Multifractal analysis as a tool for validating a rainfall model

A multifractal analysis was carried out in order to validate the simulation of hourly rainfall records of a local climate model for the Iberian Peninsula. Observed and simulated hourly rainfall data from four locations in Andalusia (southern Spain) were used to carry out the study. In order to detect the influence of the length of the data series on the results, two different sizes were used for the real data: 4 years, and 20 years. The results show that algebraic tails are required to fit the probability distribution of extreme rain event sizes, and rain and dry event durations for both kinds of rainfall data. Similar results are found for the extreme rain event sizes and dry event durations fits when the real and synthetic data are considered. Nevertheless, some differences appear in the cases of rain event durations. The detection of the presence of a first‐order multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moment scaling exponent function and the results of the extreme rain event sizes fits, reveal that real rainfall is a self‐organized criticality (SOC) process. That behaviour is less evident in the simulated rainfall series. The same ‘synoptic maximum’ value was found for each place with both types of rainfall data. A time clustering analysis was carried out applying the count‐based periodogram and the Fano factor methods. Some periodicities have been detected in the periodograms, especially for the longest real rainfall data series. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Late‐glacial chironomid record from Hawes Water,northwest England

This paper presents the results of a high‐resolution Late‐glacial chironomid stratigraphy from Hawes Water, a small carbonate lake in northern Lancashire. The samples were from a core taken from the terrestrialised margin of the present lake, which represents an intermediate depth between the true littoral and the profundal. The chironomid assemblage showed a high degree of sensitivity to both broad‐scale and short‐term temperature changes. Comparison with an existing proxy temperature record (δ¹⁸O) for the site confirmed the presence of four temperature inversions within the Late‐glacial Interstadial. A mean July air temperature inference model, derived from acid, soft‐water lakes in Norway and Svalbard, was applied to the data. Despite the absence of carbonate lakes within the Norwegian training set, there was a close similarity between trends in estimated July air temperature and the δ¹⁸O trace, with a particularly strong correspondence in the periods of clay deposition. This suggests that this model is highly robust. The inferred maximum Interstadial temperature was 13.4°C, dropping initially to 7.5°C in the Loch Lomond Stadial. Temperatures reach a maximum of nearly 10°C in this period, cool for a short period before rising rapidly to 13.2°C at the start of the Holocene. These temperatures are similar to but slightly higher than those estimated for Whitrig Bog, southeast Scotland, and lower than those inferred from coleopteran‐based models for sites in South Wales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probable Neolithic footprints preserved in inter-tidal peat at Kenfig, South Wales (UK)

Holocene footprints have been reported from several locations around the UK coast preserved within inter-tidal sediments. These sediments are normally fine-grained silts, sands and clays. Here we report potential human footprints preserved in the lower of two inter-tidal peat units exposed on the foreshore at Kenfig in South Wales. The lower peat layer pre-dates 3810 ± 40 BP and its maximum age is constrained by two dates, one of 4930 ± 50 BP and another of 5110 ± 50 BP. The prints may have formed at any point within this time interval. Both peat units formed in a salt marsh, or fen environment, as indicated by the analysis of both diatoms and pollen and have been tentatively assigned to the middle Wentlooge Formation within the Holocene lithostratigraphy established for the Severn Estuary Holocene sequence. The footprints were digitised using an optical laser scanner and are compared to other Holocene human footprints exposed on the Sefton Coast in North West England. In comparison the Kenfig prints have poor anatomical form which may be the result of both the substrate and post-depositional modification. The paper demonstrates the value of using optical laser scanning in the data capture and analysis of transitory archaeological and geological trace evidence.     

Groundwater recharge in irrigated semi-arid areas: quantitative hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis

For semi-arid regions, methods of assessing aquifer recharge usually consider the potential evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration rates can be below potential rates for long periods of time, even in irrigated systems. Accurate estimations of aquifer recharge in semi-arid areas under irrigated agriculture are essential for sustainable water-resources management. A method to estimate aquifer recharge from irrigated farmland has been tested. The water-balance-modelling approach was based on VisualBALAN v. 2.0, a computer code that simulates water balance in the soil, vadose zone and aquifer. The study was carried out in the Campo de Cartagena (SE Spain) in the period 1999–2008 for three different groups of crops: annual row crops (lettuce and melon), perennial vegetables (artichoke) and fruit trees (citrus). Computed mean-annual-recharge values (from irrigation+precipitation) during the study period were 397 mm for annual row crops, 201 mm for perennial vegetables and 194 mm for fruit trees: 31.4, 20.7 and 20.5% of the total applied water, respectively. The effects of rainfall events on the final recharge were clearly observed, due to the continuously high water content in soil which facilitated the infiltration process. A sensitivity analysis to assess the reliability and uncertainty of recharge estimations was carried out.     

Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Secular variations in the spectrum of solar p-modes

The solar p-mode spectrum of very low I is measured with high accuracy for a long enough period of time so as to allow the search for solar cycle variations. In this paper solar cycle variations of the frequency and energy of the modes are confirmed. Moreover, a slight variation,within errors, of its rotational splitting with the solar cycle, is suggested.     

Aquifer Characterization Using Fiber Bragg Grating Multi-Level Monitoring System

Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey.     

Long-Term Evolution of the Seismic Activity Preceding the 2015 Seismic Crisis at Deception Island Volcano,Antarctica (2008-2015)

Surveys in Geophysics - Deception Island is an active volcano located in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica. Although the last eruptions occurred in 1967-1970, the volcano has undergone periods...