Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Assessment of cytochrome P450 1A in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) using a minimally-invasive biopsy approach

Biomarkers of organochlorine exposure, such as the induction of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A), can be used to assess the impact of environmental contaminants on the health of free-ranging marine mammal populations. The objective of the present study was to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies obtained from live harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). Twelve harbour seal pups, aged three to five weeks, were captured from the Fraser River estuary, British Columbia, Canada, and temporarily held in captivity. Skin ( approximately 60 mg) and liver ( approximately 40 mg) biopsies, obtained while seals were under general anaesthesia, yielded sufficient tissue for the measurement of CYP1A by immunoblot analysis and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activity. A short-term exposure experiment, in which harbour seals (n=3) were treated orally with beta-naphthoflavone (BNF), resulted in increased hepatic and cutaneous CYP1A protein levels, consistent with observations in other mammals. This study is the first to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies from live harbour seals and to report in vivo BNF-associated CYP1A induction in a marine mammal. The results demonstrate that microsamples collected using minimally-invasive techniques can provide toxicologically-relevant information form marine mammals.     

Summer distribution and geochemical composition of suspended-particulate matter in the east china sea

The distribution and geochemical composition of suspended-particulate matter (SPM) in the East China Sea (ECS) were investigated during the summer period of high continental runoff to elucidate SPM sources, distribution and cross-shelf transport. The spatial variability of SPM distribution (0.3–6.5 mg l⁻¹) and geochemical composition (POC, Al, Si, Fe, Mn, Ca, Mg and K) in the ECS was pronounced during summer when the continental fluxes of freshwater and terrestrial materials were highest during the year. Under the influences of Changjiang runoff, Kuroshio intrusion, surface production and bottom resuspension, the distribution generally showed strong gradients decreasing seaward for both biogenic and lithogenic materials. Particulate organic carbon was enriched in surface water (mean ∼18%) due to the influence of biological productivity, and was diluted by resuspended and/or laterally-transported materials in bottom water (mean 9.4%). The abundance of lithogenic elements (Al, Si, Fe, Mn) increased toward the bottom, and the distribution correlations were highly significant. Particulate CaCO₃ distribution provided evidence that the SPM of the bottom water in the northern part of the study area was likely mixed with sediments originally derived from Huanghe. A distinct benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) was present in all seaward transects of the ECS shelf. Sediment resuspension may be caused by tidal fluctuation and other forcing and be regarded as the principal agent in the formation of BNL. This BNL was likely responsible for the transport of biogenic and lithogenic particles across or along the ECS shelf. Total inventories of SPM, POC and PN are 46, 2.8 and 0.4 Tg, respectively, measured over the total area of 0.45 × 10⁶ km² of the ECS shelf. Their mean residence times are about 27, 13 and 11 days, respectively. The inventory of SPM in the water column was higher in the northernmost and southernmost transects and lower in the middle transects, reflecting the influences of terrestrial inputs from Changjiang and/or resuspended materials from Huanghe deposits in the north and perhaps from Minjiang and/or Taiwan’s rivers in the south. The distribution and transport patterns of SPM and geochemical elements strongly indicate that continental sources and cross-shelf transport modulate ECS particulate matter in summer.     

Co–rich Mn crusts from the Magellan Seamount cluster: the long journey through time

The Magellan seamounts began forming as large submarine shield volcanoes south of the equator during the Cretaceous. These volcanoes formed as a cluster on the small Pacific plate in a period when tectonic stress was absent. Thermal subsidence of the seafloor led to sinking of these volcanoes and the formation of guyots as the seamounts crossed the equatorial South Pacific (10–0°S) sequentially and ocean surface temperatures became too high for calcareous organisms to survive. Guyot formation was completed between about 59 and 45 Ma and the guyots became phosphatized at about 39–34 and 27–21 Ma. Ferromanganese crusts began formation as proto-crusts on the seamounts and guyots of the Magellan Seamount cluster towards the end of the Cretaceous up to 55 Ma after the formation of the seamounts themselves. The chemical composition of these crusts evolved over time in a series of steps in response to changes in global climate and ocean circulation. The great thickness of these crusts (up to 15–20 cm) reflects their very long period of growth. The high Co contents of the outer parts of the crusts are a consequence of the increasing deep circulation of the ocean and the resulting deepening of the oxygen minimum zone with time. Growth of the Co-rich Mn crusts in the Magellan Seamount cluster can be considered to be the culmination of a long journey through time.     

Estimating the geostrophic velocity obtained by HF radar observations in the upstream area of the Kuroshio

A method to extract geostrophic current in the daily mean HF radar data in the Kuroshio upstream region is established by comparison with geostrophic velocity determined from the along-track altimetry data. The estimated Ekman current in the HF velocity is 1.2% (1.5%) and 48° (38°)-clockwise rotated with respect to the daily mean wind in (outside) the Kuroshio. Furthermore, additional temporal smoothing is found necessary to remove residual ageostrophic currents such as the inertial oscillation. After removal of the ageostrophic components, the HF geostrophic velocity agrees well with that from the altimetry data with rms difference 0.14 (0.12) m/s in (outside) the Kuroshio.     

The origin and biogeochemistry of organic matter in surface sediments of Lake Shihwa and Lake Hwaong

To understand the origin and biogeochemistry of the organic matter in surface sediments of Lake Shihwa and Lake Hwaong, organic nitrogen, inorganic nitrogen, labile organic carbon, and residual organic carbon contents as well as stable isotope ratios for carbon and nitrogen were determined by KOBr-KOH treatment. Ratios of organic carbon to organic nitrogen (C_org/N_org) (mean = 24) were much higher than ratios of organic carbon to total nitrogen (C_org/N_tot) (mean=12), indicating the presence of significant amounts of inorganic nitrogen in the surface sediments of both lakes. Stable isotope ratios for organic nitrogen were, on average, 5.2‰ heavier than ratios of inorganic nitrogen in Lake Shihwa, but those same ratios were comparable in Lake Hwaong. This might be due to differences in the origin or the degree of degradation of sedimentary organic matter between the two lakes. In addition, stable isotope ratios for labile organic carbon were, on average, 1.4‰ heavier than those for residual organic carbon, reflecting the preferential oxidation of¹³C-enriched organic matter. The present study demonstrates that KOBr-KOH treatment of sedimentary organic matter can provide valuable information for understanding the origin and degradation state of organic matter in marine and brackish sediments. This also suggests that the ratio of C_org/N_org and stable isotope ratios for organic nitrogen can be used as indexes of the degree of degradation of organic matter.     

Effects of crab–halophytic plant interactions on creek growth in a S.W. Atlantic salt marsh: A Cellular Automata model

The Bahía Blanca Estuary (38° 50′ S, and 62° 30′ W) presents salt marshes where interactions between the local flora (Sarcocornia perennis) and fauna (Chasmagnathus granulatus) generate some kind of salt pans that alter the normal water circulation and condition its flow and course towards tidal creeks. The crab–vegetation dynamics in the salt marsh presents variations that cannot be quantified in a reasonable period of time. The interaction between S. perennis plant and C. granulatus crab is based on simple laws, but its result is a complex biological mechanism that causes an erosive process on the salt marsh and favors the formation of tidal creeks. To study it, a Cellular Automata model is proposed, based on the laws deduced from the observation of these phenomena in the field, and then verified with measurable data within macroscale time units. Therefore, the objective of this article is to model how the interaction between C. granulatus and S. perennis modifies the landscape of the salt marsh and influences the path of tidal creeks. The model copies the basic laws that rule the problem based on purely biological factors.The Cellular Automata model proved capable of reproducing the effects of the interaction between plants and crabs in the salt marsh. A study of the water drainage of the basins showed that this interaction does indeed modify the development of tidal creeks. Model dynamics would likewise follow different laws, which would provide a different formula for the probability of patch dilation. The patch shape can be obtained changing the pattern that dilates.     

Remote sensing and surface POC concentration in the South Atlantic

Several SeaWiFS products have been compared with shipboard data to assess the possibility of using remote sensing to estimate particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration in surface waters. Transmissometer data were collected during six South Atlantic Ventilation Experiment (SAVE) hydrographic expeditions conducted between November 1987 and March 1989 from R/V Knorr, and Melville. A total of 361 beam attenuation profiles were made with a SeaTech transmissometer interfaced with a CTD/rosette. In order to calculate the POC concentration from transmissometer profiles, a regression between beam attenuation and POC for open Atlantic Ocean waters derived from our research in the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, NABE) and enhanced by data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Station (BATS) was applied. The profiles were processed and examined as vertical sections of the surface 250 m. The data were collected in two successive years, during the same season, which allowed us to compile a combined data set over the austral summer for examination. Beam attenuation/POC concentrations were integrated down to one attenuation depth with the intent of making comparisons with satellite optical data. No satellite optical data were available for 1987–1989, so the only option was to compare our integrated data with SeaWiFS-derived variables from later years averaged over the same season as SAVE data. Analysis of four SeaWiFS products acquired from 1997 to 2002 demonstrated very low variations from year to year for seasonally averaged data, suggesting that making comparisons of the beam attenuation/POC fields with averaged satellite optical products from later years is a valid (though not optimal) approach for this area. The highest correlation between beam attenuation/POC concentration and remotely derived products was found with normalized water-leaving radiance at 555 nm. Other SeaWiFS-derived variables—chlorophyll concentration, diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm and integral chlorophyll (integrated over one attenuation depth)—were also compared but showed a slightly less satisfactory correlation.     

The mysid Siriella armata as a test organism in toxicology: Effects of cadmium

A shrimp-like crustacean of the coastal Zooplankton in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, the mysid Siriella armata, offers a test organism whose life cycle is entirely controllable under laboratory conditions. The effects of the heavy metal cadmium were studied on adults and juveniles cultured in the laboratory including acute toxicity, bioaccumulation and effects on growth, ingestion and moult cycle.