气溶胶光学厚度谱特征判断粒子大小方法初探

当气溶胶谱满足Junge分布时,Angstrom指数 (α) 可以准确地描述粒子大小,但真实大气气溶胶很少完全满足这一条件,仅用α判断粒子大小会有较大出入。基于北京、香河、兴隆、太湖4个Aeronet观测站21世纪以来各站历时都超过1年的气溶胶光学厚度资料,获得5511组lnτ与lnλ的二次拟合参数a₂,a₁,尝试找到一种结合α,a₂,a₁判断粒子大小的方法。结果表明:当气溶胶为粗粒子时 (V_fine/V_total＜0.2),α均小于0.75,仅用α就可以较好地判断粒子大小,但当气溶胶以细粒子为主时 (V_fine/V_total＞0.7),该方法会有较大出入,此时a₂,a₁可以有效地辅助α判断粒子大小,α＞0.75,a₂＜-0.5或a₂＜-0.5,a₁＜-1.0是较好的判据。此外,分析发现国外研究提出的用a₂-a₁判断粒子大小的方法效果并不理想,尤其在1＜a₂-a₁＜2的情况下,粒子的组成有多种可能。     

弹性层状半空间中无限长洞室对斜入射 平面SH波的三维散射(Ⅱ) 数值结果与分析

以基岩上单一土层场地为例, 计算分析了在斜入射平面SH波作用下弹性层状半空间中无限长洞室附近的地表位移. 研究表明, 层状半空间中地下洞室对波的散射与均匀半空间情况存在显著差别. 层状场地由于考虑了场地自身的动力特性, 使得洞室附近地表位移幅值的空间变化更为复杂, 基岩与土层刚度比、 土层厚度对散射效应均有着重要影响. 随着基岩与土层刚度比的增大, 地表位移幅值整体上逐渐增大; 随着土层厚度的增大, 土层对地表位移幅值的影响逐渐减小. 在频域解答的基础上, 给出了层状半空间中洞室对斜入射SH波散射的时域解答, 并以Ricker波为例进行了数值计算.      

The Asymmetric Atmospheric Response to the Decadal Variability of Kuroshio Extension during Winter

The Kuroshio extension(KE)exhibits interdecadal variability,oscillating from a stable state to an unstable state.In this paper,ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to discuss the possible reasons for the asymmetric response of the atmosphere to symmetric sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)during periods of differential KE states.The analysis has the following results:the SSTA presents a nearly symmetrical distribution with opposite signs during the KE stable and unstable periods.During the KE stable period,the storm track is located north of 40°N and is significantly enhanced in the northeast Pacific Ocean.The atmospheric response is similar to the West Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation teleconnection(WP/NPO like pattern)and presents a barotropic structure.The inversion results of the potential vorticity equation show that the feedback of transient eddy vorticity manifests a WP/NPO like pattern and presents a barotropic structure,which is the main reason for bringing about the response of the WP/NPO like pattern.The magnitude of the feedbacks of both diabatic heating and transient eddy heating is small,which can offset one another.During the KE unstable period,the main body of the storm track is located to the south of 40°N,and there is no significant response signal in the atmosphere,except near the west coast of North America.Compared with the KE stable period,the asymmetry of response of the transient eddy vorticity is the main reason for the asymmetric response of the atmosphere.     

A hybrid inversion method of damped least squares with simulated annealing used for Rayleigh wave dispersion curve inversion

Surface wave methods are becoming increasingly popular in many geotechnical applications and in earthquake seismology due to their noninvasive characteristics.Inverse surface wave dispersion curves are a crucial step in most surface wave methods.Many inversion methods have been applied to surface wave dispersion curve inversion,including linearized inversion and nonlinearized inversion methods.In this study,a hybrid inversion method of Damped Least Squares(DLS) with Very Fast Simulated Annealing(VFSA) is developed for multi-mode Rayleigh wave dispersion curve inversion.Both synthetic and in situ fi eld data were used to verify the validity of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method is superior to the conventional VFSA method in aiming at global minimum,especially when parameter searching space is adjacent to real values of the parameters.The advantage of the new method is that it retains both the merits of VFSA for global search and DLS for local search.At high temperatures,the global search dominates the runs,while at a low temperatures,the local search dominates the runs.Thus,at low temperatures,the proposed method can almost directly approach the actual model.     

Decadal Features of Heavy Rainfall Events in Eastern China

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.     

空间日冕观测进展

近年来Ｙｏｈｋｏｎ,ＳＯＨＯ和Ｕｌｙｓｓｅｓ等飞船的上天大大提高了日冕观测的范围和精度。如ＳＯＨＯ上的ＬＡＳＣＯ使日冕可观测范围扩展到１．１－３０Ｒ并有分光能力;Ｕｌｙｓｓｅｓ则可以取得黄道面外各纬度处的太阳风实地观测数据。这些资料为日冕物态研究提供了大量有用信息：Ｙｏｈｋｏｈ的软Ｘ射线观测发现了大尺度冕环重联的证据;     

A numerical study of the interaction between two simultaneous storms: Goni and Morakot in September 2009

Significant anomalous tracks were observed when the severe tropical storm Goni(0907) and typhoon Morakot(0908) in September 2009 were evaluated in short distances.The relationship between the two is regarded as a case of binary interaction.Based on an MM5 model(fifth-generation mesoscale model of Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research),in this study a series of sensitivity experiments were designed to determine the binary interaction between them.The sensitivity of the storm characteristics to the binary interaction was demonstrated through modeling experiments with different TC intensities and sizes based on the bogus vortices initialization.Furthermore,the contributions of large-scale environmental flow and the effects of interaction between the motions of the cyclones were distinguished by numerical experiments using only one of the TC vortices.Results from these experiments show that Morakot(0908) had a greater impact on the motion of Goni(0907),whereas Goni(0907) had a relatively limited impact on Morakot(0908).At the upper level,the northeasterly jet flow in the third quadrant of Morakot(0908) enhanced the upper-level divergence of Goni(0907) and had an important role in maintaining and increasing Goni’s(0907) intensity.And at the lower level,Morakot(0908),with strong convergence and ascending airflow,made a stable transport channel of southwesterly warm and wet flow,thus supporting the lower-level water vapor convergence of Goni(0907).Goni(0907),which was located upriver of the southwesterly flow,intercepted part of the water vapor transportation in the southwesterly flow,causing the water vapor convergence to strengthen while the water vapor convergence of Morakot(0908) weakened.     

A statistical downscaling scheme to improve global precipitation forecasting

Based on hindcasts obtained from the “Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction” (DEMETER) project, this study proposes a statistical downscaling (SD) scheme suitable for global precipitation forecasting. The key idea of this SD scheme is to select the optimal predictors that are best forecast by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and that have the most stable relationships with observed precipitation. Developing the prediction model and further making predictions using these predictors can extract useful information from the CGCMs. Cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that this SD scheme can significantly improve the prediction capability of CGCMs during the boreal summer (June–August), even over polar regions. The predicted and observed precipitations are significantly correlated, and the root-mean-square-error of the SD scheme-predicted precipitation is largely decreased compared with the raw CGCM predictions. An inter-model comparison shows that the multi-model ensemble provides the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble with the SD scheme can improve the prediction skill for precipitation globally, which is valuable for current operational precipitation prediction.     

基于幅频分离的气候时间序列预测试验

从气候波动的瞬时频率与瞬时振幅出发,结合最小二乘支持向量机技术,提出了基于幅频分离技术的气候时间序列预测方法,并对南京地区降水距平进行了30候的预测试验。结果表明,幅频分离预测法能够对所有模态的振幅和高频模态的瞬时频率进行较好的预测,而预测的瞬时频率累积误差会对模态分量的预测距平相关性产生敏感影响,该新方法能够显著提高气候序列高频模态的预测效果。对于气候序列的低频模态分量,集合经验模态分解的边界效应会对瞬时频率的求解产生较大误差,使得序列边界区的幅角计算不准确,导致对低频模态的最终预测效果不理想。对气候序列的高频分量采用幅频分离并进行最小二乘支持向量机预测,而对其低频分量仅采用最小二乘支持向量机进行直接预测,可同时提高高、低频分量的预测效果,并最终提高整个气候序列的预测准确性。该分频预测方法可以使南京降水预测的30候距平相关保持在0.4以上。