Local mobility and the spatial dynamics of measles in a rural area of Kenya

Population mobility at different scales is important in the analysis of contagious diseases. The role of local mobility among young children is related to spatial and temporal patterns of measles in part of rural Kenya. The dynamics of measles are examined over a period of 3 1/2 years, during which there were two epidemics; the path of the second of these epidemics is studied, using a spatial averaging technique (the centroid). Limited local mobility of children under the age of five, related to low levels of susceptibility provides a probable explanation of the slow diffusion of measles epidemics.This paper is reprinted from Rural Africana, Spring 1981, with the kind permission of the Editors.     

Magnesium isotopes constraints on the origin of Mg-rich olivines from the Allende chondrite: Nebular versus planetary?

High precision Mg isotope measurements by multi-collector ion microprobe show that refractory olivines from the Allende chondrite, either olivines isolated in the matrix (2 samples studied) or olivines in type I chondrules (6 samples studied), have variable δ²⁶Mg* enrichments and deficits (calculated in permil as the ²⁶Mg deviation from the instrumental mass fractionation line) relative to the Earth. Most average δ²⁶Mg* (noted δ²⁶Mg*_av) values (between 10 and 20 analyses per chondrule) are negative but the total range is from ?0.029 (± 0.010) ‰ (2 sigma errors) to + 0.011 (± 0.011) ‰ with an exception of one olivine at + 0.043 (± 0.023) ‰. These variations in δ²⁶Mg*_av reflect the formation of the olivines from reservoirs enriched in various amounts of ²⁶Mg by the decay of short-lived ²⁶Al (T_1/2 = 0.73 Ma). Similarly, 30 analyses of olivines from the Eagle Station pallasite show a δ²⁶Mg*_av value of ?0.033 ± 0.008‰, as negative as some olivines from Allende chondrules and the Solar system initial δ²⁶Mg* value of ?0.038 ± 0.004‰ (defined at the time of formation of type B Ca–Al-rich inclusions – CAIs – when ²⁶Al/²⁷Al = 5.23 × 10^?5, Jacobsen et al., 2008).Because olivines are Al-poor and because their Mg isotopic compositions are not reset during the chondrule forming events, their δ²⁶Mg*_av can be used to calculate model crystallization ages relative to various theoretical Mg isotope growth curves. The two end-member scenarios considered are (i) a “nebular” growth in which the Al/Mg ratio remains chondritic and (ii) a “planetary” growth in which a significant increase of the Al/Mg ratio can be due to, for instance, olivine magmatic fractionation. The low δ²⁶Mg*_av value of olivines from the Eagle Station pallasite demonstrate that metal-silicate differentiation occurred as early as ~ 0. 15_- 0. 23^+ 0. 29 Ma after CAIs in either of the growth scenarios. Similarly the variable δ²⁶Mg*_av values of refractory olivines can be understood if they were formed in planetesimals which started to differentiate as early as the Eagle Station parent body. Accretion of these planetesimals must have been coeval to the formation of CAIs and their disruption could explain why their fragments (Mg-rich olivines) were distributed in the chondrule forming regions of the disk.     

Properties of the Hermean regolith: I. Global regolith albedo variation at 200 km scale from multicolor CCD imaging

Multicolor imaging of Mercury has been performed with the 0.5 m Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope (SVST) on La Palma at five elongations from 1995 to 1999, resulting in a global Minnaert normalized map of the surface at 200 km resolution. Short exposure CCD imaging has been performed in the optical and near-infrared with broad- and intermediate band filters at wavelengths from 550 to 940 nm. Positions for 86 and morphological parameters for 63 bright albedo features on the Hermean surface have been determined. The distribution of bright albedo features is shown to be spatially uniform on the well known (i.e., observed by Mariner 10) and poorly known hemispheres, as well as for the global surface. The number densities of bright albedo features on the two hemispheres are very similar. This indicates that the late evolutionary history of the Hermean regolith has not varied on regional to global scales in terms of impacts generating bright ray craters, constituting approximately 70% of the detected bright albedo features. The locations of bright albedo features correspond well to those determined from nominal resolution and smeared (to the approximate resolution of the SVST data) Mariner 10 maps. Feature parameters (radius, center intensity and intensity gradient) have been determined and correlated with the geologic nature of a subset of observed features imaged by the Mariner 10 Vidicon camera. No difference in feature properties is apparent between the poorly known and well known hemispheres. Based on a comparitive study of Mariner 10 image data, ray craters tend to have higher center intensities and smaller intensity gradients than bright albedo features which are not ray craters. It is however concluded that it is not possible to uniquely determine the geologic nature of features with a high statistical significance, based on their morphological parameters at 200 km resolution. We do not find any general correlation between the locations of radar-bright and optically bright or dark albedo features. The surface contrast decreases from 35% to 25% over the wavelength range 550–940 nm. The range of feature contrasts is similar for all surface regions, except for the ray crater Kuiper, whose contrast to the mean surrounding surface is 50% at a wavelength of 750 nm. Kuiper is an extreme albedo feature also in terms of its center intensity and slope. The mean value of the Minnaert slope parameter for the global surface is determined to 0.76±0.10. A measured constant value of the Minnaert slope with wavelength indicates that the spectral slope for typical Hermean regolith should be linear over the wavelength range 550–940 nm.     

Warming permafrost in European mountains

Here we present the first systematic measurements of European mountain permafrost temperatures from a latitudinal transect of six boreholes extending from the Alps, through Scandinavia to Svalbard. Boreholes were drilled in bedrock to depths of at least 100 m between May 1998 and September 2000. Geothermal profiles provide evidence for regional-scale secular warming, since all are nonlinear, with near-surface warm-side temperature deviations from the deeper thermal gradient. Topographic effects lead to variability between Alpine sites. First approximation estimates, based on curvature within the borehole thermal profiles, indicate a maximum ground surface warming of +1 °C in Svalbard, considered to relate to thermal changes in the last 100 years. In addition, a 15-year time series of thermal data from the 58-m-deep Murtèl–Corvatsch permafrost borehole in Switzerland, drilled in creeping frozen ice-rich rock debris, shows an overall warming trend, but with high-amplitude interannual fluctuations that reflect early winter snow cover more strongly than air temperatures. Thus interpretation of the deeper borehole thermal histories must clearly take account of the potential effects of changing snow cover in addition to atmospheric temperatures.     

Latitudinal Variations of Diurnal Meteor Rates

The presence of a diurnal variation in meteor activity is well established. The sporadic meteor count rates are higher on the local dawn side and lower on the local dusk side. This phenomenon is caused by the Earth’s orbital motion and rotation. Meteor radar measurements have been compared from Esrange, Kiruna, Sweden, at 68° N, from Juliusruh, Germany, at 55° N, and from Ascension Island, at 8° S, to investigate how the diurnal variation depends on season at different latitudes. Data have been used from vernal and autumnal equinoxes and summer and winter solstices to locate the largest seasonal differences.     

The 0.7-5.3 μm IR spectra of Mercury and the Moon: Evidence for high-Ca clinopyroxene on Mercury

We present infrared spectra of Mercury and the Moon in the wavelength range 0.7-5.3 μm obtained with the SpeX spectrograph at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility. The spectra were acquired from pole and terminator locations of Mercury's surface and of Mersenius C and the Copernicus central peak on the Moon. Spectra of both bodies were measured in close temporal succession and were reduced in the same manner with identical calibration stars to minimize differences in the reduction process. The Copernicus spectra display the expected absorption features due to mafic minerals in the near infrared and show spectral features in the SiO combination/overtone vibrational band region above 4 μm. The spectra of Mercury from longitude 170° and north and south mid-latitudes display a 1-μm absorption band indicative of high-Ca clinopyroxene, while a spectrum from longitude 260° and northern mid-latitudes does not. The Mercury spectra show a broad feature of low emittance over the full 3-5 μm thermal infrared region, but no narrow features in this spectral range. The longitude 260° spectrum shows excess thermal emission around 5 μm attributable to the existence of a thermal gradient in the insolated dayside regolith. The thermal-IR spectra suggest a significant difference in the compositional and/or structural properties of Mercury and the Moon that may be due to grain size, absorption coefficient, or the magnitude of near-surface thermal gradients. The results indicate that the composition of Mercury's surface is heterogeneous on regional scales, and that the near infrared wavelength range provides more discriminative information on the surface composition than the 2-4 μm region, where the solar reflected and thermally emitted radiation contribute approximately equally to the observed flux of these bodies.     

Man-induced regime shifts in small estuaries—II: a comparison of rivers

This is Part II of two papers on man-induced regime shifts in small, narrow, and converging estuaries, with focus on the interaction between effective hydraulic drag, fine sediment import, and tidal amplification, induced by river engineering works, e.g., narrowing and deepening. Paper I describes a simple linear analytical model for the tidal movement in narrow, converging estuaries and a conceptual model on the response of tidal rivers to river engineering works. It is argued that such engineering works may set in motion a snowball effect bringing the river into an alternative steady state. Part II analyses the historic development in tidal range in four rivers, e.g., the Elbe, Ems, Loire, and Scheldt, all in northwest Europe; data are available for many decades, up to a century. We use the analytical model derived in Part I, showing that the effective hydraulic drag in the Ems and Loire has decreased considerably over time, as anticipated in Part I. We did not find evidence that the Upper Sea Scheldt is close to its tipping point towards hyperturbid conditions, but risks have been identified. In the Elbe, tidal reflections against the profound step in bed level around Hamburg seem to have affected the tidal evolution in the last decades. It is emphasized that the conceptual picture sketched in these papers is still hypothetical and needs to be validated, for instance through hind-cast modeling of the evolution of these rivers. This will not be an easy task, as historical data for a proper calibration of the models required are scarce.