1997

In 1997, seven sport fish species were sampled from seven popular fishing areas in San Francisco Bay. Mercury exceeded a human health screening value in 44 of 84 (52%) samples. All collected samples of leopard shark and striped bass exceeded the mercury screening value of 0.23 microg/g wet weight. PCBs exceeded the screening value in 51 of 72 (71%) samples. DDT, chlordane, and dieldrin, had lower numbers of samples above screening values: 16 of 72 (22%) for DDT, 11 of 72 (15%) for chlordanes, and 27 of 72 (37%) for dieldrin. Concentrations of PCBs and other trace organics were highest in white croaker and shiner surfperch, the two species with the highest fat content in their muscle tissue. Fish from one location, Oakland Harbor, had significantly elevated wet weight concentrations of mercury, PCBs, DDTs, and chlordanes compared to other locations. Removal of skin from white croaker fillets reduced lipid concentrations by 27-49% and concentrations of trace organics by 33-40%.     

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

Joint modelling of wave spectral parameters for extreme sea states

Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (H_S) and spectral peak period (T_P) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of H_S and T_P. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community.     

The effects of organic removal treatment on the integrity of δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O measurements from biogenic silica

Prior to oxygen isotope analysis of biogenic silica by fluorination techniques, sediments must be cleaned of all organic compounds. Despite the expanding volume of research utilising oxygen isotope ratios in biogenic silica in palaeoclimatology, very little is known about the effects of different standard preparation methods for the removal of organic matter on the isotope values. Here we compare a number of methods for the removal of organic matter in order to assess their effectiveness and influence on subsequent isotope measurements. Not all the methods described here effectively removed organic matter, the best treatments were H₂O₂ and ignition in air at 550°C. Ignition in air at 950°C, and heating in vacuum at 250 and 450°C results in marked alteration of isotope values, whereas use of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), nitric acid (HNO₃) and plasma ashing have little or no effect, within the bounds of analytical error. Ignition in air at 550°C was the most effective technique, and induced no alteration of δ¹⁸O_silica, but practical constraints may limit the application of this method routinely. Our findings indicate that considerable caution is required when preparing sediment for isotope analysis of biogenic silica.     

Controls on sediment export from the Waipaoa River basin, New Zealand

A stability model of drainage basin mass balance is used to interpret historic and prehistoric patterns of sediment production, storage and output from the Waipaoa River basin, New Zealand and assess the sensitivity of basin sediment yield to land use change in the historic period. Climate and vegetation cover changed during the late Holocene, but the drainage basin mass balance system was stable before the basin was deforested by European colonists in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In this meso‐scale dispersal system sediment sources and sinks are closely linked, and before that time there was also little variability in the rate of terrigenous mass accumulation on the adjacent continental shelf. However, despite strong first‐order geologic controls on erosion and extensive alluvial storage, sediment delivery to the continental shelf is sensitive and highly responsive to historic hillslope destabilization driven by land use change. Alluvial buffering can mask the effects of variations in sediment production within a basin on sediment yield at the outlet, but this is most likely to occur in basins where alluvial storage is large relative to yield and where the residence time of alluvial sediment is long relative to the time scale of environmental change. At present, neither situation applies to the Waipaoa River basin. Thus, the strength of the contemporary depositional signal may not only be due to the intensity of the erosion processes involved, but also to the fact that land use change in the historic period destabilized the drainage basin mass balance system.