前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。     

Unusual spectral absorption observed in the 16 August 1989 limb flare

A relative complete set of He I 10830 Å profiles and their coincident slit-jaw Hα images of the large limb flare (2N/X20) of 16 August 1989 were observed by the solar spectrograph at Purple Mountain Observatory. In addition to the unusually broadened spectral profiles observed in the impulsive phase, more than half of the observed He I 10830 Å profiles are characterized by central reversals, which were detected not only in the impulsive phase but also in the late decaying phase. The central-reversed profiles may exist at different heights, ranging from the solar limb to (3–4) × 10⁴ km above. The absorption varies with time and position, with a typical lifetime and size of several minutes and 5–6 arc sec, respectively. Depths of the absorption profiles also change clearly. The absorptions are usually deeper at the loop footpoint near the solar limb and shallower at loop-top. However, the most unusual feature is that all the line-center wavelengths of them show no shift relative to that of the quiet chromosphere near the limb, implying the apparent velocities are zero while the associated emission profiles have different apparent velocities. Theoretical simulations demonstrate that the Doppler widths of the absorptions are in the range of (0.35–0.5)Å and increase with height, and the source functions are (0.11–0.3) times the disk center intensity. However, the absorptions have a relative large range of optical thickness (0.1–1.3) in the I ₃ component of the He I 10830 Å triplet. We have not observed such absorption in other limb flares, including the SB/X2.9 flare of 17 August 1989 that occurred in the same active region as the studied one (NOAA 5629). Our studies show that the absorption could not result from he scattering by the telluric atmosphere or from normal chromospheric absorption. This unique phenomenon may be related to extra intense X-ray flux and caused by diffuse and non uniform materials dissociated from the flare instead of self-absorption of the flare.     

几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果

为了热烈庆祝中国科学院大气物理研究所成立80周年(1928～2008年),作者谨就五年来中国科学院大气物理研究所的科学家们完成的关于我国气候变异和气候预测方面的研究工作若干新成果作一些非常概要性的介绍,个中也包含一点所外科学家的工作。不周和不当之处只有请读者海涵和批评指正了。本文介绍的主要进展有三个方面:关于我国气候年际变异的研究、ENSO预测研究和数值气候预测研究。     

Observational Study of a Peculiar Solar Limb Event Occurred on 11 January 2002

On 11 January 2002, using the Multi-channel Infrared Solar Spectrograph (MISS) at the Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO), we obtained Hα, Ca ii 8542 Å and He i 10?830 Å spectra and slit-jaw Hα images of a peculiar solar limb event. A close resemblance of its intensity to that of a small flare and the GOES X-ray flux indicates that it was an active prominence. However, its morphological evolution and velocity variation were different from general typical active prominences, such as limb flares, post-flare loops, surges and sprays. It started with the ejection of material from the flare site. In the early phase, the ejecta was as bright as a limb flare and kept rising until reaching the height of (8????10)×10⁴ km at an almost constant velocity of 91.7 km? s ^?1 with its lower part always connected to the solar surface. EUV images in 195 Å show similar structure as in the Hα line, indicating the coexistence of plasmas with temperatures differing by more than two orders of magnitude. Later some material started to fall back to another bright area on the solar surface. The falling material did not show the collimated structure of surges or the arc structure of flaring arches. A red-shift velocity of more than 200 km? s ^?1 was detected in a bright point close to the outer edge of the closed loop system formed later, which dispersed in a few minutes and became a part of the newly formed large loop. The ejected material did not leave the sun, indicating that the magnetic reconnection was not sufficient to remove the overlying field lines during the process. The spectral line profiles showed large widths and variable velocities, and therefore the line-pair method is not applicable to this event for the estimation of physical parameters.     

降尺度方法在东亚气候预测中的应用

东亚气候变异十分复杂,全球动力预测系统对该地气候异常的预测能力偏低,如何进一步提高东亚地区气候异常的预测水平是一个非常重要的科学和现实需求问题。为此,近些年一系列的动力和统计降尺度方法得以发展。本文主要回顾了这些降尺度方法在东亚气候预测研究和实时预测中的应用。首先,文中简要介绍了我国目前应用于实时预测的全球动力预测系统及其性能,这是开展降尺度的科学和技术基础;在此基础上,从区域模式物理过程参数化方案的评估与遴选、区域模式在东亚气候预测中的应用两个方面,对于动力降尺度方法的发展和应用做了回顾;在统计降尺度的综述中,本文主要关注了东亚夏季汛期和冬季气候异常的预测,特别是针对东亚冬季气候异常,本文中提出了新的高效的统计与动力相结合的预测方法。最后,展望了短期气候预测需要进一步深入研究的科学和技术问题。     

循环荷载作用下红黏土累积变形研究

通过GDS动三轴设备对赣南红黏土进行了一系列排水条件下的大次数循环试验,研究不同循环应力比、固结应力比及围压对赣南红黏土累积变形特性的影响。结果表明：在不同固结应力比、固结压力和循环应力比条件下,红黏土的累积应变都呈现出先迅速累积,后增长变缓,最终稳定的趋势;在一定的循环次数之后,不同初始固结应力和不同初始应力比条件下累积应变与循环次数之间的变形规律呈现为线性关系,且初始固结应力和初始固结应力比越小,其线性相关性越好;不同循环应力比下赣南红黏土的平均累积应变速率与循环次数之间也呈现出明显的线性关系。此外,基于以上关系建立了赣南红黏土在长期循环荷载作用下的累积变形预测模型,并通过对比验证了该模型的可行性。     

我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析

利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCCAR4)的15个耦合气候模式在不同排放情景下的模拟结果,对我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场的未来时空变化特征与模式之间的不确定性作了研究。结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,我国夏季降水表现出较强的局地特征。其中,我国东部和高原地区的降水在21世纪表现出明显的增加趋势,而且这种趋势随着变暖的加剧而增强,同时模式模拟结果之间的一致性也更好,表明这一结果的可信度较高。在全球变暖背景下,我国新疆南部地区表现为持续的降水减少趋势,而我国西南地区夏季降水的变化则呈现出先减少(21世纪初)后增加的特征,不同模式对降水这些局地特征的模拟也都表现出较好的一致性。其他地区夏季降水在21世纪的变化不大,同时模式模拟的一致性也较差。多模式模拟的我国未来百年夏季降水的这些变化特征在温室气体高、中、低不同排放情景下基本一致,A2情景预估结果变化最大,A1B次之,B1相对最小。东亚夏季大气环流场的预估结果显示,在全球变暖的背景下,大部分模式的模拟结果都表明,东亚夏季风环流有所增强,从而使得由低纬度大洋和南海地区向我国大陆的水汽输送增加,造成该地区大气含水量的增多,从而为我国东部地区夏季降水的增加提供有利条件。此外,随着全球变暖的加剧,西太平洋副热带高压持续增强,其变化对我国东部地区夏季降水的影响程度和范围也明显增大。这些环流场及其不确定性的分析结果进一步加强了我国夏季降水未来变化预估结果的可信度。     

几种统计预测方法对1998年南京降水的跨季节预测试验及分析

对1998年南京降水分别设计并开展了求和自回归滑动平均（Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）模型预测、经验模态分解（Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD）预测和基于Hilbert变换（HilbertTransformation,HT）的幅频分离预测等3种跨季节统计预测试验。结果表明：ARIMA模型预测结果存在明显的系统性误差且对夏季的降水突变现象预测困难;EMD分解预测的结果虽在降水演变趋势上有明显提高,但仍未能预测出夏季的强降水突变现象,究其原因可能是对高频分量预测效果不好所致;而基于Hilbert变换的幅频分离预测方法能够对各模态分量的瞬时频率和瞬时振幅实施隔离预测,消除两者的相互影响,显著改善高频模态的预测效果,使得最终预测结果最为理想,不仅具有最高的趋势相关性和最小的偏差,而且还较好地预测出了夏季两次强降水过程。不仅如此,在对2003年的降水预测验证中,基于Hilbert变换的幅频分离预测方法同样具有最好的预测效果,表明该方法预测效果较为稳定,为改进跨季节短期气候统计预测技术提供了一个新思路。     

弹性层状半空间中无限长洞室对斜入射平面SH波的三维散射（Ⅰ）——方法及验证

利用间接边界元法, 求解了弹性层状半空间中无限长洞室对斜入射平面SH波的三维散射问题. 通过与文献结果进行对比, 验证了本方法的正确性. 与工程中常用的二维模型比较表明, 工程中将三维散射问题简单地分解为平面内问题和平面外问题的做法存在较大误差. 文中并研究了斜入射角度对散射的影响, 表明斜入射角度对地表位移幅值有着重要影响.      

基于瑞雷波法的都江堰市区场地剪切波速结构

场地剪切波速是建筑抗震设计中不可缺少的基础资料。因此,本文通过多道面波法对都江堰市区进行了剪切波速调查,为都江堰市区的建筑抗震设计及汶川地震的进一步研究提供基本数据。文中利用多道面波分析方法在都江堰市区(E:103°35’～103°41’,N:30°57’～31°02’)布置了35个面波测点进行场地剪切波速结构和覆盖层厚度的调查,测点间距约2 km。获得了都江堰市区场地等效剪切波速(VS20)和场地覆盖层厚度分布。结果显示,都江堰市区的等效剪切波速介于267m/s与389 m/s之间;覆盖层厚度在6～20 m之间。另外,本文利用欧美规范的方法计算了都江堰市区的5 m至20 m的平均剪切波速(TAV),通过对比各个深度的平均剪切波速发现,各个深度的平均剪切波速和VS20具有较高的线性相关性。利用这一特征,本文建立了都江堰市区利用不同深度的平均剪切波速估计VS20的经验公式(VS20=(a±Δa)+(b±Δb).VSz+σ)。利用这一经验关系式可以在都江堰市区钻孔深度或其它测试深度达不到20 m的情况下估计VS20。