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151.
Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jessica Hartman Kristie Ebi K. John McConnell Nathan Chan John Weyant 《Global Change & Human Health》2002,3(1):42-54
As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring
malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model
of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in
2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature
and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense
human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission,
while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity
and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed
can be used within or across other African countries.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
152.
David Asher Mark Bailey Apostolos Christou John McFarland Mark Muir Paul Rafferty 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2002,43(2):2.19-2.21
A possible naked-eye comet that may have been important in early cometary theory is announced by D J Asher , M E Bailey , A Christou , J McFarland , M F Muir and P P Rafferty .
Early indications sugest that Comet C/2002 (Ikeya-Zhang), discovered on 1 February 2002, may brighten to naked-eye visibility in late March 2002. It has also been suggested that it may be identical to one of the brighter comets of the 16th or 17th centuries, namely C/1532 R1 or C/1661 C1. The first of these, observed for more than 100 days towards the end of 1532, played an important role in the development of cometary theory. The second, although identified by Halley as having an orbit similar to that of the comet C/1532 R1, was not seen on its predicted return in 1788/1789 and so was presumably unrelated. Here we present long-term orbital integrations of C/2002 C1 which suggest that it orginated from the Oort cloud, and will be ejected again, within ˜0.3 Myr. There is a chance of 10–20% that it will end its life by falling into the Sun during a Halley-type phase of cometary evolution. The discovery of Ikeya-Zhang so closeto perigee by two amateur astonomers highlights the need for surveys covering both hemispheres to discover long-period and intermediate-period comets on Earth-crossing orbits. 相似文献
Early indications sugest that Comet C/2002 (Ikeya-Zhang), discovered on 1 February 2002, may brighten to naked-eye visibility in late March 2002. It has also been suggested that it may be identical to one of the brighter comets of the 16th or 17th centuries, namely C/1532 R1 or C/1661 C1. The first of these, observed for more than 100 days towards the end of 1532, played an important role in the development of cometary theory. The second, although identified by Halley as having an orbit similar to that of the comet C/1532 R1, was not seen on its predicted return in 1788/1789 and so was presumably unrelated. Here we present long-term orbital integrations of C/2002 C1 which suggest that it orginated from the Oort cloud, and will be ejected again, within ˜0.3 Myr. There is a chance of 10–20% that it will end its life by falling into the Sun during a Halley-type phase of cometary evolution. The discovery of Ikeya-Zhang so closeto perigee by two amateur astonomers highlights the need for surveys covering both hemispheres to discover long-period and intermediate-period comets on Earth-crossing orbits. 相似文献
153.
Meretta Lake (Resolute Bay, Cornwallis Island, Nunavut, Canada) is a high arctic lake that received raw sewage for almost 50 years from the Canadian Department of Transport Base. The lake was sampled from 1968–72 during the International Biological Programme, as part of the Char Lake Project. As the number of users at the Transport Base declined throughout the 1990s, so too did the lake's nutrient levels, and Meretta Lake is now classified as oligotrophic. A previous diatom-based paleolimnological study revealed marked species assemblage shifts coincident with sewage inputs beginning in the late 1940s; however, because the core was taken at a time when nutrient levels were still relatively high (i.e., 1993), the diatom record did not yet track any signs of recovery. In this present study, we examined fossil diatom assemblages from a sediment core taken in 2001. Our results indicate a shift to the pre-impact diatom assemblages in the most recent sediments, indicating that the paleolimnological record is tracking the decreased nutrient inputs to this high arctic lake, and confirms that no significant lags exist in these largely ice-covered lakes. 相似文献
154.
Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With... 相似文献
155.
Sean W. Campbell John C. Dixon Colin E. Thorn & Robert G. Darmody 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2002,84(3&4):179-185
This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of chemical denudation rates in Kärkevagge, northern Sweden. The chemical flux rates within the valley are strongly influenced by the local geology. Chemical denudation rates determined for the study period are more than double those previously reported in the literature for this valley. Rates of greater than 46t km−2 a−1 were measured at the valley mouth over the course of the melt season. This difference is likely due to differences in measurement technique compared to that used by past researchers. This rate is also much higher than for other arctic and alpine watersheds. Chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is comparable to larger temperate rivers. The rapid chemical denudation in Kärkevagge is likely due to sulfide weathering creating acid solutions. 相似文献
156.
John E. Gordon Igor J. Dvorák Christer Jonasson Melanie Josefsson Milena Kociánová & Des B.A. Thompson 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2002,84(3&4):193-203
Montane (alpine) areas are generally of high value for nature conservation. Such environments and the habitats they support are dynamic and often fragile. They are vulnerable to disturbance from a range of human activities and are responsive to climate changes over short and long timescales. Biodiversity and conservation values are closely linked to geological history, geomorphological processes and soils, and it is crucial that management systems are based on understanding these links.
There are many similarities between the Cairngorm Mountains (Scotland), the Giant Mountains (Czech Republic) and Abisko Mountains (Sweden) in terms of geology, geomorphology, ecology, links with biodiversity and high conservation importance. Comparable pressures and management issues involve, to varying degrees, a history of human use and impacts from deforestation, pasturing, grazing, recreation and atmospheric pollution. Landscape change therefore involves a complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. Managing such change requires better understanding of the geo–ecological processes involved and the factors that determine landscape sensitivity. This is illustrated through a simple framework and examples from the three areas. Comparison of landscape sensitivity between similar montane areas, but in different geographic locations and climatic environments, should allow more informed management planning and a precautionary approach in advance of further changes in human activity and from predicted global warming scenarios. 相似文献
There are many similarities between the Cairngorm Mountains (Scotland), the Giant Mountains (Czech Republic) and Abisko Mountains (Sweden) in terms of geology, geomorphology, ecology, links with biodiversity and high conservation importance. Comparable pressures and management issues involve, to varying degrees, a history of human use and impacts from deforestation, pasturing, grazing, recreation and atmospheric pollution. Landscape change therefore involves a complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. Managing such change requires better understanding of the geo–ecological processes involved and the factors that determine landscape sensitivity. This is illustrated through a simple framework and examples from the three areas. Comparison of landscape sensitivity between similar montane areas, but in different geographic locations and climatic environments, should allow more informed management planning and a precautionary approach in advance of further changes in human activity and from predicted global warming scenarios. 相似文献
157.
Data and model uncertainty estimation for linear inversion 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kasper van Wijk John A. Scales William Navidi Luis Tenorio 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(3):625-632
158.
This paper goes some way towards redressing the lack of geographical literature on charity through exploring the geography of the British domestic charitable sector. The size and geography of the third sector is outlined, followed by an analysis of how almshouses can be understood as inherently geographical and deeply embedded in local social networks of inclusion as well as exclusion. 相似文献
159.
160.