干盐湖阶段的沉积特征兼论钾盐矿层的形成

盐盆地演化到析钾阶段时,广袤的干盐滩与若干卤水湖并存。这种特殊的地质地埋背景称为“干盐湖”。察尔汉盆地是现代干盐湖的一个典型实例。由于选择性溶解作用使钾富集在水位最低的卤水湖内,并在干盐滩与卤水湖之间的平坦湖滨地带形成钾盐层。成钾机理与现代海滨萨布哈类似,但钾-镁盐类来源于干盐滩内的孔隙(晶间)卤水。     

印度洋偶极子对中国南海夏季西南季风水汽输送的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中科院大气物理研究所PIAP3大气环流模式,分析了印度洋偶极子对夏季中国南海西南季风水汽输送的影响。结果表明,印度洋偶极子正位相期间夏季中国南海西南水汽输送较强,负位相期间则较弱。原因可归结为以下:正位相期间,MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）多活动于热带西印度洋,其向东传播受到阻碍,但经向传播明显,通常可传播至孟加拉湾地区,同时PIAP3显示印度洋季风槽位置偏北,且印尼以西过赤道气流较强,从而使得这一地区气旋性环流得到建立与加强。孟加拉湾地区对应着较强的对流活动以及深厚积云对流加热,从而通过对流加热的二级热力响应使西太平洋副热带高压位置向北推进,进而使得南海地区西南季风水汽输送得到建立与加强。在此期间孟加拉湾、中南半岛至南海地区对流活动较强,而苏门答腊沿岸对流活动受到抑制,由此增强了Reverse-Hadley环流,使低层经向风较强,进而增强了南海西南季风的水汽输送,PIAP3大气环流模式证实了Reverse-Hadley环流的增强。负位相期间,MJO多活动于热带东印度洋,在东传过程中受到Walker环流配置影响,在140°E赤道附近形成东西向非对称积云对流加热热源,其东侧Kelvin波响应加强了东风异常并配合副热带高压南缘东风压制了中国南海的西南季风水汽输送。在此期间,MJO在南海地区的经向传播较强,但经向传播常止步于南海地区15°N附近,虽携带大量水汽,但深厚积云对流强烈地消耗水汽使大气中水汽含量降低,PIAP3大气环流模式证实负位相期间深厚积云对流对水汽消耗加大,从而使得负位相期间南海地区水汽含量与正位相期间大体相近,但由于经向风不足使水汽向北输送较弱。     

The China Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System and Its Application to Flood-Season Prediction in 2018

Multi-model ensemble prediction is an effective approach for improving the prediction skill short-term climate prediction and evaluating related uncertainties. Based on a combination of localized operation outputs of Chinese climate models and imported forecast data of some international operational models, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration has established the China multi-model ensemble prediction system version 1.0 (CMMEv1.0) for monthly-seasonal prediction of primary climate variability modes and climate elements. We verified the real-time forecasts of CMMEv1.0 for the 2018 flood season (June-August) starting from March 2018 and evaluated the 1991-2016 hindcasts of CMMEv1.0. The results show that CMMEv1.0 has a significantly high prediction skill for global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. Additionally, its prediction skill for the North Atlantic SST triple (NAST) mode is high, but is relatively low for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Moreover, CMMEv1.0 has high skills in predicting the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the June-July-August (JJA) season. The JJA air temperature in the CMMEv1.0 is predicted with a fairly high skill in most regions of China, while the JJA precipitation exhibits some skills only in northwestern and eastern China. For real-time forecasts in March-August 2018, CMMEv1.0 has accurately predicted the ENSO phase transition from cold to neutral in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and captures evolutions of the NAST and IOD indices in general. The system has also captured the main features of the summer WPSH and EASM indices in 2018, except that the predicted EASM is slightly weaker than the observed. Furthermore, CMMEv1.0 has also successfully predicted warmer air temperatures in northern China and captured the primary rainbelt over northern China, except that it predicted much more precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than observation.     

Debris flows in the Lushan earthquake area: formation characteristics,rainfall conditions,and evolutionary tendency

Debris flows often occur in the mountainous watersheds of earthquake-affected areas, and in the Lushan earthquake area of southwestern China, they have become a significant hazard. In this study, the influencing factors and spatial distribution of debris flows were analyzed through a review of their occurrence history. Debris flows are mainly distributed in the northwestern part of the study area, which hosts the greatest density of active faults. The debris flows are generally formed by the ‘progressive bulking’ effect in channels, and deep incision, lateral erosion, and blockage breaking are common processes that amplify the magnitude of such debris flows. Rainfall thresholds for different types of debris flow were proposed to explain the spatial differences between debris-flow regions, and the temporal variations of those thresholds highlighted how the rainfall conditions required for the occurrence of debris flows have changed. Natural vegetation recovery, reduction in the availability of solid material, and artificial debris-flow control projects play important roles in raising the threshold of the rainfall conditions required for triggering debris flows.

     

盆地对三分量地震动持时的影响初探

利用关东盆地及其周边KiK-net台网井上台站记录的2004—2017年15次中强地震（矩震级为5.1～6.9级）构建三分量记录显著持时Ds_5-95数据库。针对该数据库,基于残差分析方法和3种水平向地震动持时参数预测方程,计算并给出事件间残差和事件内残差及其随不同类别参数的变化。在此基础上,初步探讨了水平向地震动持时预测方程应用于预测竖向地震动持时的可行性及盆地对三分量地震动持时的影响。研究结果表明,对于震源距和场地V_S30相当的情况,盆地内台站持时普遍大于盆地外台站持时,盆地内、外台站竖向地震动持时均大于水平向地震动持时;3种预测方程均可实现对盆地外台站水平向地震动Ds_5-95的合理估计,但在一定程度上低估了盆地内台站的水平向地震动Ds_5-95;3种预测方程均无法直接应用于竖向地震动持时预测。     

宜居黄河科学构想

黄河问题表象于河,形成于域,根植于地。针对于黄河流域高质量发展面临的地球科学问题特点及挑战,本文提出了“宜居黄河”科学构想,旨在构建一个包括“安全黄河”、“绿色黄河”、“生态黄河”、“和谐黄河”和“智慧黄河”5大核心内容的体系完善的宜居黄河研究科学架构,并对这5个方面的科学内涵和关键研究内容进行了阐述。其中,(1)安全黄河立足于工程地质学,研究黄河流域地质地表过程及其灾害效应,以保障地质安全需求,构建安全黄河体系;(2)绿色黄河立足于水文地质学,研究黄河流域水循环过程及其水土环境变化效应,构建绿色黄河体系;(3)生态黄河立足于环境地质学,研究黄河流域生态系统演化规律及其生态屏障效应,构建生态黄河体系;(4)和谐黄河立足于资源地质学,研究黄河流域资源开发与人地协调的发展模式,构建和谐黄河体系;(5)智慧黄河立足于大数据及信息科学,研究黄河流域地学信息集成与智慧决策平台,构建智慧黄河体系。这5个部分相互支撑融合,共同解决宜居黄河的核心关键问题,从而为保障黄河长治久安、促进全流域高质量发展,最终形成造福中华民族的“幸福黄河”起到科技支撑作用。     

黄土高原滑坡灾害形成动力学机制

滑坡灾害是威胁黄土高原人民生命和财产安全、城镇与重大工程建设与运营的重大地质问题。针对黄土高原滑坡灾害形成的动力学机制问题,在大量的调查统计、试验与理论分析基础上,总结得出区域构造应力是黄土高原滑坡高发的主要驱动力,它是滑坡分区分带群发的控制因素,是黄土滑坡的"第一元凶";边坡构造应力既造就了结构面,又不断地改造和松动着结构面,持续地肢解着边坡的完整性,它是单体滑坡形成的主要驱动力,是黄土滑坡的"第二元凶";黄土是一种特殊的结构土,具有极强的水敏性,在土体应力驱动下极易灾变,黄土的这种易灾特性是土体灾变的内在原因,是黄土滑坡的"第三元凶";大量的滑坡发生都与水有关,地表水大量渗入黄土浅表部,会引起浅表崩塌和溜滑灾害,而当水沿着微、细、宏观优势通道进入黄土深部后,就可能引起深层滑坡,因此,动水渗透作用是黄土滑坡的"主凶";工程扰动既会改变边坡原有的应力状态,进而扩展和松动已有的结构面,现今,工程扰动已经成为一种诱发地质灾害的重要地质营力,是黄土滑坡的"帮凶"。      

改进的两步法在地震动衰减关系建立中的应用

地震动衰减关系系数的回归是地震动衰减关系研究中一项关键的技术,由于地震动衰减公式具有震级与距离相关性和地震动参数本身的不确定性较大等特点,一般迭代回归方法难以满足回归精度的要求.目前常用的回归方法有单随机变量加权最小二乘法、多随机变量加权最小二乘法、两步法、新两步法等;在上述方法中,两步法和新两步法虽然考虑了震级和距离相关性的特点,但回归系数的稳定性较差.因此,在两步法思想的基础上提出了既能考虑震级和距离相关性,又能提高回归系数的稳定性的一种新方法-改进的两步法.     

近几十年青藏高原与华北地区地表太阳辐射变化特征及其影响因素的对比分析

地表太阳总辐射具有较大的时空变化特征,不同地区的影响因素也存在显著差异。本文利用1961—2016年青藏高原与华北地区的地表太阳总辐射资料,在进行严格的质量控制和均一化处理的基础上,深入分析了两个地区总辐射的年际变化趋势,同时结合云量和气溶胶光学厚度观测资料,探讨了两个地区总辐射变化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)1961—2016年青藏高原和华北地区总辐射总体呈下降趋势,但2008年后青藏高原西部和东部地区总辐射变化趋势相反,而华北地区站点总辐射均呈上升趋势。(2)青藏高原西部地区总辐射的下降主要受到云量变化的影响,而东部地区低云量和气溶胶的下降是总辐射上升的重要原因。(3)在2006—2016年,华北地区总辐射的变化受气溶胶的影响更加显著。