The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

Broadband frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves across Bucharest, Romania

The determination of seismic amplitude amplification is a fundamental contribution to seismic hazard assessment. While often only high-frequency amplitude variations (>1 Hz) are taken into account, we analyse broadband waveforms from 0.14 to 8.6 Hz using a temporary network of 32 stations in and around the earthquake-prone city of Bucharest. Spectral amplitudes are calculated with an adaptive multiple-taper approach. Across our network (aperture 25 km × 25 km), we find a systematic northwest/southeast-oriented structural influence on teleseismic P-wave amplitudes from 0.14 to 0.86 Hz that can be explained by constructive interference in the dipping Cenozoic sedimentary layers. For higher frequencies (1.4–8.75 Hz), more local site effects prevail and can be correlated partly among neighbouring stations. The transition between systematic and localised amplitude variations occurs at about 1 Hz.     

Impacts of Methane on Carbon Dioxide Storage in Brine Formations

In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH₄). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO₂ competes with CH₄ in terms of dissolution, and CH₄ tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH₄ has a lower viscosity than injected CO₂, CH₄ is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH₄‐rich gas ahead of the CO₂ displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO₂ front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH₄ is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH₄ contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH₄‐CO₂ mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH₄‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO₂ injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects.     

Cladoceran community composition in tropical semi-arid highland reservoirs in Tigray (Northern Ethiopia): A metacommunity perspective applied to young reservoirs

A field survey of zooplankton communities was carried out in 32 recently established tropical semi-arid reservoirs in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia with the aim to identify to what extent environmental factors determine species composition of the cladoceran community in such isolated and young reservoirs. To address seasonal variation, the survey was carried out both at the beginning and the end of the dry season. A total of 15 species of cladocerans were identified. Daphnia was the most abundant cladoceran genus, and was present in all reservoirs. Using presence-absence data, no association between cladoceran community composition and geographic distance was found. RDA results indicate that the set of environmental variables that explained cladoceran community composition differed among seasons. Depth, altitude and fish biomass showed a significant association with cladoceran community composition during the wet season, whereas variation in cladoceran community structure was associated with phytoplankton biomass in the dry season. The relative abundance of Daphnia was much higher in the pelagic than in the littoral zone of our study systems. Two key groups of pelagic filter-feeding cladocerans, Diaphanosoma and Daphnia, showed a clear pattern, in which one or the other tended to strongly dominate the community. In addition, we observed a negative association between dominance of Daphnia in the zooplankton community and dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community.     

Computer-assisted teaching and learning in photogrammetry

The advanced personal computer models, new storage media such as CD-ROMs, new authoring tools and especially the Internet will influence the production of learning software for photogrammetry. Some examples of learning programs are presented, including experience from the development and use of these programs in the education of land surveyors. They demonstrate the progress made over the years as well as the potential and possibilities of computer-assisted teaching and learning in photogrammetry.     

Defining organominerals: Comment on ‘Defining biominerals and organominerals: Direct and indirect indicators of life’ by Perry et al. (2007, Sedimentary Geology, 201, 157–179)

The paper by Perry et al. (2007, Defining biominerals and organominerals: Direct and indirect indicators of life, Sedimentary Geology, 201, 157–179) proposes to introduce “the new term ‘organomineral’” to describe mineral products whose formation is induced by by-products of biological activity, dead and decaying organisms, or nonbiological organic compounds, to be distinguished from the biomineral components of living organisms. The substantive ‘organomineral’, however, is not new: it was first introduced in 1993, with basically the same definition and distinction from biominerals, at the 7th International Symposium on Biomineralization (Défarge and Trichet, 1995, From biominerals to ‘organominerals’: The example of the modern lacustrine calcareous stromatolites from Polynesian atolls, Bulletin de l'Institut Océanographique de Monaco, n° spéc. 14, vol. 2, pp. 265–271). Thereafter, more than twenty-five papers by various authors have been devoted to organominerals and organomineral formation (‘organomineralization’) processes. Only two of these papers are cited by Perry et al., and without any reference to the definitions, or even the terms ‘organomineral’ or ‘organomineralization’, which they included. Moreover, Perry et al. tend to enlarge the original concept of organomineral to encompass all minerals containing organic matter, whether these organic compounds are active or passive in the mineralization, which introduces ambiguities detrimental to a fine understanding of present and past geobiological processes. Finally, Perry et al. propose to consider organominerals as indirect biosignatures that could be used in the search for evidence of life in the geological record and extraterrestrial bodies. This latter proposition also is problematical, in that organominerals may be formed in association with prebiotic or abiotic organic matter.     

δ13C signature of early graphite and subsequently formed microdiamond from the Saxonian Erzgebirge,Germany

Microdiamond and graphite occur in quartzofeldspathic rocks (saidenbachites) of the central Erzgebirge in Saxony. Zircon from such rocks contains not only relatively high but also variable amounts of early formed graphite and later crystallized diamond, however no carbonate. Six purified zircon concentrates were analysed by mass spectrometry for δ₁₃C(PDB) values which were between −24 and −33‰. The carbon inclusions resulted in C contents of the concentrates as high as 0.5 wt%. It is hypothesized that the observed δ₁₃C signature results from organic material in the sedimentary protoliths of the saidenbachites probably deposited not earlier than Mid‐Devonian. This material was transformed to graphite during early metamorphism and subsequently to diamond after an anatectic event at great depths (>150 km). During these processes, the δ₁₃C signature of the carbon did not (significantly) change.