2011年初湖南暴雪过程的成因和数值模拟分析

利用多种观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2011年1月1720日湖南一次大范围暴雪过程进行了诊断分析,并使用WRF模式对其云微物理特征及降水相态转换机制进行数值模拟,旨在探讨本次强雨雪过程降水相态变化和暴雪形成及其发展成因。结果表明：乌拉尔山前部南下的冷空气与来自孟加拉湾及南海的暖湿气流在湖南长时间交汇产生锋生强迫,在静止锋区上界形成强辐合上升运动,是湖南大范围暴雪天气持续的主要原因;强烈的上升运动和持续的水汽辐合为本次暴雪过程提供了动力、水汽条件,“冷空气楔”上爬升的暖湿气流维持时间较长,是持续性大范围暴雪产生的重要热力条件;WRF模式能较好地模拟降雪量级及强降雪落区。雪粒子的产生和发展不仅与液水比含量大小有关,还与其上空冰晶的含量及分布密切相关,雪的凝华增长、冰晶向雪的自动转化和雨水与雪碰并成雪可能是本次降雪发生、发展最主要的物理过程,冰雪粒子大值中心及强上升运动区对预报强降雪带位置有较好的指示作用。     

昆明地区气象条件变化与脑血管疾病的联系

对昆明市气象资料及近年来市内两家大型医院脑血管病住院人数进行了对比分析,结果表明,昆明市特有的气象条件变化使得脑血管疾病季节性发病率不同于内地其他地区,出血性脑血管病和缺血性脑血管病在四季均有多发月份,这可能与气候温和地区人们对极端气候适应能力较弱有关.     

黄淮海地区1961~2006年干湿状况时空变化

自20世纪60年代以来,黄淮海地区的气候出现了降水减少、气温升高的变化趋势,分析气象要素之间的关系及其变化规律,对于合理规划水资源,保障经济可持续发展具有积极的意义.利用干燥度指数对该地区的干湿状况进行了分析,将该地区划分为湿润、半湿润、半湿润半干旱、半干旱半湿润和半干旱5个干湿气候区,其中以半干旱区范围最大.不同干湿类型区域间有明显的纬向分布特征,地势起伏亦对于湿区域的空间分布产生影响.对季节间干湿状况差异分析结果表明,该地区以夏季最为湿润,而冬春两季最为干燥.对年代间干湿状况变化分析表明,20世纪60年代和80年代半干旱区的范围相对较大,80年代半湿润和半湿润半干旱区的范围最大.对逐年干燥度变化趋势的分析表明,随着时间的推移.黄淮海地区干湿区域间的差异有变得更加显著的趋势,即半干旱区干燥度指数逐渐增大,而半湿润和湿润区的干燥度指数趋向减小.     

东亚季风指数的定义及其与中国气候的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR 850 hPa月平均风场再分析资料,在客观地选定定义地区范围的基础上;定义了一组新的东亚季风指数:西南季风面积和强度指数,东南季风面积和强度指数,偏北季风面积和强度指数.研究了各季风指数的相互关系、季节变化和年际变异.这6个东亚季风指数突出反映了东亚西南季风、东南季风及偏北季风3支季风气流强度和范围变化的特征.分析表明,它们相互之间既有一定联系,又有独立性.各季风指数存在明显的季节变化和年际变化.另外,分析了各季风指数与中国夏季降水和冬季气温的联系,以考察其解释我国气候异常分布的能力.结果表明,这些指数与我国夏季降水和冬季气温有很好的关系,并各自对应有一定的降水和气温分布.特别是西南季风与东南季风影响我国夏季降水的地区有很大差异.因此,我们指出,研究东亚夏季风时,区别西南季风与东南季风是很有必要的,用单一指数不足以表征它们不同的变化.     

豫西突发性暴雨成因

利用常规观测、FY-2C气象卫星资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2007年7月28～30日豫西卢氏县引发历史罕见山洪暴雨的进行了天气动力学和中尺度分析。结果表明:西太平洋副热带高压增强与贝加尔湖高压叠加形成阻塞形势,其西侧低空急流携带大量水汽与较强的锋生场交汇在豫西,导致了这次极端暴雨事件的发生;大尺度强斜升运动区中,低层存在一个条件性对称不稳定机制,引发中β云团生成、合并、发展,从而造成暴雨。     

气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估

以南水北调中线工程典型流域汉江上游流域和滦河流域为研究对象,采用敏感性分析法、降水?径流双累积曲线法、累积量斜率变化率比较法定量评估了气候波动和人类活动对流域径流变化的影响。结果表明：汉江上游流域和滦河流域变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期年均径流深相对于基准期分别减少了29.5% / 19.1%和49.8% / 70.0%;对于汉江上游流域,1991-1999年（变异Ⅰ期）气候波动是径流减少的主要影响因素,2000-2008年（变异Ⅱ期）人类活动则是径流减少的主要影响因素,且人类活动对汉江上游流域径流减少的影响逐步增加;对于滦河流域,1980-2010年（变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期）人类活动一直是径流减少的主要影响因素,且气候波动和人类活动对径流减少的影响贡献率基本保持不变。     

三峡库区秭归与巴东交界Ms4.0地震矩张量及应力环境研究

三峡库区湖北秭归与巴东交界地区2013年以来发生5次Ms4.0以上地震.本文基于湖北、重庆等省属13个测震台站宽频带波形数据,采用kiwi软件包和rapidinv12程序反演了这些地震的全矩张量解,结果显示所有地震双力偶解均为走滑兼逆断性质,两个节面走向、倾角、滑动角与P、T轴走向和倾俯角的一致性均较好,主压应力P轴N...     

邻近算法在微地震震源位置和一维速度模型同时反演中的应用

微地震事件的空间分布可以用来监测水力压裂过程中裂缝的发育情况.因此,震源定位是微震监测中重要的环节.震源定位依赖准确的速度模型,而震源位置和速度模型的耦合易导致线性迭代的同时反演方法陷入局部极小值.邻近算法作为一种非线性全局优化算法,能够最大程度地避免陷入局部最优解.本文将邻近算法应用于单井监测的微震定位和一维速度模型...     

RESIDUAL POST-IR IRSL SIGNALS OF POTASSIUM FELDSPAR FROM MODERN SAG POND DEPOSITS OF CENTRAL ALTYN TAGH FAULT: IMPLICATION FOR DATING YOUNG PALEOSEISMIC EVENTS

The Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF)is one of the most prominent active strike-slip faults in the India-Eurasia collision. Fresh features of surface ruptures, which are attributed to seismic events taking place in the last millennium, are identified at several sites along the Che'erchen River to Qingshui River section on the central part of ATF. Accurate chronology of these earthquake events would help understand the spatial-temporal relationship of the recent earthquakes. However, great difficulties are encountered. The central ATF is located in the arid area, and the vegetation cover is so limited that rare organic materials appropriate for radiocarbon dating can be found in the sediments. Luminescence dating technique may serve as an alternative to directly determine the burial ages of the earthquake related sediments. The optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)signal of quartz, which has been widely employed for luminescence dating, displays unwanted charateristics for accurate dating. Firstly, the quartz OSL signal is not sensitive to irradiation, which leads to low signal-to-noise ratio or even no measurable quartz OSL signal. Secondly, the targeted samples of the last millennium are very young, and the radiation dose received during the burial is expected to be less than 3~4Gy, which futher deteriorates the signal-to-noise ratio of the quartz OSL signal. Therefore, quartz OSL signal is not appropriate for dating the sediments relevant to the recent earthquakes on ATF.
The infrared stimulated luminescence(IRSL)signal of potassium feldspar is an alternative, and it is in usual an order of maginitude more sensitive to raidation than the quartz OSL signal. The enhanced signal-to-noise ratio makes it applicable to young samples. The post-IR IRSL signal has been successfully applied to date the sediments beyond the Holocene, however, the relatively slow bleaching of the post-IR IRSL signal poses challenges on applying it to young sediments, especially for the sediments deposited during the last millennium. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using post-IR IRSL signal from potassium feldspar to date the earthquake events of the last millennium by employing modern sag pond deposits with different sorting and expected equivalent dose(D_e)of 0Gy. Choosing an appropriate measurement procedure and identifying the well bleached pottassium feldspar grains are essential for post-IR IRSL dating of young sediments. The non-fading characteristic of the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ signal measured at 170℃ following a prior IR stimulation at 110℃ was verified by employing the D_e plateau test with respect to the signal integration interval and IR stimulation temperature together. Reducing the amount of potassium feldspar grains mounted on an aliquot would help reveal the among grains variation of bleaching level of post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ signal before depostion and identify the most sufficiently bleached grains. Therefore, the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ D_e values of 2mm aliquots were measured for three samples with different sedimentary textures. The median of D_e distribution of well sorted and stratified sag pond deposits is consistent with the minimum D_e value inferred from the minimum age model(MAM-3) and finite mixture model(FMM), while for the poorly sorted deposits, the median is significantly overestimated compared with the minimum D_e values from the MAM-3 and the FMM. The minimum D_e values of 0.6~0.8Gy of all three samples are consistent with the unbleachable residual dose previously reported for post-IR IRSL signals measured at similar temperature for well bleached samples. It implies that by combined use of small aliquot and statistical age models, the well-bleached potassium feldspar grains could be identified. Such an intrinsic unbleachable component needs to be properly corrected when earthquake events of last millennium are to be dated in this area. Otherwise, the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ age would be overestimated by 200~300a.
The post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ procedure investigated in this study is not only applicable for dating the paleoearthquake events along the Altyn Tagh Fault, but also with great potential to be applied to other tectonically active area. With consideration of the potential variability in post-IR IRSL signal characteristics of potassium feldspar grains from different origins, the signal stability needs to be routinely inspected. The modern analog sample would also be informative for justifying the measurement procedure and analytical method employed.     

华北地区跨断层流动形变监测场地优化初探

首先分析了华北地区跨断层流动形变监测场地布测现状及监测效能,继而依据跨断层流动形变测量规范及监测的可控性、均匀性、目的性以及监测场地监测效能等,结合该区域断裂活动及地震活动性研究结果,给出华北地区跨断层流动形变监测场地拟优化布设结果。该优化布设结果消除了华北地区跨断层流动形变网监测地震活动盲区,有助于提高该区跨断层流动形变网监测地震活动能力。